Stormchaserchuck1
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Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.
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Seasonal models and even CPC long range forecasts gravitate towards average. And it doesn't really account for global warming. If the models has you in like +1.5f, expect their being right as really being +4
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A big issue I see with the CFS is, with the Winter 500mb pattern being modeled over the N. Pacific, you aren't going to get that strong of an East Coast trough. Since 2016 the Pacific has held much more weight than the NAO. Then again as I already mentioned in this thread, in 2024 and 2025 I saw runs of the CFS having -38F anomalies in the NW, US for the whole month of December! Can you believe they ended up well above average?
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Wierd.. why would the NAO be negative all of a sudden? It hasn't been negative in 14 years, and this is the ripe +year time after Solar Max and strong +QBO.. not saying it's impossible but I think they are displacing the El Nino N. American ridge.
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February has by far been the worst if you narrow it down to since 2018. For some reason there has been incredible -PNA tendency in Feb and March for the last 9 years. Not to mention 13 straight +NAO Feb's, with 10/13 being >1.00! Take the indexes out and I agree December has been the GW month
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I wish lol. You have to wonder why these models are so bad
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TAO/Triton trying to pop +11c in the subsurface. Maybe in the next few days... To the best of my knowledge, we've never had a +11c subsurface reading before. That's nearly +20F, and it's still progressing warmer. -
6 more days of sub-4980dm in the Arctic circle coming. Looks like it maxes out in 2 days at 489dm. Medium and long range models have been underestimating the arctic circle PV all Summer.
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Between the -PDO, +PMM, and El Nino it certainly is a torch out there! Most people will see that and just say "global warming". We know that a lot of that stuff is cyclical although I'm wondering if +PDO ever comes back in my lifetime (maybe for 2-3 years at some point like '13-16).
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I'm just going to say, with most of the +AAM coming from the equator this is not as much of an anomaly as it would seem, it being the strongest El Nino on record. An equilateral AAM index would probably be +8.
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The models are Oct 4th. The difference between the two times (9-23/30 and 10/4) is actually the most drastic difference of the whole year lol. Oct 1 ENSO correlation goes up like 2x.
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PDO > ENSO somehow. I would have never guessed it.
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CPC's PNA index is a little weird, DJFM 23-24 was 4/4 +PNA months, totaling +2 and the overal H5 for it was a +45dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands... kind of a big difference. In Jan 2025 there was a +200dm ridge and they were saying it was +PNA.
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Closer to neutral doesn't mean -PNA but there is a tendency in those two months.
