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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like the forecast has increased a few degrees to 95-96 for a high both Tues and Wed
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    75 analogs weighted, +2.0 next year El Nino is 2.0x, -0.5 next year ENSO is -0.5x, etc. 01-02 is probably about 2% of the composite. 96-97 is about 3% of the composite
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    June is pretty neutral just Nino 3.4 ENSO events that peak more later in the year have more of a pattern -NPH
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    The US pattern "pre-El Nino" has hit every single month since November. CPC 3-4 week forecasts are showing that hitting again. It doesn't mean there has been a N. pacific low though, which is usually the main staple mark of el nino.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with El Nino almost to a T
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Little bit of temp bust today, it was suppose to be low 70s and at 3pm it's only gotten to 65
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC 3-4 Week forecast going with an El Nino precip pattern.. should be interesting to see if it verifies, it's been running dry
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    June Nino 3.4
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily RONI is still below Weak Nino threshold of +0.5? Only 1991 had a May RONI +0.5 to become a Super Nino, all the others were averaging ~+0.8 by now.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    @CAPE I dont get it either Chargers RB Keaton Mitchell calls out Ravens for spurning him in free agency They aren't able to extend Lamar either. He knows that he's worth more than Jordan Love, Tua, Dak Prescott, etc.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO vs PNA VP
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z EPS looks close to mid 90s, Tues May 19.
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