Stormchaserchuck1

SOI has been negative 10 days in row, albeit lightly negative.

>10 degree temp bust cool for highs today

I remember we got real wet at the end of Winter 22-23. It was foreshadowing the coming Nino. And 23-24 was wet like a Super Nino DJFM, but was really dry in November.

In 32 Moderate+ Nino's we've never had a Winter temp pattern with a warm SE and cold NE. 0/32. Credit to gawx for doing the research. The Cansips is not showing something reasonable.

I'm not too sure we go cold ENSO after this El Nino. We had 5/6 recent Nina years. History says 4/6+ reverses +1-4 years 2:1 (El Nino favored 2x over La Nina) We also had a Strong Nino in 23-24, history says +3-5 years after that, El Nino is also favored 2:1. +ENSO tendency for 27-28 and 28-29 may temper the Nina snap back.

Global SSTA are about as classic as it gets right now for later in the year Nino 3.4 El Nino ^Even the Atlantic matches lol

I plotted from Don's warmest DJFM Phoenix years.. it's surprising that the DJFM that occurred a year later is cold in the SW. It has historically snapped back the following year.

Good stuff Don. +4.2F over DJFM number 2 is amazing stuff.

88 in DCA just like that. Warmth is the story this March/April 1. When the SW, US is warm first, we usually bust high a few degrees.

My 7th 80 of the year? something like that? Maybe it's number of 76+. Either way, we had a glacier of snow for a month 6 weeks ago. Nice contrast!

I think it will be basin-wide like 2015-16 2015-16 is also a +QBO match later in the year, and Phoenix which broke it's DJFM Temp record by 4.2 degrees this past Winter, number 2 on record was 2014-15, before the 2015 El Nino. Best analog right now imo

The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15): April 1997: +0.59 April 2015: +0.98 We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while.

Yeah, April 1997 had a really warm subsurface

Tomorrow we might hit +5c in the subsurface on TAO/Triton. I don't think I've ever seen it so warm. Will have to compare vs analogs.

Brings ENSO warm as far west as New Guinea lol