Stormchaserchuck1

lmao You should have seen how far off it was Days 1-5

Here bluewave posted this in another thread

I think the US record is 6038dm or something like that.. imagine challenging it in mid-September, and not even over the most favorable zone SW, US

Are we really getting such a large 500mb ridge? Surface temps aren't as impressive as H5. That's actually not too far away from the all time US record. I wonder if we are shattering mid-Sept US record?

Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold? I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao.

Nice run of -SOI 14 Sep 2026 1012.86 1014.90 -25.91 -17.50 -20.30 13 Sep 2026 1013.56 1015.55 -25.61 -17.44 -20.04 12 Sep 2026 1012.91 1015.60 -29.77 -17.32 -19.89 11 Sep 2026 1012.86 1015.40 -28.88 -16.53 -19.86 10 Sep 2026 1012.90 1013.90 -19.73 -15.51 -19.92 9 Sep 2026 1013.04 1013.40 -15.92 -14.62 -20.08 8 Sep 2026 1012.32 1014.50 -26.74 -14.02 -20.17 7 Sep 2026 1013.24 1015.10 -24.84 -13.46 -20.04 6 Sep 2026 1014.43 1015.70 -21.33 -13.18 -19.91

^Looks like it predicted the N. Pacific ridge too, which is rare in El Nino.

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO.

Who's the number 1 WR without Zay and Lane, Bateman? He had about 10 catches last year. We also don't have Likely anymore who had a monster game and is a reason the Giants beat DAL

Well the high ACE = neg NAO hasn't worked well lately, we've had a lot of high ace/la nina seasons. Our last -NAO Winter was 10-11.

We've been hearing for so many years about how high ACE correlates to Winter -NAO. Not one mention of the opposite this year? It probably hasn't even crossed a lot of people minds. Winter +NAO tendency?

Record low ACE to date

That's a monster +AO pattern lol Since the Solar Max peak in 2024, the warm seasons 2024, 2025 and 2026 have been very +ao. I think it's more of a decadal state, and just minimizes the potential for 09-10 type -NAO or 15-16 type +PNA

A seasonal model is never going to predict more than like a +3F month. That's because their accuracy is low and they have a large range of error. East-based Nino/-PDO is about as bad as it gets for long range predictors of Winter CONUS warmth. Hopefully the AO help this year. Baltimore/DC average high never really goes below 40 so we do need some below average temps.

the can'tsips