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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    You guys aren't going to like the -PDO after the next 15 or so days.. last monthly reading was -2.54. There is a strong correlation Sept-Nov with the following Winter's conditions (more than random chance) so it could weaken after mid-July if we are going to see a good Winter, but it looks like re-strengthening -PDO should occur mid to late-July.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PDO should strengthen the next 15 or so days...
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    QBO is almost negative already! 2023 12.50 9.80 10.93 12.89 9.26 0.72-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index Meaning it's probably going to be a solidly -QBO Winter.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Need to take a break from the rain, and build instability over several days if we are to see another good severe wx threat.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take that one. The way the pattern is flowing, I can envision tracking several storms that could be snow. Winter ridges are not supported by anything in the upper level pattern, and above average snowfall is favored, imo. -PNA's are getting sheared out on MR/LR models May-July. We just really missed it hardcore last year. The Nina was about as strong as it could get relative to global average rising temperature. It's a macro pattern though, favoring just one good track the whole Winter, i.e. smaller events are less likely. Everything seems to run as one unit globally, unlike times like 97-98, meaning a +PNA or GOA low should correlate to trough/storm. That's the pattern.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Raining again here. The 9th or 10th time in the last 2 weeks.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA may bring that SW ridge east through mid/late July.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models have been way below average lately, almost intentionally so: i.e: current conditions impact the long range at about a 0.75 correlation. Warmer or colder than forecasted day goes out to 11-15 day model at like 85-90%. Seems we are in a "sleeping phase" as a whole system.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here is what I came up with.. https://ibb.co/qpJFFdh
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    It kind of irks me that they always have predictability too low on Days 4-8 forecast. See a trough, and forecast out ahead of it.. They bust like crazy. Low risk is 15%, which rarely happens.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Summer's have been relatively cool since year 2000.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    How crazy! When I was a kid... the correlation only intensified.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Our last El Nino Atlantic Hurricane season.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I always get hit in the Winter (north of Baltimore).
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    How about those -NAO extended ridges! We can't get an organic high pressure full rotation counter-clockwise over Greenland these days.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've seen maybe 6-7" in the last 2 weeks.. El Nino is delivering here.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    20 days till the hottest day of the year.. enjoy it.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've noticed this, this year. There is a symmetry to the two atlantic storms- two east pacific storms, and that Cat 5. It seems the pattern is smoothing north, where 35N is the old 30N, as a macro pattern.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural Gas now down to 2.5 after rising from 2.1 to 2.7. It's price action similar to what it was '96-00. Russia remains colder than average.. through July on LR models. So Apr 2022- July 2023 (15 months): Research shows that the next 12+ months features to even out (warmer than average Russia). So DJF would be a composite of warmer than average Russia at like 0.25-30 correlation (I'll run the map when I have time).
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty significant pattern change coming up in 4-5 days..
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't see why not. The NAO is negatively correlating, that's the only difference (-nao is correlating with +EPO/-PNA, +nao is better overall for snowfall). This started in the -PNA extremes after Dec 2010.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Can someone clarify, did Boston see 2" of snowfall Dec-Feb 18-19, or 17-18? I think that and last years snowfall along the coast are two strong plot points for current movement, on the "less" side of possibilities. (I feel Boston has some kind of block around legit extreme snowfall, re: global warming trend at this time. It could snow, but then be followed by warm days.)
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know about that.. maybe people are biased to their personal experiences. Everything about the society seems to "even out".
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA looks to be a constant around Day 5-15+. I have noticed tremendous low model skill vs course correcting a lot in current conditions. When that SE ridge potentially pops in 5 days, and if we get warmer, watch for a trend warmer in the LR.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've seen 4 straight days of 90s across the area, with not much agreement in upper latitude pattern. -NAO now looks to persist next 10 days, this has correlated with extended ridge down the EC lately. The problem I have with 65-66 analog is the -NAO really dug into -PNA SE ridge, forcing trough. The NAO is not even in the same ballpark of pattern these days: we need pacific-forced cold, but a -nao may give us bigger storms to work with. Either way I think the STJ will be pretty juicy as the pattern is macro, Hard to imagine we get a lot of rainstorms if there is a Moderate+ Nino this Winter.
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