Stormchaserchuck1

I would be pretty excited if the Euro showed that

Let's see. These types of situations might go with the models that are a few degrees warmer. I'm not just saying that - many storms hold the warm air when they are riding a frontal boundary like this, especially around DC.

It's a much better model. NAM might be worse than the GFS.

Even at 60hrs, I'll take the Euro over the NAM.

I'm sure it's been mentioned but the 6z Euro is really warm. I was thinking models would start gravitating over to the GFS yesterday, when it was consistent and increasing every run, and other models were starting to trend. That was like 6 runs in a row with a near blizzard! We just don't do big snows without an optimal setup these days. These frontal boundary stationary fronts, with us being on the warm side, always go this way.

When it starts warming at the surface by April, we'll see which regions are going where.

Really warming up in the eastern-subsurface. Probably going to start to surface in the next month or so. SOI isn't on board yet, but it has been lagging the last 3 years: 25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25 24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all 23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month.

Colder Spring probablity? AO/NAO/AAO run in decadal patterns, and run pretty together. Sept-Dec 2025 had a pretty good run of -AAO: 2025 -0.080 -0.271 0.733 1.138 0.509 0.209 0.753 0.357 -0.709 -1.236 -1.324 -1.136 That rolls forward to a -NAO signal for the following N. Hemisphere Spring (+6 months) [map correlation is default positive, with both sides included, so for -AAO it's opposite]

5 month SOI.. Oct-Feb 25-26 is still going to be the highest since 2022. And we're seeing more of a Nina pattern here in the 2nd part of February and March, despite warm subsurface

Warmer overall right now, but not a "classic warming" This Winter is going to finish with greater warm anomalies than cold anomalies at 10mb.. which matches QBO. For the 4th Winter in a row.

SOI has been lagging the last few years 25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25 24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all 23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month.

Still no signs of pattern change in March on long range ensemble models

I still have full snowcover from Jan 25. This was just taken

560dm ridge over DC?.. hmm might have a tough time cooling down

I think temps are going to be an issue