Stormchaserchuck1

By the way, since this is still a long range thread -- the EPS did MUCH better than the GEFS regarding the upcoming cold pattern. 5 days ago the GFS ensembles had huge SE ridge, and EPS was below average in the Mid Atlantic for last 8 days of January.

That one didn't have a good pattern in the Pacific or 50/50 low area (500mb vortex was well NE of the spot, technically a "south-based +NAO" -- it wasn't a backed up pattern, it was progressive). This one is a better pattern from the medium range: 50/50 is steady, blocking up north in Alaska, northern Canada, and northern Greenland/Davis Strait.

I made 2 posts about it being a case study, based on the CPC's cold long range forecasts for the 2nd half of January. Looks like it's going to verify as a predictor to the market.

Again, with a 1040mb High to the north, what the UKMET is showing is a wide swath of blizzard warnings It's been so rare lately to have strong High pressure to the north.. if it holds, blizzard conditions are the upside

1040mb High to the north would probably make that warrant blizzard warnings

Check out the point and click forecast Saturday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Best thing about it is, it gets really cold after the storm.. like single digits or below zero. Then we stay below average probably through the first week of Feb. It would stick around for a long time.

With a 1040mb High to the north as it starts.. close to blizzard

6z GFS almost has a 50/50 low.. We have a strong composite in our biggest snowstorms for DC/Balt for negative 500mb anomalies in the 3 areas I marked with a black line. In the last few days it's come a little closer. We need that Great Lakes trough to trend south or SW.

6z GFS is continuing to do one of these things.. it's at least showing significant southern jet stream energy, which is something we haven't seen for several months.

0z EPS has a strong signal for a storm around 162hr With so much CAD, it's likely going to either be a wintery storm, or slide south. Much less chance for rain, especially with AO near -3, and PNA neutral or positive around the coldest few days of the year, on average -AO is our best pattern for winter snow.. doesn't mean it can't slide to the south though. But a significant NW cut trend is unlikely.

Don't look now, but the 15z Hrr has moderate snow over the Baltimore area later today. Another 0.5" here

Snow finishing up here.. It rained most of the night, all of this fell within the last 2 hours

Winter Storm Warning in Florida panhandle!