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Stormchaserchuck1

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    JJA ONI record since 1950 is +1.6c (centered around July 15) JAS ONI record since 1950 is +1.9c (centered around Aug 15) We are currently nearing +2.1c.. strongest on record for this date.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Biggest one day jump possibly of the event so far. It's like the stock market when it goes down in a strong bull market.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    You would expect it, but the decadal -PDO is near a peak right now.. it's holding surprisingly strong. Nino 3.4 is +2.1c right now and the previous ONI record for JJA is +1.6c, and JAS +1.9c. So this is the Strongest El Nino on record at the moment.. yet we are starting off Aug with the 7th month of -PNA values in a row. That's what's keeping the PDO so low. In the cold season the North Pacific High starts reacting to ENSO more, so there is a good chance it will start trending more positive then, say like October, but the pattern right now otherwise is really strong in the N. Pacific. I think it's tied to warm season +AO, and this year is another -H5 over the Arctic.. which we've had so much of since 2017. Amazing that the Arctic ice melt record from 2012 has now held for 14 consecutive years in exponential global warming.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Expand it to all PDO analogs.. +PDO is perferred Although we had record low -PDO in the Summer/Fall the last 2 years, and ended up having a cold Winter both times.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I wish. We're in a nasty 7-year trend in March
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've just been looking at 500mb daily maps and we've had 4 good low peaks in the arctic this Summer. I think the actual AO index is not as positive as the -H5. PNA is recovering finally after a negative start to August. Let's see if it continues!
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA may seem out of context in an El Nino thread, but I'm just describing what's happening now - this is the highest El Nino on record for the date, and right now it's not acting like previous Nino's. Will that change for the Winter? perhaps, but I wouldn't expect a monster -150dm N. pacific low in the DJFM mean.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Wow! Keep in mind July 2025 currently holds the all time monthly PDO record in either state, with -4.2. Oct 2024 was the all time monthly record before that, since the mid 1800s, at -3.8. I know they edited the monthly marks so I want to double check but the site is currently down. Aug being possibly the 7th month in a row with -PNA is a big reason why it's dropping so much. Will it start effecting things different as we move toward the cold season? Perhaps, but -PDO decadal is almost as much of an anomaly as El Nino currently is. Having the two together like this is probably coming up on a 6std happening! Exciting!
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm surprised the N. Hemisphere pattern isn't going more +AAM like, which is a GOA low (usually around -100dm even in the warm season with +4 GLAAM), and a High south of Greenland, also approaching +100dm.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cool. I like those moving X-Y plots. There aren't enough Super Nino analogs. The database is too small, so common sense has to be used as to what it means in the northern latitudes. For example, many previous Super Nino's had a cold season +EPO and +AO/somewhat +NAO, which has less to do with ENSO. Super Nino effects the North Pacific High, primarily.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another big arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    CANSIPS has the El Nino way too far west. Further north in the EPO domain has less to do with ENSO though, and lot of the colder temps on model are from ridging 60-90N on the Pacific side. A further east El Nino event would correlate more with trough in GOA, vs the spread out +PNA that it's showing with Nino 3.4 based El Nino. Even though it's not as cold, our biggest storms happen with GOA trough. Let's see it develop at all first though, the first half of Aug is projected to be the 7th consecutive -PNA month.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    The fact that the PDO has dropped -2 during the time of Nino 3.4 warming +2.4 has to be some kind of record too, for both sides (Nina+PDO too). It might be a 5-6std event.
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