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Stormchaserchuck1

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About Stormchaserchuck1

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically warm Nino 1+2 in Oct doesn't look like that. Winter, yes, not october based on the last 73 years. I'd say the H5 model you are posting is more opposite than similar in the n. pacific
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with it
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a 2std -PDO pattern.. obviously continues to hold the crown as correlation leader in the N. Pacific.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks for posting that.. basically net neutral from 30-90N, same story.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take the under on a warm Christmas. There really aren't enough examples to be so confident in it. This is true for Super Nino's general.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    This October watch to see if US goes colder or not. El Nino's are historically cold in Oct. Pac pattern in Oct is pretty connected to the Winter.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    A few La Nina/-QBO's had crazy N. Pacific blocks in December.. >+200dm. That would be a wildcard for Dec, a monster N. Pacific low, if the PDO wasn't going against it so hard and recent patterns.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think you are paying too much attention to one part - ENSO. ENSO's propagation to the northern latitudes are 2nd and 3rd effects. Sometimes patterns set up in the mid latitudes. A greater El Nino response than 2015 is crazy imo. DJFM had nearly -120dm in the N. Pacific. We have not seen that like at all in 11 years, this record El Nino summmer included.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    498dm low in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    498dm in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days. Continuing the warm season theme from 2024 and 2025.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Must be one heck of an El Nino pattern in the Southern Hemisphere.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Look at all that water. Good sign for the Winter probably if it gets cold enough.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Should be interesting to see if we follow the last 3 El Nino's post-2016 PDO-change in October with a SE ridge and an area of real cold. 1948-2020 Oct Nino:
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    lmao You should have seen how far off it was Days 1-5
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