Stormchaserchuck1

That's a monster +AO pattern lol Since the Solar Max peak in 2024, the warm seasons 2024, 2025 and 2026 have been very +ao. I think it's more of a decadal state, and just minimizes the potential for 09-10 type -NAO or 15-16 type +PNA

A seasonal model is never going to predict more than like a +3F month. That's because their accuracy is low and they have a large range of error. East-based Nino/-PDO is about as bad as it gets for long range predictors of Winter CONUS warmth. Hopefully the AO help this year. Baltimore/DC average high never really goes below 40 so we do need some below average temps.

the can'tsips

If Chicago is 0 the rest of the month, they finish +3. And the Euro is showing a big ridge in the medium range. It's not a good forecast, the model can't even factor in the first 6 days right.

LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models Chicago area Iowa

Warm Dec

Ok.. I was under the impression that it was cooler here and cooler in the Rockies. Was just going on memory. I've seen it make some pretty bad short term forecasts the last 2 Summers though. And it was about 2,000 miles off on where the El Nino would be centered, based in the last few months.

Should be interesting to see if we see a +PNA N. Pacific low in October and how much of it. This is quite a streak over the past 7 years: Which has obviously preceded the Winter *2023 was the most n. pacific low +pna of the analog set.

I didn't really notice this before - quite a +AO pattern setting up May - Sept +AO: 2024 2025 2026 Looks super-warm in the Mid-latitudes

^ Should get some 500mb effect in the N. Pacific if that forecast verifies for early Oct

The cansips has a cold bias so it will almost always get the colder Winters. It had 0 to +2 in the Rockies and some places finished +10

The good news for hurricane lovers is that it's looking like a La Nina will develop next year. El Nino also really warms the globe a bit, lagged up to 1 year later, correlating with warmer SSTs. The last 3 Super Nino's have been followed by the following seasons: 2024: The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active and destructive, featuring 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and causing $131 billion in damage with 442 fatalities. 2016: The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season produced 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with Hurricane Matthew being the strongest at 165 mph and causing over $16.5 billion in damage. 1998: The 1998 Atlantic hurricane season was catastrophic, producing 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and causing over 19,600 deaths, making it the second-deadliest season on record.

The southeast doesn't get enough rain? I'll disagree with you on that. Maybe the Southwest.

Check out this cool water in the west - pretty large area with BN