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Stormchaserchuck1

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  1. Models in the medium/long range missed the European heatwave, just like they recently caught onto this Canadian ridge in the next few days. They might be a little less reliable right now.
  2. Good run of -SOI.. we could make a run at most negative 2-month period (Apr-May) since 2016 25 May 2026 1011.06 1012.85 -25.41 -12.61 -3.54 24 May 2026 1010.19 1012.80 -31.69 -12.71 -3.18 23 May 2026 1011.70 1012.55 -18.21 -12.02 -2.76 22 May 2026 1012.15 1013.20 -19.74 -11.50 -2.49 21 May 2026 1010.85 1013.05 -28.55
  3. This is what 1997 was like.. June is finally getting close with a Canadian ridge now showing up on medium-range models Edit: You could say May is pretty close
  4. They are just expressing what they think should happen. We continue to be in this mid latitude Hadley Cell expansion phase, despite El Nino.
  5. Pretty interesting what continues to transpire in the North Pacific, despite El Nino I don't think we'll be getting a follow up-Strong La Nina anytime soon (years), there is an ebb and flow to the Pacific-ENSO pattern.
  6. I kept checking the NWS because the weather app on my computer kept showing 50s for highs. NWS was always mid 60s or higher. I didn't get above 54 yesterday, and 50 today, at least for middle of the day highs.
  7. Decadal research through the 1900s shows that the AMO is correlated to SE ridge/trough patterns.-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j
  8. I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think.
  9. The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0.
  10. 57-58 and 65-66 also didn't have a strong east-based orientation. Since 1948, only 5 events: 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 have been basin wide Super Nino. Kind of interesting that this will be the 3rd one in 12 years, in the midst of many weaker La Nina's.
  11. No surprise here NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  12. NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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