Stormchaserchuck1
-
Posts
5,518 -
Joined
-
Last visited
2 Followers
About Stormchaserchuck1
Recent Profile Visitors
33,752 profile views
-
^It must have an error with surface based warmth then.
-
Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol -
CANSIPS has a pretty strong cold bias.. check out what it had for August at 0.0 month lead vs what actually happened. July 25 it did the same thing, -4 areas verifying at +2 and stuff like that.
-
5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI): 9 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +1 year: 5 La Nina's 0 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +2 year: 4 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino
-
-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE.
-
Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related.
-
Yeah 20 years of global warming after that. We realistically need a -EPO or -NAO. A lot of people don't realize, but we have yet to see our 1st N. Pacific trough since the El Nino developed! A lot of these Super Nino analogs have something like -150dm for DJFM, lack of awareness about the current pattern imo
-
Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28.
-
Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
-
CANSIPS had a cool August for places that ended up +4F at a 0.0 month lead. In the south it had near 0F forecast, and it was +4-6f. Terrible forecast when the first 15 days of the month are already short range modeled.
-
Nov and Dec are the warmest months. Matches the ENSO analog set. Kind of interesting that 01-02 which was the strongest +EPO on record never got above 82F in Fairbanks all earlier that year. But that's just 1 example.
-
Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season
-
NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter
-
lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!
