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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just really pretty muted. If anything the orientation of precip is more La Nina like for +QBO. You are going to get some colors when it's only 64 years, random.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Be careful connecting QBO to STJ, as the QBO is a Stratosphere wind oscillation. The correlations with the troposphere run pretty low, AO-correlation being the highest.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is looking like we're going to pop a +9c soon on TAO/Triton. It's warming currently as the Kelvin wave moves east. That would put us ahead of 1997.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    02-03 had plenty of examples.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    It was my first snowless Winter as a kid. Thankgoodness I didn't know about ENSO yet or I would have really realized the potential that could have been, especially with -NAO January. I think the AO will be more negative this coming Winter, which is good- widespread cold at times.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was just mentioning that your analog composite of <-60dm for DJFM is probably too low. I used 6 straight months of -PNA as an example. That doesn't mean I expect the PNA to be negative, just that there are competing forces right now.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah last Winter we had something like the 4th longest streak since the 1800s where Baltimore had >6" on the ground (22 days or something). I love that - 8" of snow and 3" of ice on top there for almost a whole month of the Winter! That storm was really anomalous to the overall pattern last Winter. I'm glad it was timed at the beginning of the pattern.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well I can at least say with high confidence that it won't be a DJFM <-60dm anomaly in the N. Pacific. In these different times, analogs only go so far (our historical database is somewhat limited to larger cycles). It will certainly be interesting to see what goes on in the N. Pacific this Fall/Winter with the SOI as a top-5 negative event since the 1800s. The SOI being positive relative to ENSO was correlating with -PNA, but now that's not the case this year.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I had my biggest Winter last year since returning from CA in 2017, 24" here. -AO was the reason for that: but it was a dry pattern. In normal precip we could have done better. Kind of disappointing the last 2 Winters have been cold with below average snowfall.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    If I had to make a Winter prediction it would slightly lean towards above average snowfall. The reason is the AO may be negative a lot of the time, and that combined with El Nino STJ can really produce some big storms. On the other side the Pacific is not looking El Nino like at all, -PNA dominates, so we could be looking at a Winter overall above average temp wise with possibly average to above average snowfall.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Might be a coincidence because QBO is a Stratosphere index, but +QBO/El Nino has the highest correlated above average Dec I have ever seen. We are going to be strong in both signal this year.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    We have had a long term -PDO/La Nina pattern, call it a decadal pattern 1998-2025. It seems to have strengthened since 2016, and now in 2026 it's diverging from the S. Hemisphere/equator and the Northern Hemisphere. Up until now you could have said it was either, ENSO or PDO. The Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expanding during the time makes me think it was more of a decadal ENSO phase. But now with the N. Pacific significantly diverging from the SOI/ENSO SSTs,,, maybe it's something else related to the PDO. Or my personal theory is cold northern Arctic Summers could have a lot do with it. We also had 100-year low Solar 2001-2020. The max during that time was weakest since the early 1800s.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everyone was saying 1998-2025 SOI was such that it is probably biased positive now. This is about as respectable as a downward drop as you will see. Here's the last 2 days.. 90-day and 30-day are both below -20 now. 26 Jul 2026 1011.41 1015.60 -31.64 -25.66 -20.20 25 Jul 2026 1011.59 1015.45 -29.61 -25.54 -20.06 This is turning into a top-5 -SOI event since the 1800s, so yeah it's probably not biased positive with AGW.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really liking to see this -SLP 60-90N pattern for the whole Summer so far. Since 2012 that has reversed to Winter AO almost everytime. -AO with Nino STJ could be the fuel to give us big snow chances. However, without a monster low in the N. Pacific it may be more about timing and "threading the needle".
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things: 1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3 2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think.
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