Stormchaserchuck1
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How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? -
PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter.
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^IRI mean near +1.0c for AMJ is pretty interesting The average El Nino >+0.5 ONI for the first AMJ averaged out to be +0.18 the following AMJ (16 analogs). (This last AMJ was +0.9)
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It runs 4 times a day, 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. So when you post last 12 runs, you are only posting 3-days. Like I said I was somewhat following it the last 2 years and they had 1 run of -38F for the month of Dec in the NW, US both 2024 and 2025. Here's what happened lol (n
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Not to mention the record -PNA streak we had going 18-25 Feb-March until last year I mean Feb has been bad but look at March compared to the 91-20 average over the last 7 years Last March had a +2.92 NAO, the 2nd highest in all monthly records for all months of the year since 1948. At least we can say it's been because of bad oscillations, not everything neutral and some unknown reason.
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Here is the NAO streak we have going in February 2014 1.342015 1.322016 1.582017 1.002018 1.582019 0.292020 1.262021 0.142022 1.682023 0.922024 1.092025 1.602026 0.68 Will this year be a -1.5? It could be, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.
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CFS sucks as a model bro. Why would we have strong Winter -NAO when we haven't had it in 14 years, we have +QBO, and Descending Solar (favors +nao 1-5 years after Max)? I mean I could be wrong of course but I remember last 2 years the CFS was consistently showing like -20F monthly anomalies in the NW, US for the Winter and they ended up being solidly above average lol
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October NAO is interestingly inverse to the Winter (DJFM)! It's the only month of the year that has an opposite correlation. October is also the highest month of PDO correlation to US pattern. The Pacific 500mb in October is a big indicator to see which is winning the battle - El Nino vs -PDO! Of course we've had 6 straight months of -PNA, and Aug is looking to come in around 0.0. I mean, if that continues it will be interesting to see what actually happens in the Winter (basic Nino pattern is not a given).
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3rd straight day of <-30 SOI 22 Aug 2026 1013.39 1016.75 -30.23 -19.36 -22.39 21 Aug 2026 1013.48 1017.25 -32.71 -18.78 -22.41 20 Aug 2026 1013.20 1017.40 -35.32 -17.97 -22.25
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I don't think -PNA is an El Nino pattern. You are getting randomness because September is the weakest month of the year for ENSO correlation across the Pacific-North America region
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My area has been extremely wet. I think in the eastern 40% of US it has matched the trend Everyone is saying it's because of El Nino, I think it's a 10-year thing happening. The Fall will be a better indicator of how wet the Nino STJ is.
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It certainly feels like Fall the past 2 days. 60s in the evening both times. It seems like since 2024 every Summer has been hot in the beginning then cool at the end. Another -400dm low over the Arctic today. Again, every May-Sept has had that pattern 60-90N: 2024, 2025, 2026. July-Aug the wettest months of the year again, matching the 2017-2025 pattern.
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I think a lot of attention is paid to the Pacific when ENSO may actually effect N. America directly If you look at the cold season correlation with Nino 1+2 there is actually a slightly higher max in N. America, north of the Great Lakes, than the NPH area in the N. Pacific It will be interesting to see what happens this Winter in this regard as the PDO/overall 500mb state of the Pacific is so different from El Nino atm.
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You know as well as I do that their forecasts underperform. I think they use mostly models, and you can actually utilize other methods (PDO, AMO, Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs, Summer arctic 500mb), to do better. As least that's how it's verified in the last 15 years. Keep in mind though that they did do really well in 15-16 and 23-24. Two of their best forecasts. but yeah, the possible fluctuation is pretty big. 18-19 was stock ENSO for a weaker Nino and it verified opposite. They had near average last Winter in the Rockies and some places were +10F for DJFM.
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Another arctic low at -400dm today. <5100dm! Since the Solar Max peak we have been getting this a lot May-Sept (24-26). A lot of the "patterns" seem consistent actually - warm start to Summer locally then near average or cooler ending. July-Aug being wettest months locally.
