Stormchaserchuck1

I was going to say - the gfs where it is pretty much is a bullseye.

With High pressure to the north too. It's been rare to have that. In the 1960s it used to happen a lot, but not lately. I'm interested to see if that could lead to big model changes as we get closer. Anyone know when is the last time we had 1030mb High pressure to the NW of a winter storm?

Earlier in the season, models had an army of >1030mb High pressures going from the Midwest to the Northeast from this range or maybe a few days further out... that ended up breaking down and it rained up to Canada with low pressure there instead lol. I'm not saying that's going to happen here.. the EPO is very negative, which correlates high pressure exactly there, and I don't think the EPO was negative early in the season.. but it's something to keep in mind. High pressure in SE Canada/Great Lakes has been a phantom pattern lately, happening only rarely. Will be interesting to see if this maybe trends a little north.

0z EPS looked good with a strong -EPO, High pressure block going north of Alaska That's a cold pattern at the surface, despite +500mb heights.. favors snow and ice. Models have also kind of worked in a 50/50 low for the storm.

06z GFS looks good, with a 1048 HP in the Midwest, and a string of >1030mb High's right to Pennsylvania. Could be a storm with temps in the 20s.

So much for seasonal trend and La Nina lol. That's a completely different pattern this year, if that +PNA verifies. I thought it was strong: record -PDO in the Fall, 7-year streak breaking the record by 150%, and Weak La Nina.... but we have not had -PNA in the Pacific at all this Winter. When it's been modeled, that modeling has quickly changed, now the strongest anomaly on that GEPS map is a Aleutian trough! End of the EPS has an Aleutian trough, too.

Tropical jet in NW Russia! That's a 5820dm anomaly in NW Russia in mid-Winter. The frame before looks like it's >+600dm anomaly. Maybe bluewave has something on how record breaking it is.

0z GEFS concedes to the EPS with now more -NAO conditions in the medium/long range. Did they update the EPS in 2024? It was not this good last Winter.. @psuhoffman I see your point about AO, and this is a pretty clear cut -AO. Might favor a snowstorm when it has a strong anomaly, but I was saying it didn't look that strong in the long range, but the GEFS is moving toward the EPS again. Will be interesting to see if we see a -NAO/-AO dominated cold pattern again.. it seems like it's been a really, really long time since that has been the case.. but now Jan 2024, Dec/Jan 24-25, and if it happens in the next 2 weeks.. that's 3 times lately, after pretty much all SE ridges with -NAO 2016-2023.

We never have negative 500mb. The average high temp at this time of year is low 40s. It will take a lot of High pressure or low level cold to make up the difference. The only time I'm seeing troughs is after storm systems at 288hr. By the way that's the only frame that has a trough. I'm also not opposed to frozen precip when EPO runs negative Days 3-7.

They seem to be in two different camps. EPS has been running cooler. Today it's raining. Maybe the warmer model will win.

I'm biased to the seasonal trend of late and how it tears through MR/LR modeling with regards to -AO/NAO.. remember last year? It was later in the year, but the big -NAO/-AO dominated pattern quickly disappeared.. I have a feeling something will overcome it. possibly the central-Atlantic trough. It's either going to snow or it isn't going to snow.. I say low chances but we'll see soon enough Those waves that occur during -EPO, when the ridge moves over Alaska, are the ones to watch. a bit shorter term.

It's a little -AO ridge for some time, with an undercutting south-based +NAO on GEFS. If the CDC monthly or daily composites page was working, I would show you guys a composite of analogs. Here's hr384 "the magical load up and load up MECS pattern" I've seen the phantom outputs at this time of year.. not really impressed

Maybe it's a -NAO. That central-Atlantic ridge at -250dm is almost the same strength as the block over Greenland.. if that has a stronger anomaly, I'm going to say that it's a dominant pattern, but right now it's probably barely -nao on the eps.

Roads are fine

Good test to see if the -AO can dominate, there are anomalies in the mid-latitudes I don't really like, slight Pacific ridge east of PNA region, and south-based +NAO, although some of you will say that's not a +NAO. It does actually fall under the area (1 of 2) that is more likely to see a dominant anomaly, and there is a slight +temp signal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in that composite. This is why I think oncoming storms may trend warmer than snow.. is that right after a front passes? It seems to be a ridge/trough kind of pattern. Give me a +PNA/-NAO over that any day.

Not real picturesque out there this morning, but here is my Japanese maple

Nice cell in western MD I'm up to 30

A line of storms is forming in Kentucky

Heavier precip moving in now. Temp is 28. Should be nice

29F, rain. Ice on the rails and branches. Sidewalk and driveway just wet.

This one might be more interesting for ice, because we have a -EPO at the time.

WWA's probably too far south

Sleet has started here.

CPC got it wrong too.. they usually do good. I think all seasonal models had a SE ridge.