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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Eastern subsurface is roasting.. these are the highest daily anomalies on TAO/Triton of the event so far.. +6.5c
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    23-24 was "la nino" which I'm afraid we are on pace to repeat. Dec-Mar was very wet though, so line up a -NAO and it could be good just like other Strong Nino's. DJF NAO 23-24 was +1.08/month that Winter.. since March is not recently much of a Winter month
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    DJFM averaged out positive, +0.05/month. December had -0.97 but +EPO overwhelmed it. the negative H5 in the pacific extended north to +EPO that Winter, which dominated. It had short periods of blocking.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, a pure 82-83 or 97-98 type Nino wouldn't be bad if it happened like 6 times out of 10. you might still get above average temps, but line up a -NAO with the STJ... I contend that +NAO isn't a constant with east-based Nino's like history suggests, It's more random than it appears in limited analogs.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is the start of a very warm pattern for CONUS, to finish out May. I wonder if we're going to start doing what we were doing a few years ago where when the actual day is mild or ridgy, the long range models adjust for the same pattern in the extended. 80F here at 10am
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like the forecast has increased a few degrees to 95-96 for a high both Tues and Wed
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    75 analogs weighted, +2.0 next year El Nino is 2.0x, -0.5 next year ENSO is -0.5x, etc. 01-02 is probably about 2% of the composite. 96-97 is about 3% of the composite
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    June is pretty neutral just Nino 3.4 ENSO events that peak more later in the year have more of a pattern -NPH
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    The US pattern "pre-El Nino" has hit every single month since November. CPC 3-4 week forecasts are showing that hitting again. It doesn't mean there has been a N. pacific low though, which is usually the main staple mark of el nino.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with El Nino almost to a T
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Little bit of temp bust today, it was suppose to be low 70s and at 3pm it's only gotten to 65
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC 3-4 Week forecast going with an El Nino precip pattern.. should be interesting to see if it verifies, it's been running dry
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    June Nino 3.4
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^The main correlation is in the NE Pacific and it doesn't look anything like it through the end of May. In June and July the ENSO-500mb correlation is weaker, but May is usually a pretty strong month, even with developing El Nino's.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    It will probably go Super, I just don't think it will be an all time record breaking event on the RONI. Were also not seeing a +PNA, or -NPH in the next 15 days.
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