Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah.. I mean they are big misses

12z Hrr and NAM want nothing to do with the 2nd system

Whoa! 2-3" snow depth tomorrow between Westminster and Hagerstown on the 12z NAM

12z Hrr has a pretty good band coming through 12z-16z tomorrow. Has up to 1" snow depth near the MD/PA line.

Yeah, that and the ridge over Alaska and the Bering Strait is why there's so much strong arctic High pressure to the north. I would love for this to hold. In the last 20 years a heavy qpf storm with really strong High pressure over the great lakes or southern Canada has been really rare.

9z RAP actually has a nice little burst 11am-12pm Sat

+NAO/-WPO/-EPO's can be icy. A strong High holds in southern Canada for a parade of storms on this run of gfs.

Well here's this storm.. we have a 1030mb High over the Great Lakes. +NAO is bringing the jet stream a little north though

6z GFS is a little bit of a hit.

Man does this cold air intrusion look good.. let's see if following waves down the line make it to snow.

+0.5 correlation is one side more than another, so 75/100 overall. 0.0 correlation is 50/100. I'm talking about % chance of an outcome. That makes +0.25 correlation 62.5/100 overall. -0.5 correlation would be 25/100. I use the CDC linear correlation maps as a base, and they use all data, positive and negative, 1948-2020.

Believe it or not though, the 3 lowest PDO's on record for the preceding Summer or Fall were all cold following Dec-Jan's in the Northeast (1955-6, 2024-5, 2025-6).

It's kind of hard to explain the 1980s cold phase otherwise. We have seen, on record, 5 swings between positive and negative, each spanning about the same amount of time. I think recent +AMO in comparison to global SSTA does look about even though. In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic was warmest on record, and that fit a typical std a the peak of an AMO cycle. Would I say that the 2030s and 2040s will probably be -AMO, or cold Atlantic SSTA? lol, probably not. But I do think it could come down to near average for a few decades, or at least stop breaking records. That's one thing I honestly have to read more up on.

Well -NAO's are happening much more frequently during, or after, Solar Min's than Solar Maxes. We had a Solar Max until Summer 2025, so there is actually a 0 to +4 year lag after Solar Max for cold season +NAO (0.25 correlation, or 62.5% of the time), and a 0 to +4 year lag after Solar Min for cold season -NAO (0.25 correlation, or 62.5% of the time). The lag after Solar Cycle has us in +NAO probability until Summer 2029.

In January 2024 we got some snow events when the NAO went negative. In stronger El Nino's with a big low pressure in the N. Pacific, a -NAO could be the difference between nothing and a big one. I just don't think we are there with the NAO yet at least consistently, maybe in 5-10 years..