Stormchaserchuck1

A lot of the warmth in 23-24 Winter was from +WPO. A little harder to connect that to ENSO. Beyond that, are you saying that El Nino has an anomaly relative to global warming, or it's just global warming points - everything is warming everywhere? Does the same work in reverse for La Nina's?

Gawx has pointed out that March 2026 will likely be the most +NAO month of March since 1950. Surprisingly, rolled forward to April and May is not a warm composite April May March to May

Big time warm water is getting going in the western-subsurface. Could help to push the Nino a little further west if it stays under Nino 3.4 and surfaces Nino 4 is warming

Yes, correct. Neutral/-QBO would be higher than nina/-qbo and Neutral/+QBO would be lower than nino/+qbo.

The last 4 years, Stratosphere has been a huge hit with favored QBO state Nov-Feb. +QBO -QBO It doesn't automatically translate to AO state, although this Nov's SSW did precede more -AO conditions early to mid Winter. The last 2 March Stratosphere warmings have not lead to -NAO conditions +time. Typically Stratosphere warmings have a lag, and coolings correlate at 0-day

0z EPS continues to be very warm April 1-8

^I saw someone post this a few days ago.. one of the coldest March's on record for Fairbanks, AK Alaska has been having one of its coldest Winters on record without actually much negative 500mb anomaly

US March 2026 temperature ranking vs historical should be interesting

91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92.

23-24 didn't have super negative anomalies in the Pacific like other Strong Nino's, but ENSO mainly effects the North Pacific High 23-24 cold season did have a NPH negative anomaly, which is El Nino. I see why RONI was +1.5, as the total N. Pacific pattern wasn't very influenced by ENSO seemingly:

Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based.

Most of the time the NAO doesn't correlate high on the west coast. March is an exception.

Yes.. +0.5 is really strong correlation

It's hitting Flagstaff the hardest. Their previous highest temp ever recorded in March was 73. They are in the 80s for it looks like 4 days. No UHI cause for this SW warm up.

Yeah not really any basis for the way the last 4-5 months have gone out there. One of the bigger record breaks on record.