Stormchaserchuck1

Can't wait for 80/62 tomorrow on the last day of March.

That -WPO Fall loading pattern in SSTA really hit, too.

It's rare to get a strong west-based Nino but 91-92 certainly could have been colder..

Well I said if you multiplied anomalies by 1.5x what would it be. That would make Nino 1+2 0.0 to 0.0.

Agree to disagree I guess. I don't think more of the same changes the positions.

Nationally, 09-10 was actually drier than most Strong Nino's. I guess at 39N it's not that typical to get several big blizzards but NAO has never been more negative..

If Nino 1+2 is as cold as 09-10 I don't see how the pattern changes if it's 2.2 or 2.3

Well you know ENSO's main effect is due north and south of SSTA's, where the Hadley Cell and mid-latitude cell meet right?

If you consider it was the most -NAO season on record, and a Stronger Nino STJ, it's not that far fetched. Anyway my point is it's not different things happen if you turn up the heat, it's just bigger same.

I think this is where meteorological logic differs from analog based opinions.

A strong -QBO that season combined with Strong El Nino to give us several Stratosphere warmings, which corresponded with big -NAO events. A stronger El Nino may have actually given us stronger -NAO's (even though it was the most -NAO season on record since the 1800s, during a stronger El Nino). Nino 1+2 is almost cold there, that season. I don't think a max of those anomalies would have been bad at all. Actually, I think I would go higher on total in DC vs lower.

Ray, suppose the orientation doesn't change, you just multiply the anomalies by x1.5.. do you think 09-10 would have been a bad Winter?

Right.

By weaker you mean in Nino 1+2 and 3?

I guess.. Not too far from ideal though. Nino 1+2 is almost cold there v! impressive!