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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    You might be surprised what a Super El Nino can produce pattern wise in the Winter,, an event that isn't totally east-based allows the GOA low/+EPO to disconnect a bit. A lot of warm bias from limited examples. I think there are some really cold Strong Nino's in the 1895-1948 dataset, or at least very warm Strong Nina's (counter-examples) Here's one.. strong -SOI in the Winter of 1911-12 Another strong -SOI Winter
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    A little dip the past 2 days +1.4 over the past 3 months though puts us at +2.0 by mid August if the trend holds consistent
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Can't we just accept it's warming ~0.1F a year and move on? The physics of meteorology is far more interesting. I responded to bluewave because it sounded like he was thinking the general warming would be a dominant-pattern causing thing. There is more high pressure with global warming, but there is still a lot of year to year variance. In 2025 we had more low pressure centers. In late August 2025, we actually set the record for lowest 500mb on record for the month for the Northern Hemisphere, and there were these cold 500mb anomalies setting up May-Sept 2024 too. I'm curious to see if this warm season has a relative spike of cold H5 like the last 2 years, or if that doesn't occur this year.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Right, I'm just running all the data (73 years +events) and showing that in the data there isn't really a difference.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, +2 years after a Solar Max correlates with El Nino at 0.2 (57%). Here is the Winter composite +2 years after Solar Max There were/are 3 things going for El Nino this year: 1. We had 5/6 La Nina years (RONI). History says ENSO balances that out in the next 1-3 years, 2:1 El Nino vs La Nina tendency. 2. We had a Strong El Nino 3 years ago (23-24). History says that there is a "2nd wave", as similar event happens vs dissimilar 2:1, 3-5 years after Strong ENSO event. 3. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty strong El Nino composite:
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Phase shift.. it will be interesting to see if the N. pacific low responds. So far there are no signs of it on long range ensembles, even though ENSO usually correlates with it pretty strongly in the NPH area in May
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's pretty close to average throughout the year - slight uptick in Nov and Dec to above avg. Nov-Feb of strongest El Nino's:
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    0.15 correlation, if average is 4.00", that's 4.60"
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    1.5-2" of rain for half the month isn't bad.. it's about average. pre-El Nino May's are nothing significant in the MA
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    For 1 month. December, Feb, March, and April were all -PNA You believe global warming is a main driver of dominant patterns? I think we have more of a background -ENSO/-PDO state so it may not be like some of the classic Strong Nino's but I don't see the relevance in "new global temperature 3 years apart" aside from general warming.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Don't forget 2023, the last Strong El Nino, had 20 named storms, which is tied for 4th highest all time. PDO was negative in 2023. We haven't had a single +PDO month in the 2020s
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    +9F was kind of a weak scale anyway
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    MEI vs Nino 3.4
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Temperature thing on my computer says it's 82 here!
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