Stormchaserchuck1

Another period of significantly above

Some big +NAO's lately. This is based around the day DC hit 80 mid Winter.. it had never gone 80 Dec-Feb before that. +3.5 NAO Now we had a March +NAO that broke monthly records going back 75 years by +0.84! The end result? The most extremely anomalous ridge the US has ever seen. Big +NAO spikes are correlating with some warm extremes the last 3 years.

Luckily we can track that way ahead of time as Global SSTAs have a huge correlation with following season WPO

El Nino/+QBO December's: 6/6 months were warm in the Great Lakes/NE

It certainly seems like it, some places around here were in the 90s yesterday. We had mid to upper 80s in early March. Jan 26, 2024 DC hit 80 degrees. A lot of very impressive spikes in the past few years. Summer is a season where wavelengths relax so the general pattern (warming) is more prevalent. Not to mention 3 of the mostly anomalously warm months on record for CONUS happened this Winter

March monthly NAO crushed it.. +2.69 for the month. Number 2 highest March NAO on record was +1.85 It also beat the most negative month of March on record, 1962, -2.47.

Will this be a cooler Summer??

Yeah, I think it will stay around -0.5c lower for the duration of the event. The big cold season 500mb low has been trending less and less intense in the progression of Strong Nino's for the last 70 years. Will be interesting to see if this one stays weak like 23-24.

The RONI isn't an index like the NAO or Solar cycle. It's relative ENSO index, to account for global warming. To compare differences in pattern in RONI vs ONI is just to talk about global warming trend of late. There's not a magical formula in RONI that makes it stronger than ONI a good pattern. You are basically just saying before 2010 was easier to get a cooler 500mb pattern. I'm pointing out that the area where ENSO has most impact - the N. Pacific - has correlated better to the RONI than ONI as of late, making RONI a better gauge to ENSO's impact.

Last two years were -1.1 and -1.0 RONI, so average of last 3 years is -0.2c/yr. I've found that 4/6+ same ENSO state shows strong tendency to reverse in the following +1-3 years. Likewise, +3-5 years after a Strong Nino (23-24) has El Nino tendency, so we are kind of hitting this from both angles.

5 of the last 6 years have been Nina. The average RONI for last 6 years is -0.73c/yr

N. Pacific is ENSO's greatest correlation East-based shifts the Canadian ridge more east

Most extreme March NAO on record, +2.69. The composite is actually a cooler May, when rolled forward. Just interesting - look at all this equilateral warmth later in the year, correlating with March +NAO

Previous most extreme for March was -2.47 in 1962

The SW, US heat ridge, spreading east through the Midwest, Tenn valley, and Mid Atlantic makes more sense!