Stormchaserchuck1

That trough over Alaska is low level warm air. I've just seen the pattern so many times over the years, and the downstream bias this range.. it will verify warmer here if the Pacific H5 verifies.

^In the very long range it looks like it's moving toward something workable. I'm more talking about the medium range and all these storm chances coming with above average precip probably through like Feb 20. I think they are rain. After Feb 20, the strong seasonal pattern of -AO may continue, and I did an analog research of WC ridge vs EC trough in Dec-Jan and found that after a short break in Feb, the pattern usually resumes in March, most of the time. Actually somewhat of the same pattern usually continues through the following Apr-Aug, more times than not.

I'm really seeing how extreme it looks on models. The last few days I was thinking the seasonal pattern of -AO may be enough to overcome it, or help the ridge go poleward hooking up, eventually, but today's models really went south. The classic measurements aren't going to have super low readings, but the 12z EPS has +400dm on the mean, with a trough over top of it in Alaska. What happens in Alaska and NW Canada has a lot to do with what happens with the PNA downstream too. Since 1998, we have been in this pattern of more troughing over AK/NW Canada vs the 1960s. NAO ridging isn't strong enough to cancel out that strong Pacific pattern, once the pattern change happens quickly in 4-5 days.

SSW November's? I don't know. Maybe 10? On my old computer I plotted all 10mb events since 1948, but I don't have that data anymore, just memory of what the end result showed. 10mb warmings are lagged to AO, and 10mb coolings happen with AO in now-time (0-day)

@GaWx Did a research earlier this season and found that a Nov SSW had a significantly high correlation with cold December and January. I found in my research that a Nov SSW had ~+35-40 day lag with the -AO/NAO, and that worked out this year, but the correlation numbers weren't so high on the Pacific pattern. Gawx also found that -ENSO/-PNA Decembers led +PNA January's 10/10 times! donsoutherland did an independent research and found the same thing. It worked out this year time 11/11. Why? I don't really know. The opposite side +ENSO/+PNA Decembers leading -PNA January's doesn't work out the same.

By the way, check out the ENSO subsurface. Torching

I'll always take a chance with this +PNA low pressure correlation (both sides are considered, -pna is opposite)

I just want a favorable Pacific pattern - I don't care so much about the NAO. In mid to late February, our average high creeps up to the low to mid 40s, so we do need a below average pattern. +EPO/-PNA won't do that >90% of the time. It is pretty bad that we had a lot of favorable patterns the last 2 Winters with not much precip, but that's a Nina STJ.

I don't like that look, the EPO is positive. The trough in eastern Alaska and western Canada is a mechanism to cause a fast Pacific jet and surface level warmth here in the east that you don't really see on 500mb. Sometimes in +EPO, the H5 will be neutral or slightly negative, but low level warmth dominates. We need that -PNA ridge to go poleward further east or NE. Otherwise we'll be in the upper 30s/low 40s for storms.

Another February, another massive -PNA (Aleutian ridge). Pattern change looks to take place around Feb 9th, enjoy your snow tomorrow.

You misrepresent things quite often. I get excited about weather, and let some of that excitement come through on the board, hoping to be like a bright light sometimes. I have been very optimistic on this Winter, from the start. I think there was one period in December where the pattern was bad but I predicted the 11" snowstorm well in advance.. remember you were even asking me, if not la nina and el nino then when, and I responded that although nothing was currently showing on models, we will probably be at average snowfall after the next few weeks, this la nina was/is not a "dead pattern".. and here we are. Besides that, it's unbelievable and childish that everything is about someone's bias.. so many extraverts on this board communicate like that. like you can only think in blacks and whites. Nevermind that there is actually a weather forecast being made. I should not get a "doom and gloom" bias from being down on snow over the last several Winters. We have been below average and like 90% of the storms I get right! If model shows snow 5-7 days out, I say too warm or rain, and it rains, that's not a bias! I agree that next Winter is not a definite good year, this Winters ridge in the Rockies and West coast is concerning to me. When we get a warm pattern some future Winter, it could torch. That's not a "doom and gloom bias", Im discussing the science of the situation. Patterns in the west lead us by time, sometimes years. History also says that this Winters pattern of cold NE/warm SW is likely to continue through March, and even Apr-Aug to some extent. I just made a post in ENSO thread about it. We may still have some opportunities this Winter.

Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March? Top 20 analogs Following Feb 500mb Following Feb Air Temp Following March Air Temp The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August

Really an interesting Winter for expectation vs trend and actuality. I think models might be a little too overdone on the warm up though, although they do develop +epo for some time which can be very warm. GFS ensembles are really warm around V-day. If we go cold in the 2nd half of Feb, I think the price will rise again.

Very interesting. I am looking for other ways to trade NG, because 1 Futures contract is $12,300, and on margin a month like this can swing +$40k. That's a big move for 1 month. UNG is the Natural Gas ETF, but it has a downward bias too strong to consider. Re: natural gas in an upward trend: It may be, but a current difference between $7.20 for the Feb contract and $4.41 March, says it was more about recent cold this month. The difference was within $0.80 of each other at the start of this month. I'm going to do experiment #2, since February looks like another below average month in the east, and the Jan uptick in NG didn't happen when models had it - ahead or way ahead of time - but at Day-0 when it started in actuality. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61644-2025-2026-enso/?do=findComment&comment=7984701 March Natural Gas contract currently priced $4.416 One month, Feb 2026 estimated, move: +15%. Projected end Feb 27, 2026 end: $5.078

Yeah, true, I was doing March because I thought the volume at the end of the month of Jan could be too low.. but you could have got out of it today comfortably. It was about a +100% price increase for Feb contract from Dec 31 to Jan 30. In the future I'll do the closest month to said forecast.