Stormchaserchuck1

the can'tsips

If Chicago is 0 the rest of the month, they finish +3. And the Euro is showing a big ridge in the medium range. It's not a good forecast, the model can't even factor in the first 6 days right.

LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models Chicago area Iowa

Warm Dec

Ok.. I was under the impression that it was cooler here and cooler in the Rockies. Was just going on memory. I've seen it make some pretty bad short term forecasts the last 2 Summers though. And it was about 2,000 miles off on where the El Nino would be centered, based in the last few months.

Should be interesting to see if we see a +PNA N. Pacific low in October and how much of it. This is quite a streak over the past 7 years: Which has obviously preceded the Winter *2023 was the most n. pacific low +pna of the analog set.

I didn't really notice this before - quite a +AO pattern setting up May - Sept +AO: 2024 2025 2026 Looks super-warm in the Mid-latitudes

^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct

The cansips has a cold bias so it will almost always get the colder Winters. It had 0 to +2 in the Rockies and some places finished +10

The good news for hurricane lovers is that it's looking like a La Nina will develop next year. El Nino also really warms the globe a bit, lagged up to 1 year later, correlating with warmer SSTs. The last 3 Super Nino's have been followed by the following seasons: 2024: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and destructive, featuring 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and causing $131 billion in damage with 442 fatalities. 2016: The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season produced 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with Hurricane Matthew being the strongest at 165 mph and causing over $16.5 billion in damage. 1998: The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was catastrophic, producing 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and causing over 19,600 deaths, making it the second-deadliest season on record.

The southeast doesn't get enough rain? I'll disagree with you on that. Maybe the Southwest.

Check out this cool water in the west - pretty large area with BN

Similarities to 2025. That's what I thought you meant when responding to my post. Edit: nevermind, I see the PNA was negative 3/4 months last year. We are also following 2024 close with the 90N Summer +AO and that had this DJF PNA 1.70 2025 1.05 1.41 80-90N ridging in the Winter sometimes will pop a low south of it, over the Aleutian islands. That's what I mean by +PNA coming from the arctic

That's what the model predicted. I'm not talking about the Great Lakes.