Stormchaserchuck1

Looks like that's a +270dm anomaly on the mean, so given average model error from that range, we have a 50% chance of having +140dm> anomaly.. the hope is that it moves a little north, instead of staying over the n. pacific water.

Negative PNA is not what you want to see in January. In January it has a higher SE ridge correlation than other Winter months. Other guidance had been showing -EPO/-WPO, more of an arctic ridge than N. pacific ridge. Hopefully it trends back.

Right back to -PNA. Year of the La Nina.

0z EPS is much cooler than the GEFS in the extended

It was actually an impressive -WPO/-PNA hybrid December.. +300dm anomaly for the month is rare. -PNA doesn't go real warm in the Northeast in December And -WPO is cold in December (default is positive, so it's opposite) The combination of those two gave us almost perfectly the anomaly composition for the month. Although it is interesting that the Southwest and Lower Midwest were so warm.. even though the pattern supports a ridge there, it did go much more extreme than the usual correlation. 2021 also had a +300dm N. pacific ridge, although it was more RNA-oriented

A little rant on the PDO In Fall 2024, the PDO hit its lowest monthly reading since the mid 1800s. That easily carried a <-1 state through last Winter. This July, it crushed last Fall's record, hitting -4.18, ensuring another <-1 PDO Winter, regardless of what unfolds in the H5 pattern. The PNA so far this Winter since Dec 1st, has been negative every single day. CPC has that continuing through the 1st week of January, and what was previously looking like a bounce positive mid-month is not looking so sure with todays long range models holding a N. Pacific ridge. +PNA is our best coastal low pattern. From the gulf of mexico, to maine, Miller A's and Miller B's, +PNA is the way to bomb low pressures on the east coast. When the PNA is negative, that's a coastal high pressure pattern. This year, going into December, we had 21 of the last 29 months being +PNA! Since the 23-24 El Nino turned to negative-ENSO we still had 17 of 25 months +PNA. It was looking like we could possibly see a +PNA Winter! 2018-2024 had the most -PNA February and March, for a 7 year period, by 140%! On all records, the highest 7-consecutive year anomaly was -NAO in January 1960's at +95dm.. then we hit +140dm for a 7-year period Feb-March -PNA 2018-2024. The PDO is in a decadal negative state, and it's really peaking right now. I was hoping after the 23-24 El Nino we would start moving away from that, but it looks like there is still long ways to go..

This has to be the most boring Winter I've experienced model tracking-wise. The southern stream is dead and we are in an "in between" pattern all the time. At least when it's warm that's exciting because it's one side of a wave. This is just endless nothingness. I guess I should be thankful for the one storm in early Dec.

I'm kind of concerned about the end of the 18z GEFS in what is suppose to be our colder time.. the N. Pacific High pressure extends south and west, giving us more -PNA. The Atlantic has a south-based +NAO. Thankfully it has time to change, as other forecasting agencies and long range products are showing more of a 500mb pattern favorable for cold.

Yeah, pretty classic La Nina December in the orientation of the anomalies. Feb is the highest correlated ENSO month, it will be interesting to see if we have more -PNA conditions if warm water continues to infiltrate the ENSO subsurface.. right now the subsurface general is ENSO Neutral.

That's kind of what I'm intuitively thinking. There is a Kelvin wave moving warm water to the central-ENSO-subsurface in the next few weeks, I have found that it does correlate with more +PNA conditions.

-EPO is the coldest pattern Its precip is "ok". When there is a trough in the PNA region or Gulf of Alaska there is a big negative sea level pressure anomaly on the east coast from the Gulf of Mexico to Maine. But not epo, -EPO is more High pressure dominant Sometimes you will pop a low on the coast though

Respectable little storm

It snowed harder in this one than the storm earlier in December. Probably 1"+/hr rates for 10 minutes

Snow squall warning for me!