Jump to content

Stormchaserchuck1

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,142

  • Joined

  • Last visited

2 Followers

About Stormchaserchuck1

Profile Information

  • Location:
    Fallston, MD

Recent Profile Visitors

31,558 profile views
  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Euro weeklies have it around the 2nd week of July
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    So much for everyone saying we can't have Super Nino's so close together. That's what I want to stress with a lot of this ENSO stuff, historical data isn't extensive and different periods of time have different conditions that are not universal constants.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everything is always green. We haven't been in a true drought since 2002.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Today's new CPC Winter forecast
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something interesting to ponder is after the 23-24 Super Nino, the Atlantic was warmest ever in 2024. Does the recent trend of -AMO prevail, or do we see the same warming next year (it did have a head start in 2023)?
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    New seasonal and monthly CPC for July and the late Summer looks like a good thunderstorm pattern forecast
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I notice the CPC doesn't even use AI models in their long range forecast, and I can verify that they don't have much skill at that range. EPS is probably still the way to go Saying "AI is the way to go" just makes you look smart imo, not a huge leap from previous models
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    PNA is finally going positive for the first time since early May, for the 2nd half of June. June as a whole will end up being the 5th consecutive month of -PNA though
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 1+2 is +2.8c! July in strongly warm Nino 1+2 years August and September are near average historically, for most of the country. Maybe not enough examples. Let's see if we get a cool October. If the PDO doesn't shift to neutral by then, it counteracts this.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface continues to look really healthy. TAO/Triton will probably pop >+8c in the next few days.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I can never get U of Del Air Temp working on the correlation composite. Is there a secret to it? June will likely be the 5th straight month of -PNA (CPC). I've found that the correlation roll forwards are weak for what happens later in the year, surprisingly.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Moving a little more exponential the last few days Subsurface looks really healthy right now Let's see if the seasonal decadal trend of a ridge in the Rockies/SW gets suppressed this July
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just haven't been able to get Summer Arctic ridging since the ice melt peak in 2012. 15 years is impressive for that record to hold, in this exponentially warming world.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Northern Russia gets 4980dm in mid-June tomorrow. Pretty impressive!
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Probably my best thunderstorm of the year ongoing
×
×
  • Create New...