Stormchaserchuck1

+ENSO tends to be more borderline, where -ENSO can flatten out the Atlantic ridge in -EPO.

We've had 13 straight February's with +NAO. 10/13 were >+1.00. Something has to give there. For comparison, our last Winter one month (DJFM) with NAO <-1.11 was Dec 2010.

Before last Winter, PHL's lowest 7-year snowfall on record was 13.3"/yr. 2018-2025 was 10.5"/yr, a pretty big difference. They were the epicenter of the snow drought but I think had a near average season last year.

Another severe wx pattern setting up, ahead of a strong trough

Maybe something related to a -AMO phase is trying to take hold as @snowman19 has mentioned several times. Hard to say if it's that or persistent +NAO/AO.

It worked last December.

I first noticed it in 2005 when -ENSO/-QBO December's were cold. Even cold-neutral ENSO fit it, as 1989 was an analog used for 2005. It seems to work in the reverse too, which is what you like to see for a solid correlation. Early season Stratosphere was of importance in 25-26, so maybe there is something to Dec.

^Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (RONI): 20-21: Moderate La Nina 21-22: Moderate La Nina 22-23: Moderate La Nina 23-24: Moderate El Nino 24-25: Moderate La Nina 25-26: Weak La Nina ENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak: 76-77: Moderate El Nino 77-78: Moderate El Nino 78-79: Neutral 79-80: Weak El Nino 80-81: Neutral 81-82: Neutral 82-83: Super El Nino Really interesting that we didn't see another La Nina for 7 years after 70-76. Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) 07-12 was 4/5 La Nina's, then didn't see another one for 4 years, and 3 years later 15-16 was Super El Nino. 86-95 was 4 El Nino's vs 1 La Nina, and was followed by 4/6 La Nina's. 95-01 was 4 La Nina's vs 1 El Nino, and flipped to 2 El Nino, 2 Neutral, 0 La Nina's for 4 years, and the 97-98 Super El Nino was in there. ENSO "evening out" is the theme. It would be interesting to see if pre-1948 followed the same pattern. *The 76-83 4 El Nino vs 0 La Nina was followed by only 2 El Nino's in the following 8 years in +PDO, and the Strongest La Nina on record (88-89) occurred in that period.

Deep -PDO continues (time sensitive)

Long range 18z GEFS @384 hr has us as one of the coldest spots in the N. Hemisphere, matching historical ENSO analogs

With inflation, I've figured out the following regarding Energy trading and the coming Winter: Natural Gas price >$5.00, more likely -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$5.00, more likely +NAO Winter Natural Gas price >$10.00, very high likelihood of -NAO Winter Natural Gas price <$2.50, very high likelihood of +NAO Winter Natural Gas is currently trading at $3.13. December '26 contract, $4.01. March '27 contract, $3.21. Top 10 Most positive Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$6.00 Top 12 Most negative Natural Gas Winters since 1996, relative to inflation trend: ^ Average price per Winter of those years: ~$2.60 In January 2026, the price of NG jumped from $3.12 to $7.40 as a really cold pattern set in. This was forecasted ahead of time by the CPC with no market reaction until it was days to weeks away. This cold period was associated with the 4th longest on record (since the early 1900s) that Baltimore had more than 4" of snow on the ground. The price then collapsed back to $3.40 in early February, and $2.80 by late February, and then March 2026 ended up being the warmest month relative to average on record for the CONUS, all time. There is a little lead in the NG price, but also sometimes weather patterns are a surprise.

For the last 27 years, Hadley Cell has responded more to relative ENSO index. RONI was about -0.2c vs ONI during this time (I know you say it's more like the last 10 years - RONI was -0.3/4 during that time).

The subsurface has stopped warming. It ebbs and flows though with Kelvin/Rossby waves. Here is what 1997 did: 2015 2023

Above average temps https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000

Good question. I was going to ask if anyone wants to discuss the snap-back tendency that the historical Strong Nino analog has given us, but I think a lot of attention is on this event because it may end up extreme. I think the Nina snap-back won't be as strong this go around, but it's early. Something to watch is if cold water starts to get going in the western and central subsurface, through the next few months and into the Fall and Winter. The big, long lasting Nina's all had major cold in the subsurface during the height of previous Strong Nino peak. Here is the historical dataset: Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 are your Super Nino's. Subsurface data since 1979 can be found here: Data Display and Delivery | Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array 20c Isotherm depth is probably the easiest variable to hone in on.