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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    CFS has an extreme trend bias. It runs daily so you can find some big runs in there sometimes. The last few La Nina's it had peaks in the Mod-Strong ONI range on a few dailies, I think.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since Summer 2002, just about every super dry period has been equaled out thereafter by super wet. This year we have an El Nino seemingly kicking in.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess I've been harping on it a little much, you're right it's still early. If the AAM goes over +3, that's impressive and more of a -NPH signal for the rest of the year imo. It will be interesting to see what actually happens after that, as the AAM tends to see-saw between positive and negative bouts, about every 35-40 days.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Why do you think the PNA and Southern Hemisphere High pressure is not responding so far? The same thing happened in 23-24. There's definitely an El Nino building in many aspects, but it's not propagating to the northern and southern latitudes as much as past examples, thus far, not a global dominating event. The +AAM should produce more of a northern latitude favorable H5 pattern, let's see what happens there in the next few weeks.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just not really seeing the corresponding pressure patterns in the North and South Pacific so far, in the mid latitudes. 1997 and 1982: notice how -SLP stretched in the Hadley Cell from 180E to 360E
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's the ridge
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Very cool!
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models in the medium/long range missed the European heatwave, just like they recently caught onto this Canadian ridge in the next few days. They might be a little less reliable right now.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good run of -SOI.. we could make a run at most negative 2-month period (Apr-May '26) since 2016 25 May 2026 1011.06 1012.85 -25.41 -12.61 -3.54 24 May 2026 1010.19 1012.80 -31.69 -12.71 -3.18 23 May 2026 1011.70 1012.55 -18.21 -12.02 -2.76 22 May 2026 1012.15 1013.20 -19.74 -11.50 -2.49 21 May 2026 1010.85 1013.05 -28.55
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what 1997 was like.. June is finally getting close with a Canadian ridge now showing up on medium-range models Edit: You could say May is pretty close
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    They are just expressing what they think should happen. We continue to be in this mid latitude Hadley Cell expansion phase, despite El Nino.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty interesting what continues to transpire in the North Pacific, despite El Nino I don't think we'll be getting a follow up-Strong La Nina anytime soon (years), there is an ebb and flow to the Pacific-ENSO pattern.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I kept checking the NWS because the weather app on my computer kept showing 50s for highs. NWS was always mid 60s or higher. I didn't get above 54 yesterday, and 50 today, at least for middle of the day highs.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Decadal research through the 1900s shows that the AMO is correlated to SE ridge/trough patterns.-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think.
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