Stormchaserchuck1

Warm pattern setting up for the 1st week of March.. strong ensemble signal for long range

I just know what people were posting here in the storm thread. They were showing like 2-4" in DC and Baltimore as late as last night! It was obvious 5+ days ago that this was a rainstorm.

Yeah.. I've seen them be constantly wrong since appearing on model pages. NWS doesn't even use them. 3 days ago I think they were showing 11" of snow here on the ensemble mean! I don't know why they are so flawed- it's suppose to be a new model. There have been bulletins I think saying don't use them.

For those interested in the climate indexes discussion: check out 2026-2027 El Nino thread

I find this to be an good coincidence -- I say coincidence because the QBO is a Stratosphere index. But since the QBO 30mb data started in 1979, every single December (6) in QBO >+5 and ENSO +El Nino -- has had the same anomaly temperature pattern. There is a >80% chance this will be this upcoming December (+QBO/+ENSO). Not only is every map the same, but they are strong anomalies in the Northeast and Great Lakes in every example. Will be interesting to see what happens in December 2026: Following January in +QBO/El Nino: The map skews warmer for El Nino because the +QBO state favors a stronger Stratosphere Polar Vortex. This has correlation with +AO in the +0-day. Not a definite constant, but a higher average in the mean (deep 10mb SPV) -- El nino by itself correlates with more High pressure in the Stratosphere.

It's basically a fiction thread if all you're going to be doing is posting long range AI snow maps.

I didn't realize the 1970s were our most snowless decade until this one. I guess the cold/dry thing is bigger than you would think.

NAO's lowest Winter (DJFM) reading since 2010-2011 was -0.24. 14/15 Winter's were >0 NAO. Months with Winter NAO >1.11 were 19 positive, and 0 negative since 2010-11. That's a significant piece to the puzzle - we are max +NAO decadal for the last 15 years. Add in the strong -PNA that we have seen Feb-March 2018-2026 and it starts to make a little more sense. Not to say that the average snowfall hasn't dropped, but it's not as big as it appears.

Ok.. yeah unfortunately going through and making custom indexes probably yields the greatest correlation value. That's what I did for the Stratosphere and AO/NAO.

CPC isn't perfect too.. this pattern last Winter was called +PNA. This would have been "positive" on your graph. 2025 1 15 0.8425661297669382 2025 1 16 0.6292797257596462 2025 1 17 0.3591812956820121 2025 1 18 0.2963853705652808 2025 1 19 0.25645632216650666 2025 1 20 0.19665558838216474 2025 1 21 0.16494891370677975 2025 1 22 0.3096868402976654 2025 1 23 0.16090618641248808 2025 1 24 0.090735 2025 1 25 -0.00812 2025 1 26 -0.00391 2025 1 27 0.1299644364430 1287 2025 1 28 0.058971 2025 1 29 0.075685 2025 1 30 0.22591144673920 158 2025 1 31 0.28769816664388287 2025 2 1 0.23227473560905743 2025 2 2 0.061725 2025 2 3 -0.15733 2025 2 4 -0.14046 2025 2 5 0.22531992513175264

Are you using the DM or CPC indexes? The CPC balances and evens it all out, so negative is just as probable as positive. Side note, but they are really moving toward RONI for ENSO monitoring: Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO

Can you do it with >1std to the index pattern? I know sometimes a good gulf of alaska low pressure pattern will be called +EPO.

^I don't see + - ++. Are you sure you aren't calling the last one +PNA the opposite?

It's a longwave pattern, so the 7+ days of highs in the 50s could happen + days. It probably gets warmer past the end of these ensemble runs honestly vs before. It's far ways out though, but you can nail index and general whole areas-of the hemisphere with the ensembles here. If they had neutral PNA/EPO and US ridging, you could say maybe not.. but the H5 is in a strong state on the ensemble mean so the 1st week of March is probably above average temps