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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, historical composite is somewhat limited. There were plenty of +EPO/+WPO La Nina's in the 1895-1948 dataset.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    That kind of SSTA orientation in the N. Atlantic right now favors a -NAO Winter.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    My point is they are one in the same - If you take the chlorophyll out of 1 green leaf, it is X amount of chlorophyll "Weak". If you take the chlorophyll out of 5 green leaves, it is still 5x amount of chlorophyll "Super". Everyone thinks ENSO events are a different entity in different strengths. That's not true at all. It's true that where they are based or dominant makes a difference, but a "Super Nino" is not actually different from "Weak Nino" except that it's impact - on the same thing - is greater.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    July ECMWF run.. it has a warm bias but wow
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Science forum bro. I don't think a -EPO can't happen.. that's more possible than historical analog suggests, but +PNA has been really hard to come by in this peak decadal -PDO or whatever is going on.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Finally! Let's see if it holds for more than a couple of days.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I think it was you that made the good point that the S. Hemisphere Winter has high correlation, and a trough is usually dominant in El Nino's. We haven't seen that so far this year. An El Nino this strong should still show something vs recent climo imo.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hadley Cell contraction in July 1972, 1982, 1997. Not so much in 2015, 2023. We are still following closer analogs most closely
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe a little bit of an extreme bias If we continue to see no Hadley Cell contraction that would really be something!
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    That N. Pacific Low is in the perfect position for our historical analog snowstorms. And -NAO, just put a 50/50 low underneath like mitchnick said it would look really favorable. Unfortunately, seasonal models have a huge ENSO bias. We have not seen a North Pacific low for more than a few days since January, July will be the 6th month in a row of -PNA. Just not getting that pattern at all right now. In 2023 it was never occurring too, and seasonal models kept outputting the same default ENSO, which didn't verify.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    It would be nice to get a N. Pacific trough at all, for all the models showing this for the Winter
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think a Winter -EPO El Nino is impossible. Further north it's more random than the mid-latitudes and the historical analog composite is probably biased to +epo (same with +ao and +nao of super Nino's). The warmth is definitely winning the battles in 2026 so far, however.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will it show the lowest DM ever recorded in US?
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