Stormchaserchuck1

Do you know what the max OHC ever on record is (at all times of the year)?

This is what we get for a warm March.

I have found a site that allows you to trade future monthly US Temperature IBKR ForecastTrader May is currently going for 62F. Over or under? +NAO March, which you pointed out as a huge anomaly rolled forward to this May pattern When something is counter-intuitive like that (instead of warm begetting warm), I take note of it as something going on in the evolution of pattern

30-day SOI is below -10 for the first time since Feb 2024. It will need to average -10 for the next 2 days to hold that value for Apr - which is indicative of a healthy developing El Nino. Big switch from anomaly in March, where it was +7 and developing Nino's (>1.2 RONI peak) since 1950 had never been above +2

It looks like the 26c isotherm has made it down the thermocline. Doesn't get much warmer than that. I mean, there's not a perfect correlation of subsurface making it to the surface, but it is pretty high +time. I have also theorized that subsurface anomalies on the thermocline effect the N. pacific pattern, and we are seeing that on current models in May with more +PDO-type patterns, n. pacific 500mb low pressure It must be interesting for deep sea fish in the area to go from 65 degrees to 80 degrees (El Nino) to 55 degrees (La nina), all along the equator. Maybe some interesting evolutions there.

CPC has +8c anomalies in the central-subsurface, -150m, as of Apr 23.

Does anyone trade weather derivatives or is familiar with it? It's kind of frustrating that this May pattern was predictable far in advance -- March was 2nd most +NAO on all of records, going back to 1950. The +2 month, following May's had a strong below average temp signal: So here we are in May, and it's verifying Sometimes in weather forecasting there are these strong leads -- and I would like to be able to use knowledge to increase capital. PNW warmth was very predictable from pre-El Nino year May's, a composite that has been working out every month since November 2025:

Man, I don't want a cool May. It's also our most cloudy month of the year, so below average also means more clouds

2 days of strong -SOI, moving the 30-day average to the lowest since 23-24 El Nino 26 Apr 2026 1010.40 1011.90 -28.05 -9.61 3.89 25 Apr 2026 1010.94 1012.50 -28.48 -9.08 4.09

Surface pressures in the wrong positions?

45 and rain. Would be nice if it was 1.5 months earlier

Worse yet -- you don't read the thread. You are just copy and pasting what you said B4

+3c subsurface now stretches all the way from 160E to 90W

You keep saying the same thing over and over

An example of analogs working: March +NAO was top 2/900. When rolled forward to May, it is surprisingly cool, and this is the idea being adopted by CPC going forward Pre El Nino May: Nice combo of the two: warm in PNW. Cool elsewhere.