Stormchaserchuck1

Pre-El Nino Summers have a pretty good correlation at being below average, especially around the Great Lakes

Not in March. The DJFM NAO was close to +0.60, sustaining the decadal +NAO state Me and Ray said the AO would be lower than the NAO. That happened, the DJFM AO was -0.25 It's more accurate to say the AO cooperated this Winter

What I find interesting about the global average temperature, is that it has gone exponential, when mostly La Nina's have occurred since 1998. Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. More than 50% of years have been La Nina since 1998. Had it been 33-33-33, global average temperature would have been higher over that time! The quick re-hit of Strong El Nino this year is going to push us back closer to the long term Neutral ENSO mark.

Lack of understanding what ENSO is if it's constantly pointed out that Weak-Moderate is better than Strong+. I'm not talking about its orientation changing. It's funny how a few analogs can make people prisoner of expectation. Logic test: What's a super La Nina like?

You have to pay to basically be able to upload files through the board

Early indication is a +NAO April, which is a bearish Atlantic season probability, with half of the analysis period still to go (Apr-May total is base period)

-17 SOI today, finally pushing the 30-day negative

^What was most impressive is that the largest anomalies occurred in the south vs the north. It could have been up to 1.5 magnitude higher if the core anomaly was over the Upper Midwest and Montana. It was also impressive how monthly records were set with more than 10 days to go in the month.

Well yeah, we had an El Nino in 14-15. A better comparison would be years that were coming from Neutral or weak Nina

Well -10 isn't very strong. Those early March readings >+20 were strong. Will be interesting to see how the SOI responds to this Kelvin wave coming up.

Another period of significantly above

Some big +NAO's lately. This is based around the day DC hit 80 mid Winter.. it had never gone 80 Dec-Feb before that. +3.5 NAO Now we had a March +NAO that broke monthly records going back 75 years by +0.84! The end result? The most extremely anomalous ridge the US has ever seen. Big +NAO spikes are correlating with some warm extremes the last 3 years.

Luckily we can track that way ahead of time as Global SSTAs have a huge correlation with following season WPO

El Nino/+QBO December's: 6/6 months were warm in the Great Lakes/NE