66-67.95-96, and 10-11 were La Nina winters.As long as their not strong we can do fine..I'd rather have a strong La Nina then strong el nino..Strong el nino's are the worst..no cold air and strong pacific jet. However they are known for that one big snowstorm usually in late Jan or february.Example 83 and 16.
If the 360hr ensemble forecast is correct..it can still snow with that look in Januray..although a trough in the west there is really no se ridge to speak of, unlike last year. I think it snows here the first half of January.
Early January doesn't to me seemed challenged for snow...Looks like normal to a little bit below temps ..all you need is a SW..I don't know why that wouldn't work for this time of year.
If your looking for a solid medium forecast looks like day 5-7 are solid now. Thats a big change from 20 years ago. 7-12 day forecasts on the ensembles can show the right pattern but details are hard .12-16 days forecast even on the ensemles can be inaccurate. And the weeklies especailly after week 3 are not good.But it sure beats the 70's when 3 day forecasts were inaccurate.
That was a BIG eevent. Lived on the south shore in Western Suffolk at the time. Now out in the country of Central PA..might see a wind gust of 30 if lucky. Be safe,guys!
PNA looks possible for Christmas week..trough in the east ridge in the west. Problem is no real cold air. So yea might be a little above normal..chances of snow that week are mininal but not impossible. But as of now it won't be a blow torch.
The airmass could still be marginal for snow even in December.I would find it virtually impossible for us not to get snow again for another year. Winter officially didn't even begin yet.