Stormchaserchuck1
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It looks like the streak of -SOI days has ended 11 Aug 2026 1016.05 1013.30 6.86 -21.05 -22.10 10 Aug 2026 1014.90 1012.95 2.00 -22.57 -22.32 I've noticed over the years that when an ENSO variable wanes, other parts of its correlation pick up (more +PNA pattern for the next 13 days).. weird. -
Yeah, this Fall/Winter will be interesting to see if NPH trough develops. It hasn't really happened since 15-16. +SOI correlation was a match the last 2 Summers as well.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Year 2 has lower correlation numbers, but is still generally mild -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
It's always hard to break record, but Summer 2027 has the potential to be warm, being post-El Nino (one that will break the post-1948 record by 15-20%). This has nothing do with global warming:
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
During the Strongest El Nino on record for July, too. The correlation isn't nearly as strong in the Summer, but generally La Nina's are the warmer Summer pattern, historically. -
I think even if it were a Weak El Nino the model would show N. Pacific trough for the Winter. Not saying we aren't going to get it, just noticed that 100% of the time it predicts ENSO climo.
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I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far.
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I used to be like that when I was younger. He posts a lot of good stuff, shouldn't take what other people say to heart like that. I personally enjoy reading his stuff, I don't have a Twitter account so it links me to all the ENSO stuff.
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CPC disregarding it completely. The CANSIPS has looked like the 2 years in a row, and the last 2 Winters did verify like that. I remember in July last year though it had a 0.0 month lead in the Midwest of -4 to -6 for the month and it ended up being like +2 to +4 lol.
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I think the model is overestimating the NAO: We aren't going to get extreme cold in the east with the N. Pacific looking like that. As bluewave would say, that's 1960s-esq stuff.
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Check out this NAO streak in February 2014 1.342015 1.322016 1.582017 1.002018 1.582019 0.292020 1.262021 0.142022 1.682023 0.922024 1.092025 1.602026 0.68
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Good lightning storm, for a change. 1-2 close strikes to my house. Most storms this year have been just rain. Have to love Jul-Aug.
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I don't think I've ever gone with above average snowfall since returning to the boards in 2017. I think 18-19 was showing some promise in the Fall but that winter was a disaster. I think whether we get above or below will depend on the AO/NAO this Winter. As long as signs are pointing to them being negative, you have to love the El Nino precip pattern. Unfortunately we've had something like 14 +NAO Winters in a row. The last 2 Winters have been -AO, so there has been some variation in that index. Also, global cold patterns are reversing hard right now. It snowed in Montana late June then a few weeks later Billings, MT hit an all-time high of 111 (beating previous record of 108). The last two DJF's were cold then March '26 was warmest everby a large margin. Same in March '25. A few days ago we had 5030dm in the arctic, now in a few days the same area makes it to 5700dm! It's "evening out" in a lot of cases. It may be really hard to below temps on a longer term mean, but there could be shorter periods of -AO with snow!
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Surprisingly weak correlations for Winter 27-28, if anyone is wondering. The El Nino will be highest on record by 15-20% so it's a good data point. I'm actually surprised that it doesn't reverse to a la nina pattern, based on history.
