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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not sure what you're referring to here. Bluewave just made a good post, showing not a 5 degree difference in the July map, but 180 degrees, opposite. Even if we correlate with cooler conditions for a short time, I don't know that it will sustain. LR CPC outlooks are warm.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere".
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Severe wx warnings never verify here, and every organized storm has a STW these days. I think I've had 43 severe storms warnings since my last severe storm (wind).
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Most Super El Nino's in history had a +AO/+NAO. It's not actually as correlated as that, so the sample is biased a little warm.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    There's a lot of studies connecting things. Luckily we have data to see if it's backed up or not. I do have to admit, you were right about the +PMM leading to an east-based Nino though. The limited examples said Nino 3.4 based and that has not happened over the last few months. One of those things where there weren't enough samples to make that call and you had to use logic or common sense, the +PMM/Nino 1+2 warm worked pretty well, good job
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just really pretty muted. If anything the orientation of precip is more La Nina like for +QBO. You are going to get some colors when it's only 64 years, random.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Be careful connecting QBO to STJ, as the QBO is a Stratosphere wind oscillation. The correlations with the troposphere run pretty low, AO-correlation being the highest.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is looking like we're going to pop a +9c soon on TAO/Triton. It's warming currently as the Kelvin wave moves east. That would put us ahead of 1997.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    02-03 had plenty of examples.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    It was my first snowless Winter as a kid. Thankgoodness I didn't know about ENSO yet or I would have really realized the potential that could have been, especially with -NAO January. I think the AO will be more negative this coming Winter, which is good- widespread cold at times.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was just mentioning that your analog composite of <-60dm for DJFM is probably too low. I used 6 straight months of -PNA as an example. That doesn't mean I expect the PNA to be negative, just that there are competing forces right now.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah last Winter we had something like the 4th longest streak since the 1800s where Baltimore had >6" on the ground (22 days or something). I love that - 8" of snow and 3" of ice on top there for almost a whole month of the Winter! That storm was really anomalous to the overall pattern last Winter. I'm glad it was timed at the beginning of the pattern.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well I can at least say with high confidence that it won't be a DJFM <-60dm anomaly in the N. Pacific. In these different times, analogs only go so far (our historical database is somewhat limited to larger cycles). It will certainly be interesting to see what goes on in the N. Pacific this Fall/Winter with the SOI as a top-5 negative event since the 1800s. The SOI being positive relative to ENSO was correlating with -PNA, but now that's not the case this year.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I had my biggest Winter last year since returning from CA in 2017, 24" here. -AO was the reason for that: but it was a dry pattern. In normal precip we could have done better. Kind of disappointing the last 2 Winters have been cold with below average snowfall.
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