Stormchaserchuck1

0z EPS continues to be very warm April 1-8

^I saw someone post this a few days ago.. one of the coldest March's on record for Fairbanks, AK Alaska has been having one of its coldest Winters on record without actually much negative 500mb anomaly

US March 2026 temperature ranking vs historical should be interesting

91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92.

23-24 didn't have super negative anomalies in the Pacific like other Strong Nino's, but ENSO mainly effects the North Pacific High 23-24 cold season did have a NPH negative anomaly, which is El Nino. I see why RONI was +1.5, as the total N. Pacific pattern wasn't very influenced by ENSO seemingly:

Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based.

Most of the time the NAO doesn't correlate high on the west coast. March is an exception.

Yes.. +0.5 is really strong correlation

It's hitting Flagstaff the hardest. Their previous highest temp ever recorded in March was 73. They are in the 80s for it looks like 4 days. No UHI cause for this SW warm up.

Yeah not really any basis for the way the last 4-5 months have gone out there. One of the bigger record breaks on record.

0z EPS is really warm the 1st week of April. Like 70s to near 80

They were too warm the past 2 Winters in the east - but not before that. The past 10 Winters they actually have a slight cold bias in the east. Seasonal models played -PDO and PNA persistency, popping a SE ridge for the Winter, however if you extended these DJF forecasts the last 2 Winters to March, there is not as much colder than forecast verification. Despite what many believe, La Nina is actually not warmer in the NE. A west-based La nina may be, but La Nina's usually have cold Decembers and their main effect is on the north pacific high pressure (NPH), which is net neutral temps in the NE in the cold season. La Nina's and Strong El Nino's aren't both warm..

Yeah they are off with their conservative anomalies compared to the 91-20 average. It should realistically be +1F everywhere. To make that dark red is kind of weird, if you judge this last Winter's forecast on their temp anomalies, it was a huge bust in the Mountain west. They aren't in tune with where we are as a whole compared to the 91-20 average.

Just continues and continues

I'm not convinced that the Pacific circulation goes so far into El Nino. SOI this March is way higher than all other Moderate+ El Nino's (later in the year) on record (since 1950). This is March SOI rolled into the max ENSO time of year.. this is a +NPH-feedback pattern in the Hadley Cell, and slight cooling on the equator. April SOI, however, makes a much bigger difference: