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About Stormchaserchuck1

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Fallston, MD
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@CAPE I dont get it either Chargers RB Keaton Mitchell calls out Ravens for spurning him in free agency They aren't able to extend Lamar either. He knows that he's worth more than Jordan Love, Tua, Dak Prescott, etc.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
ENSO vs PNA VP -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. -
0z EPS looks close to mid 90s, Tues May 19.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Nice 3 day run of -SOI 14 May 2026 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 -5.70 -0.07 13 May 2026 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 -5.50 0.32 12 May 2026 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78 -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower? -
Nice pattern coming up Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Monday Sunny, with a high near 90. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The 8 driest El Nino's with a RONI peak >+1.1 came out ... 2 El Nino - 3 Neutral - 3 La Nina the year after [27-28] ... the average RONI that next year is -0.15/yr. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We might need a +5c El Nino to get that North Pacific High area - low pressure strong and persistent anomaly like 82-83 and 97-98. Right now I think the North pacific 500mb pattern may match 23-24 going forward more than other Stronger Nino's -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
EPS Days 11-15 looks nothing like May El Nino in the Pacific We may be running back 23-24 as far as the Pacific pattern goes -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Per RONI Nino 3.4, no Super El Nino was ever this low in mid-May. Might be Super per ONI and Strong, RONI. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You are really latching onto the far east part of this 2nd Kelvin wave. When the next one moves across, warm subsurface anomalies will recenter - overall they are further west in the mean than 1997. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don't think this one is going to be as east as 1997. That one hugged South America The forcing with this one may actually be quite a bit more west Nino 4 is much different now than in 1997 -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not really seeing much of a N. Pacific low or negative anomaly in the NPH area (-NOI) thus far. -
384hr on the mean has a respectable ridge
