Stormchaserchuck1
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I don't see any precip trends different from the decadal trends so far this year. Since 2017 we have been very wet July/Aug and dry Sept/Oct. Extended models are all showing above average precip from ENSO, but I just don't know that that's started yet.
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It's like when you turn the heat to your house up to 90 degrees. It's never been at 90 before, it's uncharted territory!
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November. Time to start looking for the first flakes. Everything in my garden is still alive, tomatoes still healthy lol. +QBO/East-based Nino runs warm for November. Usually that's because of a cold Stratosphere, but it looks like this Nov we have a warming, followed by the long range models strengthening SPV for December. Imo, the pattern associated with -PDO is currently displacing ENSO/N. Pacific pattern eastward - models have -150dm in the PNW In Nov which is not typical of El Nino. Here is today's CPC forecast for November Analog-wise, Nov departures for the CONUS have 57% correlation to DJFM (filtering out global warming). Without filtering global warming it's about 66%.
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November DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 3.2 3.1 4.5 1.6 0.1 1.8 1.1 3.1 -
09-10 was Canada's warmest Winter on record
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Kind of a nice cloudy day today. Seems like it's been a while 2017-on has been above average precip July/Aug then below Sept/Oct
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CommodityWx has posted some incorrect stuff, surprising. The greatest effects from an early Nov Stratosphere warming are probable -AO effects 35-45 days later.
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A lot of people don't know this, but a composite for the most warm 10mb Winters (NDJFM) have above average temps in the Northeast, US and cold Stratosphere Winters below average temps in the Northeast, US. The anomaly over Greenland extends south. Of course in shorter time periods there is AO-correlation.
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The only other time in recorded history we had 5/6 La nina years, we didn't have another La Nina for 7 years following that. And the PDO switched to positive in that time. 20-26 we again had 5/6 La Nina's, so the reversal was not that surprising imo.
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Yeah, the Nov correlation maps are stronger over NAO area than N. Pacific. You're right. But the pattern does start in October and over enough examples might not skip a month (although Oct is further west with the pattern - you're right).
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I've already told you this, but the historical ENSO-N. Pacific trough correlation is -0.38 for Oct-Nov combined and -0.32 for Dec.
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The Nino is not impacting the N. Pacific that much. If we can get a sustained -AO period, I don't see why it can't get cool, even Dec.
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