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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Jan 2024 had a pretty good -NAO with some cold coming underneath of northern latitude ridging. It was a pattern break from the -NAO bouts always hooking up with SE ridge 2018-2023.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even that was a -PNA Winter We haven't had classic Strong Nino since 2016
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    March-Apr 2026 had a combined NAO of +4.08
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, this last March was 2nd most positive NAO in all of records. We know that decadal phase is peaking around now as the last Winter month (DJFM) under -1.11 NAO was Dec 2010. 22 winter months >+1.11 during that time.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Eastern subsurface is roasting.. these are the highest daily anomalies on TAO/Triton of the event so far.. +6.5c
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 was "la nino" which I'm afraid we are on pace to repeat. Dec-Mar was very wet though, so line up a -NAO and it could be good just like other Strong Nino's. DJF NAO 23-24 was +1.08/month that Winter.. since March is not recently much of a Winter month
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    DJFM averaged out positive, +0.05/month. December had -0.97 but +EPO overwhelmed it. the negative H5 in the pacific extended north to +EPO that Winter, which dominated. It had short periods of blocking.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, a pure 82-83 or 97-98 type Nino wouldn't be bad if it happened like 6 times out of 10. you might still get above average temps, but line up a -NAO with the STJ... I contend that +NAO isn't a constant with east-based Nino's like history suggests, It's more random than it appears in limited analogs.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is the start of a very warm pattern for CONUS, to finish out May. I wonder if we're going to start doing what we were doing a few years ago where when the actual day is mild or ridgy, the long range models adjust for the same pattern in the extended. 80F here at 10am
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like the forecast has increased a few degrees to 95-96 for a high both Tues and Wed
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    75 analogs weighted, +2.0 next year El Nino is 2.0x, -0.5 next year ENSO is -0.5x, etc. 01-02 is probably about 2% of the composite. 96-97 is about 3% of the composite
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    June is pretty neutral just Nino 3.4 ENSO events that peak more later in the year have more of a pattern -NPH
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    The US pattern "pre-El Nino" has hit every single month since November. CPC 3-4 week forecasts are showing that hitting again. It doesn't mean there has been a N. pacific low though, which is usually the main staple mark of el nino.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with El Nino almost to a T
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Little bit of temp bust today, it was suppose to be low 70s and at 3pm it's only gotten to 65
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