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Stormchaserchuck1

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About Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    As the Kelvin Wave has continued to progress east, TAO/Triton has +4-5c anomalies now under Nino 1+2. Should be interesting to see if it surfaces in the east, along the American coast in the next few weeks. Still to be determined whether it's an east-based, west-based, or basin-wide event. I'm going toward basin-wide.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO has been correlating with an East Coast trough more 23-24, 24-25, 25-26 vs 18-19 to 22-23. NAO is a little more important this coming Winter, I think.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    54 and light rain. At least everything is green
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Days with cool temps usually don't do much severe wx wise in the area. This is 3x this season where they had risk with 50s and 60s and it amounted to nothing.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Was it July 2018 where we got 18"? One of those July's, I remember it raining like crazy Over the years our thunderstorm season has shifted from the Spring to late June and July.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty neutral here
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    What would you say is the chance of a continued El Nino in 27-28? 5%? 10%? I would say 5-10%
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's probably an error. I haven't played around with it yet, but I will probably start keeping a record to see if there is an advantage vs the market. May is 62F - I'm going to say below.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    The actual PDO-Strong El Nino connection is not as strong as you would think. Here is the strongest events, it's pretty close to neutral - bigger cold pool being hugging, right outside the ENSO warm SSTs, I'd say more in the North Pacific High area (-NOI).
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Do you know what the max OHC ever on record is (at all times of the year)?
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what we get for a warm March.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I have found a site that allows you to trade future monthly US Temperature IBKR ForecastTrader May is currently going for 62F. Over or under? +NAO March, which you pointed out as a huge anomaly rolled forward to this May pattern When something is counter-intuitive like that (instead of warm begetting warm), I take note of it as something going on in the evolution of pattern
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    30-day SOI is below -10 for the first time since Feb 2024. It will need to average -10 for the next 2 days to hold that value for Apr - which is indicative of a healthy developing El Nino. Big switch from anomaly in March, where it was +7 and developing Nino's (>1.2 RONI peak) since 1950 had never been above +2
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like the 26c isotherm has made it down the thermocline. Doesn't get much warmer than that. I mean, there's not a perfect correlation of subsurface making it to the surface, but it is pretty high +time. I have also theorized that subsurface anomalies on the thermocline effect the N. pacific pattern, and we are seeing that on current models in May with more +PDO-type patterns, n. pacific 500mb low pressure It must be interesting for deep sea fish in the area to go from 65 degrees to 80 degrees (El Nino) to 55 degrees (La nina), all along the equator. Maybe some interesting evolutions there.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC has +8c anomalies in the central-subsurface, -150m, as of Apr 23.
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