Stormchaserchuck1

Since 2012, May-Sept 60-90N SLP anomaly has flipped for the Winter almost every single time. We had a strong 90N negative anomaly this warm season. 5/5 months. I think it has something to do with the arctic ice min in 2012, but that's a strong -AO signal for the coming Winter, or at least high pressure 60-90N most of the time.

They are easily defaulting to ENSO-climo like everyone is doing. We have yet to see a more than 4-day +PNA period since the El Nino developed in April.

No! A major gulf of alaska low is getting a bad rap repeated into the ground by everyone because a handful of Strong Nino analogs were like that. ENSO does not significantly stretch wavelengths. What you are actually seeing there is a skewed sample, and that's because it's a small sample! I've plotted the Winter pattern 100 times, not 5, and the mean is average temps from DC to NYC, below average in Richmond. With -AO/NAO it's a solidly below average temp pattern.. as long as the -H5 doesn't extend into Alaska. A +EPO is a much different story.

We had one around the same time last year. They've happened in October in before. I use 9/30 as the "starting date" for potential Stratosphere warming/coolings. I think there are 10 somewhat significant + events in October since 1948.

El Nino's favor Stratosphere warmings, so I think given 100 examples the El Nino tendency is -nao, -ao. Strong -QBO in 09-10 really pushed that tendency further. West-based Nino/Strong -QBO.. yeah give me that Winter

Of the 3 Super Nino's that were total fail, 72-73, 97-98, 23-24.. 2/3 were -PNA I think that's how we most likely fail, not with a raging low pressure in the mid-latitudes (GOA)

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino's. The last Super Nino, 23-24, had 4 separate SSW's. This one is looking barely above average lol. +QBO may be a hindrance to SSWs this cold season but since El Nino's favor warmings, they kind of cancel each other out.

Wavelengths are fairly uniform. Composite of our storms >6-8" has a -120dm GOA low! That's so strong of a signal I have been saying no to many major snowstorm threats on models over the last few years when there is High pressure there instead lol. The mean composite for DJFM in Super Nino's is also -120dm.. so one encompasses 4 months, the other a few days but they are equal. The Super El Nino sample is not that large. If you only plot the Gulf of Alaska low anomaly in the Winter months our temps here are right around average, below in the Southeast, and above up near the Great Lakes. +EPO is really the pattern we don't want. But the few Super Nino analogs have run very different downstream than non-ENSO analogs of low pressure in the same exact spot in the N. Pacific! I'm saying that the difference shouldn't be so great and if the pattern happens again it may match the 100 all-ENSO analogs vs 5 or so Super Nino analogs.

Stratosphere warming is not uncommon in El Nino.

Meh. 4-2 against teams that are 9-16 without playing them, and 2 unlikely wins and beating Ten barely. And the Browns probably aren't as good as 4-2. Hopefully they get it together going forward.. The offense with Lamar and Flowers has looked explosive at times.

Yeah I think the whole year is when you have the strongest event on record, and there are basically no negative H5 anomalies in the mean April to the present. Will be interesting to see if the pattern sets up for the 1st time as the N. Hemisphere Winter comes, it did happen for the S. Hemisphere Winter.

Nov-Mar +AAM 30-50N is a common pattern.

Yeah I mean I'm 39F at 10pm. It's felt cool from the 2nd half of Summer on. I think there will be -AO tendency this Winter. And the N. pacific is looking nothing like El Nino right now... still.. told ya lol ENSEMBLE LOOP Will be interesting to see the N. pacific pattern this Winter. Monster low pressure likely won't dominate

I'm not saying it can't snow, if the Pacific neutralizes we can do it with -AO, which I think we will have some -AO this Winter. But I'm pointing out a very likely flaw: long term modeling in the N. Pacific.

I disagree. Seasonal models and several weeks out models have show major error in the last few years. You can mark my words- the seasonal model mean is showing a -120dm N Pacific trough for DJFM. I think it will be significantly higher than that. Odds of them being too low is probably 95%. In 23-24 they were showing -90 to -120dm Winter mean and it ended up being +45dm. It's not narrow minded at all. Narrow minded is thinking it's going to be the same as all past El Nino's. History says Aleutian Low is an established El Nino pattern starting in October. That is not happening this year at all.