Stormchaserchuck1

Pretty big SSW. It would be the first of the cold season.

The low is projected to be 978-979mb in Missouri and Illinois.. maybe they think it will overperform north. I think it's a little too cold up this way for severe wx.

Sorry, but with that N. Pacific High pressure, it's going to bleed warmer in trend downstream.

Here was the GFS https://ibb.co/7dtxM0P9

Maybe we'll turn to some -NAO conditions the last week of March, into early April.. At this time of year the -NAO is 3x more correlated to Stratosphere warming at +15 days vs +0-day.

Storms are moving more W->E, vs S->N lately. Part of that is because patterns like -EPO were more present this Winter, but it's partially an anomaly too. We didn't have a big trough off the west coast in the Gulf of Canada like is typical for us to have big snowstorms, especially in the 2nd half of the Winter there was weak ridging there.

Does a March Stratosphere warming precede a later year El Nino? There is actually a cold 10mb March correlation to following the Fall's +ENSO (map default is positive, + and - included).

Really warming up early today. Already past forecasted high.

Does a relative +PNA Winter precede a later year El Nino? We had an anomalous, relatively positive, PNA this Winter with strong -PDO conditions in the Fall and a borderline Weak La Nina. The thought is, does the atmosphere lead ENSO? Based on 75 years of historical data, the answer is no. Here is the +10 month condition ENSO SSTs with earlier in the year PNA (both pos and neg considered, but the map default is positive) ENSO +10 months after a Winter +PNA Slight opposite correlation.

There's a little Greenland ridge trying to pop at Day 7, but the long range is about as +AO as it gets.

Ensembles say 70s are possible.

^I was about to comment on how the Day 14-16 model projections are about as uniform +AO as it gets throughout the N. Hemisphere. Kind of amazing that 10mb is projected to be warm then, but they are not always connected. Actually I did research once that found that +time lag on Stratosphere warmings are 3x more correlated to the -NAO than Day+0. In this case, a mid to late March warming would correlate with -NAO conditions the last week of March and into early April, as the usual time lag at this time of year is +15 days.

The last 2 Winter's before this one were stormy in the SW, US. I think LA had their coldest January on record 2 years ago. The theory is that weather out there leads us by years.

Same place as we were last year at this time. Summer has been ridgy on the Pacific side. SW, US drought correlates with -PDO rolled forward up to years. Not good that they had so much High pressure this Winter imo.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +4.7 +4.5 +4.6 +7.0 +4.5 +3.8 +3.2 +2.4 -2.7

no way. Index patterns are horrible. We did see somewhat of a La Nina STJ this Winter. This March warm up also fits the decadal RNA pattern that we have seen Feb-March 2018-2024.. it's still alive and going.

Some light snow for northern MD on Tuesday on the GFS

6z GFS ensembles really look warm at the end, with +EPO for mid-March.

We have only had ENSO Neutral 7 of the last 31 years, and that even counts last Winter as ENSO Neutral. We've only had 2-consecutive ENSO Neutral years 1 time since 1994 (12-13, 13-14).

It's not like a pattern that's going to bust colder, without much going on in the upper latitudes. Best we have going is that the NAO is no longer strong positive.. it goes to neutral. Maybe a better chance up your way..

February +PNA rolled forward 2-months is a nice severe wx signal for the Midwest

Enjoy 60s 3 of the next 4 days, with no major index pattern change after that.. NAO neutralizes and PNA starts turning negative..

+QBO/Nina has been one heck of a force to keep the 10mb layer really cold all Winter.. it's made it hard for -AO/NAO episodes to sustain. Imagine like a tornado vortex going from above to the ground.. although there can be wobbles from time to time, the strong vortex comes back to dominate..

96-97 was a pretty early one. I remember, as a kid, early buds on the trees. I was torn when Apr 1, 1997 was originally suppose to give us 12"+ in Baltimore. A lot of people don't know this, but it shifted 1 day before to go north. It was originally expected to be a big one - killing the Early Spring foliage. The early leaves survived.

Does a February Nino 1+2 spike precede El Nino? A lot of people are claiming that an El Nino for 25-26 is underway because Nino 1+2 is near +1.0c right now on some readings. February '25 is the month where it went moderately positive. I don't see this correlation to later in the year on the roll forward, although that is a high correlation for +SSTAs near Asia and in the Atlantic. Nino 3/3.4 are 0.0 correlation.