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Stormchaserchuck1

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Closing in on +4c in Nino 1+2
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    August DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.0
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    +9c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time of this event! It's warming pretty rapidly too, we may see a +10c in a couple of days. That's +18F, so if the water is usually 62F, it's now 80F.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, I thought we were talking about ENSO. 1987 is a really good find, as that was one of the most El Nino Summers on record, JJA ONI was +1.5c, all time record for JJA is +1.6c
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    No one takes it seriously though, because it's used so often. It's a good warning for a thunderstorm coming, I guess, which most people react to.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the real connection is with global temperatures. A huge trough over the North Pacific is necessarily Winter disaster for the east coast.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    *defend the system at all costs* lol I find it's a good topic to discuss here. They are just making people aware of a thunderstorm. It's less about severe intensity these days. We rarely get a severe storm compared to the Midwest though anyway. Not sure why there's near an equal number of warnings issued west to east.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nothing defies the laws of physics lol. July will be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA, and projections through August 15 put it about -0.5 for the month by then. Do we make 7 in a row?
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not sure what you're referring to here. Bluewave just made a good post, showing not a 5 degree difference in the July map, but 180 degrees, opposite. Even if we correlate with cooler conditions for a short time, I don't know that it will sustain. LR CPC outlooks are warm.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere".
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Severe wx warnings never verify here, and every organized storm has a STW these days. I think I've had 43 severe storms warnings since my last severe storm (wind).
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Most Super El Nino's in history had a +AO/+NAO. It's not actually as correlated as that, so the sample is biased a little warm.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    There's a lot of studies connecting things. Luckily we have data to see if it's backed up or not. I do have to admit, you were right about the +PMM leading to an east-based Nino though. The limited examples said Nino 3.4 based and that has not happened over the last few months. One of those things where there weren't enough samples to make that call and you had to use logic or common sense, the +PMM/Nino 1+2 warm worked pretty well, good job
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