Stormchaserchuck1

You keep saying the same thing over and over

An example of analogs working: March +NAO was top 2/900. When rolled forward to May, it is surprisingly cool, and this is the idea being adopted by CPC going forward Pre El Nino May: Nice combo of the two: warm in PNW. Cool elsewhere.

Continuing to look like the roll forward March +NAO composite.. when you have something so strong as top 2/900, it does have validity

It's the context in which you use it though: If you were saying it is biased colder because of the 3-year period after the eruption, that would make sense, but another pattern prevailed, opposite of the Pinatubo probability.

I'm big believer in Global SSTA's the year before, May-Nov, being a great indicator for Winter WPO. A big one is the Indian Ocean - Warm SSTAs correlate with +WPO at 0.5 (75% chance of positive) and visa-versa for cold SSTAs, relative to the global mean.

Cooler start to May March 2026 was 2nd most positive NAO on record out of 900 analogs. Roll forward to May looks like a match:

91-92 is my favorite analog right now

Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions.

I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years.

Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's: 6-14 day CPC forecast

Let's see if it makes it all the way to Nino 1+2

Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs. >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m

^Matching developing El Nino's in Apr-May

36/18

I'm not too upset about missing the HECS because it would have been gone in a few days. The Jan 25 storm sticking around for 4th longest on Baltimore record makes this Winter, imo. even though there could have been more light snow events. I think it only snowed here (flurries or more) 11 times the whole Winter. 19 last Winter, and under 10 each of the previous Winters since 2018. A light snowfall drought. Such a thing actually predicts future Winters at 0.2 correlation.