Stormchaserchuck1
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CANSIPS had a cool August for places that ended up +4F at a 0.0 month lead. In the south it had near 0F forecast, and it was +4-6f. Terrible forecast when the first 15 days of the month are already short range modeled.
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Nov and Dec are the warmest months. Matches the ENSO analog set. Kind of interesting that 01-02 which was the strongest +EPO on record never got above 82F in Fairbanks all earlier that year. But that's just 1 example. -
Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season
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NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter
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lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!
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Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. These models were so bad in 23-24.
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September 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Rockies ridge has been the pattern for a while.. +6F anomalies for almost a year is impressive! -
September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.1 0.7 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.8 0.4
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I've been getting warmer indicators on the Winter than a month ago. Will have to find a site that does SSTA for the whole May-Sept period
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The problem with that is, whatever is happening at the time is correlated to the linear rise in temperature. I would think there would just be more global high pressure, a more stable system - bigger swings does not jive with a total warming climate. 09-10 was the lowest NAO since the mid 1800s. I thought global warming would really inflate high pressure at the poles - but the opposite has happened over the last 11 years. Now it's swings or whatever that is the product of global warming. Something else I think is causing the mid latitude temps to rise relative to the poles.
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It just comes across like you think things like NAO, PNA, etc are altered from new Super El Nino's happening. We are probably rate of global warming x 2013-14 likely to see a Winter that cold again. Indices have not been on track since 2016 and that is a significant part of the NE warming trend. The 1970s were a big dip down in the late 1800s - 1960s global warming. No one is saying warming isn't happening but it's becoming too comfortable and too specific.
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"Points", "next level", "new threshold".. they are fictions of the mind. The mind likes structure. It also communicates more confidently when referring to it. There is no finite system that is baking out things when new El Nino's are hit. It's smooth - the global temperature rise is linear to localized warmings over a large enough sample.
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^You like to take small samples and apply absolutes to them. Every thing that happens isn't because global warming is happening. I think history shows us that when we have something like 5/6 consecutive La Nina's before this year, and >50% of La Nina's since 1998, it in every case reverses hard thereafter. We all predicted this 2 years ago. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty good warm ENSO correlation as well. What's the global temperature rise, +0.3-4c/yr for ENSO? That's probably the rate of warming. We've had mostly La Nina's since 1998. A few years ago we were hearing about how global warming was causing more La Nina's
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Looks like we start warming up around the 1st of Sept. The 1st half of the month could have a pretty big +anomaly.
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Partial Lunar Eclipse visible now
