Stormchaserchuck1

-EPO is the coldest pattern Its precip is "ok". When there is a trough in the PNA region or Gulf of Alaska there is a big negative sea level pressure anomaly on the east coast from the Gulf of Mexico to Maine. But not epo, -EPO is more High pressure dominant Sometimes you will pop a low on the coast though

Respectable little storm

It snowed harder in this one than the storm earlier in December. Probably 1"+/hr rates for 10 minutes

Snow squall warning for me!

Pour more coffee!

0z EPS tries to develop -EPO mid-month, which would quickly cool down the NE, while other models have more -WPO/-AO.. ridge near Russia. Interesting difference

I'll probably have to stay up until 5am to get in on this squall

Here it comes

Was never really a favorable period We were lucky to get so cold in Dec with the pattern, as the NAO had its most negative Winter month out of the last 60 Winter months (since Dec 2010)! -WPO contributed to it, too.

Happy New Years from the 0z GFS

Thanks for doing it Roger. DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -1.2 -1.7 -2.5 +1.0 +2.7 +1.5 +3.5 +0.7

Hooray! Number 2! I used Apr-May SLP in the North Atlantic, it's a strong indicator.

Wow, 3 of the 4 warmest December's were in the last 4 years. That kind of thing exceeds climate change, it means that we have a strong pattern in place that is several years ongoing..

Hey Larry, I agree it's probably not factored in. I was looking at the 18z GFS ensemble and that is really not much big below average temps in the first 5 days of the month. Then we really amp the SE ridge, so some places around DC could be +3 to +5 by mid month. By the 15th, the pattern is changing but it's still above average in the northeast. That means we need a really cold 2nd half of the month for the CPC's forecast to verify. I'm tempted to pull the trigger on a long NG contract Future. The reason why it would be March and not Feb is volume starts dwindling on the Feb contract around Jan 24th, and the run may go through the end of the month. I've seen enough CPC monthly stuff to know that they do have pretty high accuracy.