Stormchaserchuck1

It's a longwave pattern, so the 7+ days of highs in the 50s could happen + days. It probably gets warmer past the end of these ensemble runs honestly vs before. It's far ways out though, but you can nail index and general whole areas-of the hemisphere with the ensembles here. If they had neutral PNA/EPO and US ridging, you could say maybe not.. but the H5 is in a strong state on the ensemble mean so the 1st week of March is probably above average temps

Well +EPO is usually above. If the vortex over Alaska verifies, we will likely go warmer if not that day then the next few days. Here's the 6z GEFS

Weird.. the 354hr anomaly map is above average temps

Some heavier precip on the 10z RAP

Yeah, super +EPO

End of the 0z EPS is also giving us a +EPO-dominated pattern. +EPO is warmest of all the index patterns, runs the chance of having 7+ consecutive days with highs in the 50s or greater here locally.

Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO

384hr 0z GEFS Problem is where the Polar Vortex is MJO may offer some help by the 2nd week of March if it can stay amplified

97-98 was a huge El Nino, then we were followed by 3 La Nina's, 2 Strong Nina's. Huge El Nino's have been reversed in the following 3 years. Something interesting to ponder. Is it because of these strong El Nino states that we are getting multi-year Nina states in the years that follow? It's been a decadal pattern though, yeah, starting after the 97-98 Super Nino. Some think it's because of the low solar 2001-2020 that we hadn't seen that low since the 1800s.

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. It should be 33.3%.

Nice cold shot on 0z GFS. Dry, but one more dip into Winter

I love snow, but 4 months of cold for flurries more 6x so far this year is not worth it lol. I love being outside, having the windows open and stuff. I love the Spring. GFS looks cooler though. After Feb 19-20, looks like another decent cold shot thereafter. Kind of keeping up with the theme of the Winter so far.

Backdoor front Feb 19 on 0z GFS, keeping us in the 40s. Let's see what the Euro shows. GFS not really a good model.

It just snowed south of Tampa. Islip NY just had 19 consecutive days with a low temp of 19° or colder, the longest stretch on record, going back to the 1800s. It snowed 10" in Florida last Winter, which was the most on record for the state since the 1800s, previous record 4". There is meteorological reasoning, it's not because Donald decided to drive his car today. I'm not arguing with you global warming in general: There are macro stats that explain it well. I think it's more about you complaining and not wanting to concede that this was predicted 8 days ago, by methods you disagreed with. I'm not really engaging in your tangent about "where have all the borderline storms gone". I said it before, and I'll say it in the future, the Pacific with +450dm is extreme, and a fast Pacific jet disconnects the northern stream, and floods the US with low level warm air. A storm like this gets cutoff from the freezing line. It's not a borderline event at all: Our average high temp in the heart of Winter in strong -PNA is mid 40s. I don't care if 6% of the examples broke the trend. I know in 97-98 we had these "perfect track rainstorms" all the time.. I think 72-73 too. etc. I know the average statistics, and you are riding hard on anomalies, it usually won't work out.

Strong -PNA's and +EPO downstream effect is underestimated in the medium range by all models.