Stormchaserchuck1

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Early indication is a +NAO April, which is a bearish Atlantic season probability, with half of the analysis period still to go (Apr-May total is base period)

-17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative

^What was most impressive is that the largest anomalies occurred in the south vs the north. It could have been up to 1.5 magnitude higher if the core anomaly was over the Upper Midwest and Montana. It was also impressive how monthly records were set with more than 10 days to go in the month.

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

Well -10 isn't very strong. Those early March readings >+20 were strong. Will be interesting to see how the SOI responds to this Kelvin wave coming up.

Another period of significantly above

Some big +NAO's lately. This is based around the day DC hit 80 mid Winter.. it had never gone 80 Dec-Feb before that. +3.5 NAO Now we had a March +NAO that broke monthly records going back 75 years by +0.84! The end result? The most extremely anomalous ridge the US has ever seen. Big +NAO spikes are correlating with some warm extremes the last 3 years.

Luckily we can track that way ahead of time as Global SSTAs have a huge correlation with following season WPO

El Nino/+QBO December's: 6/6 months were warm in the Great Lakes/NE

It certainly seems like it, some places around here were in the 90s yesterday. We had mid to upper 80s in early March. Jan 26, 2024 DC hit 80 degrees. A lot of very impressive spikes in the past few years. Summer is a season where wavelengths relax so the general pattern (warming) is more prevalent. Not to mention 3 of the mostly anomalously warm months on record for CONUS happened this Winter

March monthly NAO crushed it.. +2.69 for the month. Number 2 highest March NAO on record was +1.85 It also beat the most negative month of March on record, 1962, -2.47.

Will this be a cooler Summer??

Yeah, I think it will stay around -0.5c lower for the duration of the event. The big cold season 500mb low has been trending less and less intense in the progression of Strong Nino's for the last 70 years. Will be interesting to see if this one stays weak like 23-24.