Stormchaserchuck1

I don't agree that you don't want the El Nino Strong, as long as it stays west-based. Number of examples is too low, and Stronger La Nina's (opposite) correlate with big SE ridge in the Winter

^The subsurface orientation this year is further west than most previous Strong Nino's

Since the 2012 Arctic ice melt low, we've had a lot of cold season -AO with +NAO.. historically the two are much more correlated. I've found that Summer SLP 60-90N precedes the Winter AO state, although it's a reverse correlation, and the NAO decadal continues to be positive. Since 2011, 20/20 months with NAO value >1.11 in DJFM have all been positive!

Interesting to note that we are still holding the "south-based +NAO" pattern with -AO, that started in 13/14, 14/15 and has continued... NAO was like +0.60/month this Winter, which was interesting because it was below average temps, with -AO dominating that.

Maybe but 88-89 was a really Strong Nina. I don't think we will have Moderate-Strong for the next 3 years.

Maybe we'll pop +6c tomorrow or the next day? Very impressive subsurface warmth on the thermocline

I went to Grand Turk, just south of the Bahamas a few days ago. Beautiful beach

SW, US ridge will do that. Best pattern for a tornadoes is a SW, US trough, slight SE ridge, and another trough in the Northeast to near New Foundland.

It's just a middle ground of probability.. where the money is flowing regarding pattern. There is nothing meteorological about it, but some traders may use meteorology to buy/sell the market. I know this board is about discussing scientific theory, etc, but 90% of people really only care about what the Winter will bring so I reference the current trading trend and price, as it is the best guide. If you think it's not good, take up the challenge and trade it! The cold last Winter did more than double the NG price at one point, so accuracy would have been very beneficial to people personally! The cold last winter in the NE was somewhat predictable.

It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year (RONI). Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28.

March we had the 2nd most positive NAO on record, 75 years x 12 months = 900 analogs. This is what the roll forward to May after +NAO March looks like:

We haven't had a single +PDO month yet this decade, in the 2020s. Maybe it will happen with El Nino but I don't know that it will deviate very far from weak.

I think over 500+ years of data there would be no "la nina snap back" in the mean. Something is causing it for the last 100 years though. It would be interesting to know what it is. I don't think it's heat release or anything like that. People describe the transition that has happened, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's because of the first part.

Natural Gas is at the lowest price since 2024, and NG/Crude Oil and NG/Gasoline spread is near record lows. That's a warm sign (or +NAO favored) for next winter.

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere