Stormchaserchuck1

+PNA and -NAO are dry, but -EPO has a neutral precip correlation plus the most extreme negative temps.. so you could say that the current model look is actually a little better than that time in 95-96, although randomness does spike some storms in the H5 drier patterns.

95-96 was a +PDO, but SSTs are more a reflection of atmospheric conditions, so changing times aren't gauged well by the PDO. This could be one of those anomalous years. I'm actually surprised that the CPC is so cold in their 3-4 week forecast. They have the cold centered in the Tenn valley, which your composite for most snowy Winters showed.

Great pattern continuing on 384hr GFS ensemble Medium and long range models move a lot as per as what is happening currently, so I want see us make it past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO pattern for the validity.

We might be turning the corner to a little more of a snowy time. I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a +NAO January, so if the 1st week ends up with a big Greenland block that is a different pattern than my analogs. I want to see if it stays consistent though, because last year models missed a few times at that range..

Yeah, I haven't seen a 3-4 week look like that in over a year.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

GFS and GFS ensembles got better on 1st week of January pattern today, increasing the -EPO signal This is LR GFS, but it's what models are showing right now, with big ridges pinching north. I would definitely take my chances with this in early Jan. Let's see if it stays consistent or changes in the next few days.

Still snowing pretty good here 6th time it's snowed this year already

EPO is raging positive.. it usually busts warm.

Very cool from a meteorological standpoint! We get to witness a 1/170 year event, this -PDO. Being aware of it as it happens gives us a good read on what the index is, and what it produces. Like I said, it's been hitting its matching pattern the last 4 Winter's. I don't really think this +pna can sustain, although some analog sets like warm Phoenix in the Summer/Fall did show that through January. February seems like an easier call on -pna..

Cold ENSO subsurface is making a comeback in the last few days! If it sustains, I've found that it correlates with a -PNA January. This I would say is like a "Weak Nina".

Latest Hrr was actually pretty aggressive there RAP is rain for the area lol. It will probably snow a little bit. It's cold.

Maybe the models are weighing too heavily the MJO? Should be interesting to see if it holds this look the next few days.. I also think at that time we are hitting Day 40 on the +PNA phase, which is usually a complete cycle.

This doesn't look so bad on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean The thing is, I'm suspicious of the big +EPO ridge turning into a -NAO in the medium range (usually they don't run into each other like that). And for the last few days, the long range GEFS has tried to build a -EPO at the 384hr range, to lose it lately. That Pacific pattern has been stuck there for the last 3 days. Let's see what happens when we get closer. Verbatim, it's a good look, but I don't really like the evolution to getting there. It might end up verifying as a slight -pna or something warmer. That particular panel, the way that it is, looks good though. Let's see if the MJO remains strong going into the later phases.. Usually after such a strong +EPO, at H5 the pattern has to reload though. The ridging usually doesn't just go poleward all around and give us snow.

Good work. This is what the Dec +PNA rolls forward to -30dm Gulf of Alaska Low. Long range models are already picking up on this pattern, where the cold anomaly goes into Alaska, for the end of December. I have often seen when there is a signal ++time, it usually happens before that. Your examples look like 4/5 they hold, but I would be surprised given the state of other things. I did roll forward record-breaking heat in Phoenix during the Summer, and it gave me a +PNA signal for the following Dec-Jan.