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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    June PNA will likely finish <-1, but it doesn't have a high correlation to the Winter, surprisingly
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    We get a little low south of the Aleutians Days 5-9. Around Day 10 a ridge is building into the Gulf of Alaska. I guess you can say that's close, but a slight difference west makes it more -PNA. I'm just really looking at the PNA, June will likely be the 5th consecutive month of -pna, and the average is no joke, it's less than -1/month 1965, 1982, and 2023 all had a 4-month streak of -PNA that were broken in June.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    June is typically not a big month for ENSO to effect the N. Hemisphere pattern, but we continue to see differences in the North Pacific
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^It updates at 2am?
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I had a nice rainstorm, but no lightning and thunder so technically speaking I still haven't had 1st thunderstorm of the year, despite 4 high risk days (SPC). This one was severe thunderstorm warned, don't know why. The sky was dark but that's about it.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Massive round of -SOI.. 30-day below -18, which 23-24 never did. 15-16 peaked at -22. 97-98 is the next higher up (although there was 1-month strong dip in Feb 2005). 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 What we have been calling -PDO may have actually been more of a -ENSO decadal state. 82-83 is the real one to beat, that had a streak of 3/4 months <-30 SOI.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe some strong thunderstorms if we get a good trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC continues to go El Nino in long range STJ predictions
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Euro and CANSIPS completely different over the EPO domain for the Winter.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^You were right about the lagged warming after the SOI.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe biased a little extreme, but the Euro is legit seasonal model.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say the more positive the better, main effect of PDO is PNA/EPO which the stronger they go, they stronger our troughs are here on the East Coast. The PDO has steep incline to Winter effect the further in the year you go. Here's the lagged correlation: So Fall PDO is 2x more important than Spring PDO.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Big differences between Winter 15-16 and 23-24, probably contributed to something along the lines of the PDO (15-16 was >+1, 23-24 was <-1).
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    There has been much less of them for the last few years, like a fraction! In 2013 when I was in Sedona, AZ there must have been 300+, the sky looked like hell.
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