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Stormchaserchuck1

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About Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Most historical Super east-based Nino's had Winter +NAO. A lot of the seasonal models have more -NAO this Winter.. I said it before, give me -NAO with Super Nino STJ anytime, regardless of the Pacific. It does makes sense that an El Nino would have more -NAO than 48-20 composite because it goes with a tendency to warm 10mb. But we have +QBO this Winter which is a counter to that. And we haven't had a true -NAO Winter in 14 years. But logistically speaking late Summer has been cool locally.. just like the last 2 years. It will snow this year, low odds of a Dec-Mar wall-to-wall torch like 97-98 imo
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Monster N. Pacific low finally.. -250dm. You never get -250dm on the D10 ensemble mean unless it's a special circumstance. https://ibb.co/6RK3BJMZ
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hopefully this can make it to the threads most liked post, instead of all that drama stuff
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    +11c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton.. highest of the event so far.. still strengthening. Normal 60F water is 80F. That's why Charles Darwin chose the area for evolutionary thesis.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the GFS ensembles have trended toward more +PNA in the long range.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    This may not be the classic El Nino pattern for October, but it is +AAM in the northern latitudes AAM cycles usually reverse every 40-45 days so I'd expect something non-El Nino like in mid November
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the 1st one dropped 46" max over the Big island.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    3rd hit of the season for Hawaii!
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was thinking it looks like a Modoki La Nina/east-based El Nino at the same time
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    "All it takes is one storm" So you are stalking out Winter for 6 months for 18 hours of snowfall? No thanks, give me 20 light snow events, "snowfall days". My trees are already losing leaves - the most depressing 6 months of the year for 1 storm, no lol.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was saying well before the season that the Ravens weakest part was WR. Having a rookie 3rd round draft pick as your number 2 is not good, and now he's on IR. It's no surprise NO won, they were actually getting hot and the end of last season, the 2nd year QB has been doing good. I picked them to win their division this year.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Seasonal models and even CPC long range forecasts gravitate towards average. And it doesn't really account for global warming. If the models has you in like +1.5f, expect their being right as really being +4
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    A big issue I see with the CFS is, with the Winter 500mb pattern being modeled over the N. Pacific, you aren't going to get that strong of an East Coast trough. Since 2016 the Pacific has held much more weight than the NAO. Then again as I already mentioned in this thread, in 2024 and 2025 I saw runs of the CFS having -38F anomalies in the NW, US for the whole month of December! Can you believe they ended up well above average?
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wierd.. why would the NAO be negative all of a sudden? It hasn't been negative in 14 years, and this is the ripe +year time after Solar Max and strong +QBO.. not saying it's impossible but I think they are displacing the El Nino N. American ridge.
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