Stormchaserchuck1

We're not going to hit La Nina on the ONI. It's going to officially be "ENSO Neutral" for the 2nd straight year.

I'd put higher probability on it. Or the time afterward, Jan 20-30 period. It's not much of a risk that the N. Pacific ridge currently extending into Alaska and the Arctic circle on models will trend into -PNA, donsoutherland has done research that 45-day -PNA periods in the winter, like the one we just had flip to +PNA 80% of the time afterwards. Also, there is a kelvin wave starting to move warm water across the ENSO-subsurface, and I have found that correlates to more +pna conditions as it happens. Greater probability is that the N. pacific ridge ends up north with a low even undercutting it, vs the opposite, imo.

Please don't hire someone who doesn't go for it on 4th and 1

0z GFS ensembles starting getting cold around Jan 18th. Anything before that probably isn't going to do it.

Not really a torch in the mean 2 months after a -NAO December weights it a little cooler NAO has been -0.65 or lower 4 straight months

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I don't know, this looks kind of ugly to me in the mean. I think the only way those surface temps will verify is if we are right after a cold front, unless a few individual members are weighting the mean. Maybe those few outlier members will win and the Pacific ridge will trend more Polar? GEFS has more -WPO at 384hr so that's a little better. The ENSO subsurface is starting to warm with a kelvin wave, and I did research showing that, that actually correlates to more +PNA when the subsurface at -200m hits 180W. That should happen in the next few weeks.. Just using that favors less -pna and more +pna going into the extended, but that's just one method.

This doesn't look bad The jet stream is dry though. Still watching the late January period, because CPC has below average in the Northeast for January, and we are likely to be pretty solidly above by the 16th. 3-4 week on the CPC is also colder than average. It's looking like we won't have a -NAO, unless models are biased from the last 14 years of having Winter +NAO, which has happened already in Dec and early Jan. So we'll have to lift that n. pacific ridge into the EPO/WPO domain for the colder stuff to verify most likely.

Hopefully it stays north. Models have trended in the last few days to more of a N. Pacific ridge, the EPS is well south of the GFS/GEFS, and has higher verification scores I think. -PNA keeps the jet stream a little too far north, although if the ridge extends well into Alaska we can get some colder weather. I would love that though, -EPO's are the coldest pattern and I always wanted to experience a tropical-cutoff block! For big snowstorms though, a gulf of alaska/south of aleutian 500mb low pressure is the greatest correlation, along with a 50/50 low.

Good game, good season. I love the Ravens!

Looks like that's a +270dm anomaly on the mean, so given average model error from that range, we have a 50% chance of having +140dm> anomaly.. the hope is that it moves a little north, instead of staying over the n. pacific water.

Negative PNA is not what you want to see in January. In January it has a higher SE ridge correlation than other Winter months. Other guidance had been showing -EPO/-WPO, more of an arctic ridge than N. pacific ridge. Hopefully it trends back.

Right back to -PNA. Year of the La Nina.

0z EPS is much cooler than the GEFS in the extended

It was actually an impressive -WPO/-PNA hybrid December.. +300dm anomaly for the month is rare. -PNA doesn't go real warm in the Northeast in December And -WPO is cold in December (default is positive, so it's opposite) The combination of those two gave us almost perfectly the anomaly composition for the month. Although it is interesting that the Southwest and Lower Midwest were so warm.. even though the pattern supports a ridge there, it did go much more extreme than the usual correlation. 2021 also had a +300dm N. pacific ridge, although it was more RNA-oriented