-
Posts
5,183 -
Joined
-
Last visited
About Stormchaserchuck1

Profile Information
-
Location:
Fallston, MD
Recent Profile Visitors
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I wonder if Summer ridging at 90N is something that reverses long term, "evens out", like ENSO seems to do? We have been in a long, consistent cold period since 2016. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
PDO is glaring there, look at this a -0.6 correlation in Louisiana! That's out of 1.0. I would agree, near normal, El Nino east or west based is usually colder than average there -
Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Check out how Nino 1+2 being warm (+2.8c) is hitting +correlation in the Rockies in the medium range.. means you might have to give warm Nino 1+2 analogs credence going forward The Rockies in the Summer recently have almost never seen that kind of cold. That's vs the 81-10 average- 195 replies
-
- we got burned
- rugpull central
- (and 1 more)
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Warm Nino 1+2 pattern hitting, despite strong decadal seasonal trend for warmth out there ^That's vs the 81-10 average. It's a really impressive cold shot being modeled -
Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Pretty above average temps Jun 30 - July 6 on 12z EPS- 195 replies
-
- we got burned
- rugpull central
- (and 1 more)
-
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'm a believer in utilizing reverse conditions. The dataset is limited, so historically La Nina's look different than the reverse of El Nino's (they both aren't warm in the east when strong). Some of that is because El Nino's tend to be more east-based, but there is still discrepancy in the reversals. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I would say 72-73 and 23-24, although we risk the AO going more negative than those analogs. 15-16 would probably be my number 3 -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
How did the JMA initialize the current Nino (I know it has a west or central-based configuration in the Winter)? -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Ever had a La Nina this east based? -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions vs each other. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. It's like 50% or more Nino 1+2 based.
