Stormchaserchuck1
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In some months the PDO correlates higher with US Temperature than ENSO. In a few months it actually scores higher than the PNA! -
October 2024 PDO hit a 150-year low. Then in July 2025 it beat that, going lower. Now relative to ENSO it's probably just as impressive as Oct 2024 and July 2025. Don't think you can call a peak in the cold phase yet.
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Something to consider as models show nearly a 6000dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands in 4-5 days, here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
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Everyone falls into the analog trap. 23-24 didn't couple and it peaked at +2.0c Here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
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@40/70 Benchmark 23-24 maxed at -30dm in N. Pacific off the coast of CA (WPO area doesn't count) and the bigger story was probably +45dm south of the Aleutian islands See Larry's post
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Might still be too much +PNA -50dm max for DJFM I'll take the under on (higher anomaly). Looks good though!
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That 2023 is the anomaly is particularly interesting. Definitely a new pattern, these times.
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How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall?
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PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter.
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^IRI mean near +1.0c for AMJ is pretty interesting The average El Nino >+0.5 ONI for the first AMJ averaged out to be +0.18 the following AMJ (16 analogs). (This last AMJ was +0.9)
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It runs 4 times a day, 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. So when you post last 12 runs, you are only posting 3-days. Like I said I was somewhat following it the last 2 years and they had 1 run of -38F for the month of Dec in the NW, US both 2024 and 2025. Here's what happened lol (n
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Not to mention the record -PNA streak we had going 18-25 Feb-March until last year I mean Feb has been bad but look at March compared to the 91-20 average over the last 7 years Last March had a +2.92 NAO, the 2nd highest in all monthly records for all months of the year since 1948. At least we can say it's been because of bad oscillations, not everything neutral and some unknown reason.
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Here is the NAO streak we have going in February 2014 1.342015 1.322016 1.582017 1.002018 1.582019 0.292020 1.262021 0.142022 1.682023 0.922024 1.092025 1.602026 0.68 Will this year be a -1.5? It could be, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.
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CFS sucks as a model bro. Why would we have strong Winter -NAO when we haven't had it in 14 years, we have +QBO, and Descending Solar (favors +nao 1-5 years after Max)? I mean I could be wrong of course but I remember last 2 years the CFS was consistently showing like -20F monthly anomalies in the NW, US for the Winter and they ended up being solidly above average lol
