Stormchaserchuck1
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You sure about that? That seems kind of unbelievable. Would shatter some records. I know Tyhoon Dolphin recently got down to 5430dm or something in its core. -
Something to think of: With the aurora borealis making it so close to the equator for the first time in 500+ years, a few years ago, and this Record El Nino by +20% occurring 2 years after that, is there a connection? Are we possibly underestimating just how big this solar max was, or maybe the Earth's magnetic field is weaker? Solar Cycle +2 years before 2020 Just a coincidence? I know ENSO historically "evens out", and this one is "evening out" Nina's going back to 1998.
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TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F.
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Thanks! It looks like Dec 1957 was +7.4 QBO and Strong Nino That's the only ONI>1.0, QBO>+6 analog pre-1979. Dec 1970 Mod Nina, -17 QBO. Sometimes strong -PNA patterns have prevailed in Dec in Nina/-QBO. I could see how this would have been cold if not for the massive Aleutian block - notice the +150dm -NAO. (QBO is Strat - so more AO connection).
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You can actually make your own custom index, factoring in global warming, which is about +0.2-3 for Nino 3.4. In other words, 0.0 neutral is now with global warming +0.2-3. The point of RONI is to even it out, so you can track mid latitude influences more, but there are a lot of extra guidelines with it I think that make it vary month-to-month. Just factoring in global warming skew is helpful for seeing what pure ENSO event is like. On the seasonal model forecasts, it usually shows the timeframe somewhere on the top of the map. It's usually 1 month, or 3-months. The CPC officially uses RONI: Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO
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^QBO data only goes back to 1979, but add that and Dec is even warmer! I'm really curious to see what this Dec will look like.
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Dec-Jan ONI has higher correlation for Feb than Feb ONI. I don't disagree that El Nino's have been historically cold in Feb though. In fact, I would say the stronger, the greater the cold signal should be. 2018-2025 however was the most -PNA on record for Feb by almost +50%! I'd watch the PDO there.
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^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for the month of Dec both times. It didn't happen lol
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Oh, ok. Fwiw, I kind of saw it coming.
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I'm not sure I understand your point? You think this year is different from the 2017-25 average because you had a localized thunderstorm?
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Lower midwest too. El Nino STJ has long tracking moisture storms across the lower part of the country.
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It's a pretty smoothed out map though. >1"/month over a 9-year period for like 50% of a region is pretty strong! If you go through year-by-year, almost every Jul-Aug has been above average in the eastern 1/2
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Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though.
