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About Stormchaserchuck1
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Fallston, MD
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CPC going with El Nino almost to a T
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Little bit of temp bust today, it was suppose to be low 70s and at 3pm it's only gotten to 65
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
CPC 3-4 Week forecast going with an El Nino precip pattern.. should be interesting to see if it verifies, it's been running dry -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
June Nino 3.4 -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now. -
@CAPE I dont get it either Chargers RB Keaton Mitchell calls out Ravens for spurning him in free agency They aren't able to extend Lamar either. He knows that he's worth more than Jordan Love, Tua, Dak Prescott, etc.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
ENSO vs PNA VP -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. -
0z EPS looks close to mid 90s, Tues May 19.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Nice 3 day run of -SOI 14 May 2026 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 -5.70 -0.07 13 May 2026 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 -5.50 0.32 12 May 2026 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78 -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower? -
Nice pattern coming up Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Monday Sunny, with a high near 90. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The 8 driest El Nino's with a RONI peak >+1.1 came out ... 2 El Nino - 3 Neutral - 3 La Nina the year after [27-28] ... the average RONI that next year is -0.15/yr.

