Stormchaserchuck1

3 days of <-30 SOI in a row 18 Sep 2026 1010.91 1014.40 -34.52 -18.69 -21.31 17 Sep 2026 1011.10 1014.00 -31.02 -18.48 -21.12 16 Sep 2026 1011.63 1015.00 -33.81 -18.19 -20.84 September is going to finish pretty strongly -SOI, making May-Sept one of the more -SOI periods on record. Here is what follows the following year (+16 months): [map default is +correlation, so for -SOI it's opposite]

Let's hope the SE Canada ridge doesn't build in October like it did in 2023 CPC's October forecast released today

Crazy that 23-24 Winter had an overall -AO DJFM in the mean, with 3/4 months negative. Was the warmest Winter on record for US Actually since 22-23 every Winter Dec-Mar in the mean has been -ao, albeit slightly.

Bel Air 15 minutes away had 3". A little bit of elevation made a big difference! That was the storm where the sky lit up 20+ times with green lightning flashes.

I had a surprise 7" snow early last December.

lmao I like the 4980dm that's happening over the Arctic right now. There will be -AO periods this Winter.

Historically warm Nino 1+2 in Oct doesn't look like that. Winter, yes, not october based on the last 73 years. I'd say the H5 model you are posting is more opposite than similar in the n. pacific

CPC going with it

That's a 2std -PDO pattern.. obviously continues to hold the crown as correlation leader in the N. Pacific.

Thanks for posting that.. basically net neutral from 30-90N, same story.

I'll take the under on a warm Christmas. There really aren't enough examples to be so confident in it. This is true for Super Nino's general.

This October watch to see if US goes colder or not. El Nino's are historically cold in Oct. Pac pattern in Oct is pretty connected to the Winter.

A few La Nina/-QBO's had crazy N. Pacific blocks in December.. >+200dm. That would be a wildcard for Dec, a monster N. Pacific low, if the PDO wasn't going against it so hard and recent patterns.

I think you are paying too much attention to one part - ENSO. ENSO's propagation to the northern latitudes are 2nd and 3rd effects. Sometimes patterns set up in the mid latitudes. A greater El Nino response than 2015 is crazy imo. DJFM had nearly -120dm in the N. Pacific. We have not seen that like at all in 11 years, this record El Nino summmer included.

498dm low in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days.