Stormchaserchuck1

I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean.

Cooler start to May March 2026 was 2nd most positive NAO on record out of 900 analogs. Roll forward to May looks like a match:

91-92 is my favorite analog right now

Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions.

I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years.

Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's: 6-14 day CPC forecast

Let's see if it makes it all the way to Nino 1+2

Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs. >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m

^Matching developing El Nino's in Apr-May

36/18

I'm not too upset about missing the HECS because it would have been gone in a few days. The Jan 25 storm sticking around for 4th longest on Baltimore record makes this Winter, imo. even though there could have been more light snow events. I think it only snowed here (flurries or more) 11 times the whole Winter. 19 last Winter, and under 10 each of the previous Winters since 2018. A light snowfall drought. Such a thing actually predicts future Winters at 0.2 correlation.

Already 38 here

What is this?? New Acquisition: The Los Angeles Chargers sign former Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell to a 2-year, $9.25 million contract with $5 million guaranteed. Mitchell averaged 6.3 yards per carry

Springs are early: good We get good thunderstorms in the late Spring/Summer 9 warm months of the year The Winter sucks lol Ravens are one of the best NFL franchises

Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface.