Stormchaserchuck1
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I understand that has happened in the past, but I would still prefer a +PDO in east-based Nino. Remember that correlates with warm water in the GOA and off the West Coast. PDO is further west than east-based Nino position, and doesn't necessarily only fuel it. It can shift things a bit west if strong enough Some of the east-based Nino composite is warm in the NE because of +NAO (which is a more random part - if anything warmer 10mb in +ENSO may slightly favor -nao over a large enough sample). Jan 1998 is an anomaly, but I'm willing to say if that upper latitude pattern happens 10 times in east-based Nino it's cold in the east 8/10. Some times things just don't line up like they usually do. See Dec 2022 and March 2023 as 2 good examples of that. It's only because the correlation isn't 100%. -
Yeah.. better models don't really show it. 30 days until the correlation increases by 3-4x!
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Thanks! They don't have SST so I will still have to find something for May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTA index. Here's that arctic -H5 for the warm season this year 90N.. just where my reverse correlation for the Winter is the highest. Expect 90N H5 ridging for the DJFM mean.
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Thanks!
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Well in the Deep south +2-7F occurred in August and the model at a 0.0 month lead had ~0F. Denver verified +4F vs the models -3F.
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It's interesting because it seems to be effecting the Southern Hemisphere. October is the start of big wavelength correlations, so it will be so interesting to see what happens in about a month! If the -H5 doesn't form over the N. Pacific, score a big one for the PDO.
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I've been traumatized by this ridge in the SW, US/Rockies for the past 1 year. There are +6F anomalies for the whole 12 months! Also looking at global temperature every day, it really has gone warm lately. France has also seen 5 record breaking heat waves this Summer. We can do a cold pattern in the Winter, but I don't know that the upper latitudes (blocking potential) won't be squeezed out by El Nino or the -PDO/whatever the global pattern is in the Pacific. Fairbanks, Alaska was 1F away from their lowest Summer max temp all time, and I ran those analogs forward to find out they go +EPO in Winter.
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^It must have an error with surface based warmth then.
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Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol
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CANSIPS has a pretty strong cold bias.. check out what it had for August at 0.0 month lead vs what actually happened. July 25 it did the same thing, -4 areas verifying at +2 and stuff like that.
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5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI): 9 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +1 year: 5 La Nina's 0 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +2 year: 4 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino
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-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE.
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Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related.
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Yeah 20 years of global warming after that. We realistically need a -EPO or -NAO. A lot of people don't realize, but we have yet to see our 1st N. Pacific trough since the El Nino developed! A lot of these Super Nino analogs have something like -150dm for DJFM, lack of awareness about the current pattern imo
