Stormchaserchuck1

498dm low in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days.

498dm in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days. Continuing the warm season theme from 2024 and 2025.

Must be one heck of an El Nino pattern in the Southern Hemisphere.

Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016.

^Look at all that water. Good sign for the Winter probably if it gets cold enough.

Should be interesting to see if we follow the last 3 El Nino's post-2016 PDO-change in October with a SE ridge and an area of real cold. 1948-2020 Oct Nino:

lmao You should have seen how far off it was Days 1-5

Here bluewave posted this in another thread

I think the US record is 6038dm or something like that.. imagine challenging it in mid-September, and not even over the most favorable zone SW, US

Are we really getting such a large 500mb ridge? Surface temps aren't as impressive as H5. That's actually not too far away from the all time US record. I wonder if we are shattering mid-Sept US record?

Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold? I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao.

Nice run of -SOI 14 Sep 2026 1012.86 1014.90 -25.91 -17.50 -20.30 13 Sep 2026 1013.56 1015.55 -25.61 -17.44 -20.04 12 Sep 2026 1012.91 1015.60 -29.77 -17.32 -19.89 11 Sep 2026 1012.86 1015.40 -28.88 -16.53 -19.86 10 Sep 2026 1012.90 1013.90 -19.73 -15.51 -19.92 9 Sep 2026 1013.04 1013.40 -15.92 -14.62 -20.08 8 Sep 2026 1012.32 1014.50 -26.74 -14.02 -20.17 7 Sep 2026 1013.24 1015.10 -24.84 -13.46 -20.04 6 Sep 2026 1014.43 1015.70 -21.33 -13.18 -19.91

^Looks like it predicted the N. Pacific ridge too, which is rare in El Nino.

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO.

Who's the number 1 WR without Zay and Lane, Bateman? He had about 10 catches last year. We also don't have Likely anymore who had a monster game and is a reason the Giants beat DAL