Stormchaserchuck1

6z GFS a miss 2" for Richmond - Va beach

6z NAM has a kicker diving into the Great Lakes It's close though.. might do it We need more wave spacing or 1st wave to be primary energy.

0z EPS is actually real cold Jan 26-29

Nice pattern. Not real strong anomalies, but things are where you want them for cold/snowstorms right in the middle of Winter.

Probably a wintery pattern shaping up. Here is the end of 0z GEFS. Nice cold, also looks like some more +PNA getting toward the end of January. My theory that central-ENSO-subsurface warmth (Kelvin wave) correlates with N. Pacific +PNA in the now-time is verifying, at least this time around.

0z NAM vs 18z GFS lol

NAM is definitely pushing the trough further west, near the Rockies at 51hr. A little flatter out ahead of it though.

Fwiw 0z Hrr 30hr vs 18z GFS 36hr

My friend said there's a report of 6" NW of Detroit. I would guess it's a deeper 500mb as the low looks organized on radar. See how it does for the later storms in the next few model runs..

Today's storm is busting much snowier in the Detroit area. They were suppose to get flurries, and now have 4"

One in the same lol!

Are you cliff diving because of 18z runs? I couldn't believe when I saw 18z, I haven't checked for a day, and now there is a low from the gulf coast up the coast! It even gives Florida panhandle snow again! Very positively surprised. +PNA storms don't vanish as easily as -PNA There may also be snow for the Patriots home game Sunday

See what happens when the PNA goes positive low pressure on the coast correlation Notice how it's much higher than forecasted too.. 14 day had it at neutral.

February before an El Nino the next year

I don't think the pattern is like 22-23, the Strong Nino in 23-24 changed it up, as did the Solar Max starting in May 2024. I can tell that we want to go El Nino.. Not surprising that we might transition pretty fast. The US 500mb composite for this Winter so far is exactly like what it is before El Nino the next year. Here is February March