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Stormchaserchuck1

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts: There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC says above average comes back
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something to look out for is how cool October usually is in El Nino PDO has opposite correlation though, and it's strongest month of the year is October so we'll see how the battle of -PDO vs Super Nino goes, going forward.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are mostly getting this cool down because of -NAO, and less to do with the Pacific (El Nino's greatest effect). There is a trough in the GOA for a little while, but it's still not canonical El Nino in the Pacific.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm just saying... in the last 3 Winter's it's come within +0.25 of actual DJFM NAO each time. That can range from +2 to -2 so that's pretty good. It's hard to tell exact number this year because what I based it on, NCAR, has been discontinued, but based on TT dailies, it is negative right now.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually the cold blob AGW based is just south of Greenland, which is a +NAO tendency. I'm pointing out a cold pool south of New Foundland. Here is the correlation composite Here is the trend in global temperature. The cold blob does not overloap my -NAO favored area (above map is default positive so it's opposite for -NAO predictor). If anything the Atlantic cold blob is a Winter +NAO favored tendency, by a lot actually. Furthermore, my May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTA index has not had a net -NAO prediction in a long time. I discovered the method in 2005, and have been practicing it every year since then. It is 15-5 at getting the Winter sign correctly, and within my estimated 0.54SD, it has performed 11-9. So it's not some random thing that I am assume - I have been testing it and it has been working.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh I thought it was rhetorical lol
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't call it big +NAO. It looks pretty neutral as a Winter average January the coldest month of the year was -NAO 97-98 had potential to be a good Winter imo. The N. pacific trough extending north into +EPO, further north than mean of other El Nino's, tipped that one warm. Remember the EPO is the most sensitive and volatile region for CONUS temps. For north in latitude isn't necessarily as connected to ENSO as Hadley/mid-latitude cell.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's really been a story for a long time now. Since 2012, Summer Arctic Summer SLP anomaly (60-90) has reversed for the following Winter almost every time! Gawx showing cold records consistently happening there this warm season is a strong signal for Winter -AO I believe.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Decadal trend lines of NAO are pretty linear with what's happening. We've had pretty much 14 straight +NAO Winter's, at the height of this decadal +NAO phase. Some think it's associated with lagged +AMO. Over the next several decades the "long term cold blob" will likely be somewhere else or reverse.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    +2.03c on this date is greater than +1.7c in 1997 and 2015 at this time for highest since 1950 (+16%!)
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    2 good signs for the Winter: 1) SSTA south of New Foundland is cold. This is up to 65% correlated to DJFM -NAO 2)-PDO is cooling off a bit
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    IRI model consensus of +3.05c would make it the Strongest El Nino on record since 1950 by +0.25c (NDJ 15-16, +2.8c) [ONI]. Number 2 is +2.4c (ONDJ 97-98), which it would beat by more than 20%! Since 1950, there has never been a La Nina <-2.0c.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a good point. This is 2 years after a Solar Max: We know that +AO/NAO is favored +1-5 years after Solar Max. Also, 4/5 Super east-based Nino's have happened during +NAO decadal phase (82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24 -vs- 72,73). This year will make 5/6 Super Nino's happening in +NAO decadal unless we see a 09-10 type -NAO season. Check it out.. 13 February's in a row have had +NAO, and most are >+1.00 NAO! 2014 1.34 2015 1.32 2016 1.58 2017 1.00 2018 1.58 2019 0.29 2020 1.26 2021 0.14 2022 1.68 2023 0.92 2024 1.09 2025 1.60 2026 0.68
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I am so curious to see what pattern we have over the Arctic next Summer after this Super, perhaps record breaking El Nino. The correlation with Nino 1+2 +time is fairly weak Nino 3.4
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