Stormchaserchuck1

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino's. The last Super Nino, 23-24, had 4 separate SSW's. This one is looking barely above average lol. +QBO may be a hindrance to SSWs this cold season but since El Nino's favor warmings, they kind of cancel each other out.

Wavelengths are fairly uniform. Composite of our storms >6-8" has a -120dm GOA low! That's so strong of a signal I have been saying no to many major snowstorm threats on models over the last few years when there is High pressure there instead lol. The mean composite for DJFM in Super Nino's is also -120dm.. so one encompasses 4 months, the other a few days but they are equal. The Super El Nino sample is not that large. If you only plot the Gulf of Alaska low anomaly in the Winter months our temps here are right around average, below in the Southeast, and above up near the Great Lakes. +EPO is really the pattern we don't want. But the few Super Nino analogs have run very different downstream than non-ENSO analogs of low pressure in the same exact spot in the N. Pacific! I'm saying that the difference shouldn't be so great and if the pattern happens again it may match the 100 all-ENSO analogs vs 5 or so Super Nino analogs.

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino.

Meh. 4-2 against teams that are 9-16 without playing them, and 2 unlikely wins and beating Ten barely. And the Browns probably aren't as good as 4-2. Hopefully they get it together going forward.. The offense with Lamar and Flowers has looked explosive at times.

Yeah I think the whole year is when you have the strongest event on record, and there are basically no negative H5 anomalies in the mean April to the present. Will be interesting to see if the pattern sets up for the 1st time as the N. Hemisphere Winter comes, it did happen for the S. Hemisphere Winter.

Nov-Mar +AAM 30-50N is a common pattern.

Yeah I mean I'm 39F at 10pm. It's felt cool from the 2nd half of Summer on. I think there will be -AO tendency this Winter. And the N. pacific is looking nothing like El Nino right now... still.. told ya lol ENSEMBLE LOOP Will be interesting to see the N. pacific pattern this Winter. Monster low pressure likely won't dominate

I'm not saying it can't snow, if the Pacific neutralizes we can do it with -AO, which I think we will have some -AO this Winter. But I'm pointing out a very likely flaw: long term modeling in the N. Pacific.

I disagree. Seasonal models and several weeks out models have show major error in the last few years. You can mark my words- the seasonal model mean is showing a -120dm N Pacific trough for DJFM. I think it will be significantly higher than that. Odds of them being too low is probably 95%. In 23-24 they were showing -90 to -120dm Winter mean and it ended up being +45dm. It's not narrow minded at all. Narrow minded is thinking it's going to be the same as all past El Nino's. History says Aleutian Low is an established El Nino pattern starting in October. That is not happening this year at all.

It's the best ENSO/PDO analog since the 1800s, and the global pattern has taken on its own momentum recently, so recent analogs have much greater weight than older ones. Long term models have shown major ENSO-default bias, in the last few years. Aleutian low typically becomes an established ENSO pattern in October. This is not it at all. ENSEMBLE LOOP You are referring to a 3-day period of weakly established N. pacific low. I think that's the 5th time I've heard you refer to that happening.

23-24 did the same thing basically every week Nov-Mar. Let's see if that Aleutian low actualizes.

Why would we need to stop focusing on it when it's one of the strongest correlated variables there is? It's completely dominating the Strongest El Nino on record in the N. Pacific so far. Philly, Balt and DC are near record lows for snowfall since 2016 when the core -PDO set in. Near the coast a few events really skews your total. It's like saying Pensacola Fl had a 10" snow event so therefore everything about a 10 year pattern is not relevant

It's a really strong decadal pattern. NOAA has run subsurface analysis of the N. Pacific and show very warm anomalies making it to -400m. That has never happened before. It will take a lot of time to get that out, at least a few years. History does show it's strongly cyclical over the course decades though so maybe in time it will be favorable again. I do think the next positive phase will be dominated by warm water in the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast North America, but it may take a few decades to get there, because it's a completely different pattern.

N. Pacific low is not necessarily bad. Our biggest snowstorms come from that composite. Give me +PDO/Super east-based Nino 50 times and I bet it will be good 30 times vs recent averages. The problem is -PDO is completely overwhelming the N. Pacific pattern right now. You see this on models for the next 15 days.

Negative PDO is the opposite of what they have. It's not a cooler north pacific. Where they have a Low pressure is really a High pressure.