Stormchaserchuck1

12z EPS

It's a pretty warm 500mb pattern coming up - Models have been too aggressive on the pattern this Winter, so we'll see how it pans out, but some areas in the Midwest may get very warm in early March

Here comes the warmer subsurface (20c Isotherm Depth), leading the surface by several months, like usual

Satellite from this morning

Definitely not complaining. I was in Manassas, VA Friday and it was 60 degrees there, so hot in the sun. Glad this could happen right after!

Looks like I got about 6"

In 3 days we lose this current polar-tilting ridge across Alaska (-EPO) to a Polar Vortex placement over northern Greenland and Alaska (+NAO/+EPO). That warms the CONUS pattern very quickly. A ridge starts building in the Mid Atlantic the last day of February and the GEFS has that persisting really through the 2nd week of March. Seasonal trend has been to cool the Northeast, US, so maybe the warm temps will be confined to the Southeast and Midwest, but it's not really a cold pattern that we need at this time of the year for snow.. Best case scenario is something like today again.

We are so sensitive to the freezing line though. The lowest Baltimore's daily high goes is 38F and DC is 40F. So we pretty much need below average temps at any time of the year to get snow. Therefore when you have a constant, perpetually bad pattern for an extended amount of time (Feb-March 2018-2026 DM anomaly in the PNA region is 160% #2 on record), this area can snow drought for sure. You know this, and there can be 60", 80", 100" snow seasons here as well. So I think you are looking at too short of a timeframe in an unfavorable cycle. But this is more about people enjoying their snow so maybe we can finish some other time.

02-03 I had 125".. that wasn't too long ago. We have been in a horrible -PNA/+NAO pattern for the last 10 years. Take decadal cycle flux out of the equation and we are maybe 10-15% less.

It's going to bust around here. NWS within the last hour updated saying we are still getting 8". I'm thinking maybe 3-4"

Starting to land on grass here.

Really surprising given the 500mb pattern on models. I guess they think the colder trend of the Winter will continue.

Most places are near average snowfall after today and Dec-Feb will be below average temps every month? The pattern does look really warm a few days after this storm and after. Completely different upper latitude alignment coming, it looks like ENSEMBLE LOOP