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Stormchaserchuck1

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Finally! Let's see if it holds for more than a couple of days.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I think it was you that made the good point that the S. Hemisphere Winter has high correlation, and a trough is usually dominant in El Nino's. We haven't seen that so far this year. An El Nino this strong should still show something vs recent climo imo.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hadley Cell contraction in July 1972, 1982, 1997. Not so much in 2015, 2023. We are still following closer analogs most closely
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe a little bit of an extreme bias If we continue to see no Hadley Cell contraction that would really be something!
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    That N. Pacific Low is in the perfect position for our historical analog snowstorms. And -NAO, just put a 50/50 low underneath like mitchnick said it would look really favorable. Unfortunately, seasonal models have a huge ENSO bias. We have not seen a North Pacific low for more than a few days since January, July will be the 6th month in a row of -PNA. Just not getting that pattern at all right now. In 2023 it was never occurring too, and seasonal models kept outputting the same default ENSO, which didn't verify.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    It would be nice to get a N. Pacific trough at all, for all the models showing this for the Winter
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think a Winter -EPO El Nino is impossible. Further north it's more random than the mid-latitudes and the historical analog composite is probably biased to +epo (same with +ao and +nao of super Nino's). The warmth is definitely winning the battles in 2026 so far, however.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will it show the lowest DM ever recorded in US?
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino who? ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023)
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Northern Hemisphere pattern continues to disconnect from ENSO
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    August will be a good test
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    What's their all time high record low (anyone know?) Imagine if it was July 27!
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think we've seen a North Pacific low anomaly for more than a couple days since the event began.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. June-July for warm Nino 1+2:
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think it's impossible to have -EPO during El Nino's. Historical analogs are probably too +EPO (further north in latitude is more of a "random point" than like the PNA and NPH). If you look at the reverse of 1895-1948 La Nina's, it's very -EPO/WPO.
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