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Stormchaserchuck1

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last year March - October was all +AO monthly, 8/8 months. It looks like this March - June will be starting off +AO, 4/4 months. Edit: It looks like a east-based Nino/-PDO Winter composite, when rolled forward. I always like 2nd points to the same probability.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm wondering if TAO/Triton will pop a +8c in the subsurface in the next few days, as it continues to warm. It's really taking on a Strong east-based dominance.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here you go guys June El Nino analogs
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still doesn't seem like a wet pattern. I'm sure El Nino will give us a boost, but in the long run we may go drier.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it would favor more -NAO events going forward (decadally). Be careful that you are calling the -AMO right now is not from a lot of +NAO/+AO, especially in the warm season. Immediate term the central-south Atlantic has -0.3 to -0.4 SSTA correlation with +NAO conditions. I know, correlated immediately, inverse in the long term.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last image of that NASA SLH makes me wonder if we are setting up a big La nina roll back, with the way it's unfolding so east and that cold subsurface water popping north of New Guinea. I think the tendency is +ENSO for 2-3 years relative to swings and stuff so we'll see.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^That's a good point. Definitely watch the S. Hemisphere Winter to see if it's propagating to the mid latitude Cell. Pretty good correlation you found there, I like how it's a sea of yellow otherwise.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    +7c has popped in the far east, highest of the event so far. Still warming. Definitely taking on an east-based look
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    -23 Daily SOI today If May ended now, it would be the 6th most negative SOI month since Apr 2016. Apr-May would be close to the 2nd lowest 2-month period since Apr 2016. Definitely an El Nino. I just don't know if it's going to go off the hinges in global pattern domination.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    In other news, we have a pretty good +AO setting up for the early Summer (May-June), for the 3rd consecutive year.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't recall 23-24 expected to be that warm. Seasonal models, especially the Euro, constantly had a trough over the Mid Atlantic in the mean, below average heights. -QBO was expected to dip the AO negative. We did end up having 4 Strat warmings that Winter, but +NAO won out. The -PDO/east-based Nino composite worked out perfectly, a warmer version of 72-73, but many people realized that only after the fact. It led to a lot of PDO reliance in 24-25 and 25-26, which then busted people too warm lol.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Similarities to 2023 and later on in June in 1997.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    CFS has an extreme trend bias. It runs daily so you can find some big runs in there sometimes. The last few La Nina's it had peaks in the Mod-Strong ONI range on a few dailies.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since Summer 2002, just about every super dry period has been equaled out thereafter by super wet. This year we have an El Nino seemingly kicking in.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess I've been harping on it a little much, you're right it's still early. If the AAM goes over +3, that's impressive and more of a -NPH signal for the rest of the year imo. It will be interesting to see what actually happens after that, as the AAM tends to see-saw between positive and negative bouts, about every 35-40 days.
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