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Stormchaserchuck1

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About Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was 15, keeping a weather journal. Only year I ever did one. Picked one hell of a year for that huh! I was looking back and there was snow 4x in October, but it could have been flurries, or even just flakes
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks slightly negative overall.. with seasonal models. I just don't know that I think we are in a -NAO time right now
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    You got it with those correlation maps.. lack of a SE trough accentuates SE Canada ridge, or extends it south. The issue I think is - what is the Pacific pattern in that circumstance? It may favor a ridge NE of Japan or west-based -PNA with the NPH area off the West coast (most impacted region of east-based Nino) having a negative anomaly. I don't think the EPO and WPO are big parts of the ENSO/PDO, a little more random further north than what we are discussing. Negative EPO could come to our rescue this Winter but that index is the hardest to predict seasonally.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPS with a >5940dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands at Hr 360 It's completely backed of the <-250dm at D10.. now models have like -150dm max and the pattern only lasts 3-4 days
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Locally. I just had 3 consecutive nights in the 40s. No major heatwaves late Summer for the 3rd consecutive year.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nothing too unusual
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well, 8 named storms and it's still September.. not bad. Shear in the Atlantic has been record high this season. I think the old days of 9NS/yr average, pre-1995, may be done.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily PDO has been tanking.. it's near -2 right now
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Under. Late Summer to September has been pretty cool.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say October snow is a good thing. In 2002, it snowed here in October 4x.. I had 125" that Winter, easily best of my lifetime. It snowed all the way until early May 2003, patterns tend to be longer term.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO's only inversely correlated month of the year to DJFM NAO is October.. opposite correlation.. the Pacific is linearly correlated at 57%, but sometimes in El Nino's a favorable Pac October shifts to unfavorable (+EPO) for the Winter. That might just be because of not enough examples though.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, seasonal models showing -200dm monthly +PNA in the N. Pacific doesn't seem likely. They are heavily ENSO-bias, need to be reprogrammed
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    As 40/70 Benchmark would say, the kiss of death for the Winter
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    1:1 correlation with Strongest El Nino on record. Record low ACE to date too.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    What happened to Mark Andrews 1yd QB sneaks? They worked so good last year, I think worked every single time. Not using it almost costed the game.
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