Stormchaserchuck1

Really warming up in the eastern-subsurface. Probably going to start to surface in the next month or so. SOI isn't on board yet, but it has been lagging the last 3 years: 25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25 24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all 23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month.

Colder Spring probablity? AO/NAO/AAO run in decadal patterns, and run pretty together. Sept-Dec 2025 had a pretty good run of -AAO: 2025 -0.080 -0.271 0.733 1.138 0.509 0.209 0.753 0.357 -0.709 -1.236 -1.324 -1.136 That rolls forward to a -NAO signal for the following N. Hemisphere Spring (+6 months) [map correlation is default positive, with both sides included, so for -AAO it's opposite]

5 month SOI.. Oct-Feb 25-26 is still going to be the highest since 2022. And we're seeing more of a Nina pattern here in the 2nd part of February and March, despite warm subsurface

Warmer overall right now, but not a "classic warming" This Winter is going to finish with greater warm anomalies than cold anomalies at 10mb.. which matches QBO. For the 4th Winter in a row.

SOI has been lagging the last few years 25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25 24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all 23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month.

Still no signs of pattern change in March on long range ensemble models

I still have full snowcover from Jan 25. This was just taken

560dm ridge over DC?.. hmm might have a tough time cooling down

I think temps are going to be an issue

^Pretty warm look. Models haven't really been verifying that pattern this Winter though - let's see if it holds as we get closer, but +nao/+epo combo can be pretty warm and sustained for a little bit of time.

Transition to El Nino should be fast

It's been 13 years since the last max.. You would think we would start moving toward loss exponentially again. Big difference has been cold 500mb and SLP over the Arctic in the warm season. Last strong High pressure Summer pattern was 2019.

Kind of hard to say. A lot of energy on the "X-ing" sound. Wouldn't be surprised if they start saying "maxin"

I mean, yeah, this doesn't look so bad. Much better than it did a few days ago. But sometimes when temps bust 5-10F warmer with an oncoming ridge, this trends less favorable in the next bit of time.

I don't think it's broadbrushed like that. You keeping pointing out anomalies, I'm saying that the mean is X. I'm basing this on 73 years x 28 days, so 2,044 analogs: So if our average high is mid 40s, that's upper 40s to near 50 on the mean. the average of 2,044 analogs.