Wow
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It's a beautiful setup there with the ULL. 0z NAM is slower with wrapping up the ULL show the sfc low track is going to stay well south. Should be a classic miller A track there. I'm trying to find a good analog storm here.. perhaps March '09 with with a 50/50 low in place!
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top right corner will verify that
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0z NAM @ 84. This looks promising. Sfc low over MSY. Pretty nice phase setting up and with the low heights over the N Atlantic it can't pull it up north.
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dude!
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No worries about the moisture.. it'll be there with the strength of this ULL. Actually the temps above the surface trended colder NW of the low
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It's a better track. Again, cold air supply is going to be the question.
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Here's the trend of the GEFS. The ULL trending south and height building overhead into the great lakes which reinforces the HP. Continue just a bit more and would put a lot more of NC in range.
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It's closer.. Still would like it to dig about 80-100 miles further south to pop a low on the gulf coast. It's tracking the low over central MS/AL/GA
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Compared to 12z yesterday, definitely in the right direction
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0z Euro had a favorable track and enough cold air is there to work with. Depends how quickly the secondary can pop to allow the lower and mid level cold air to sweep in.
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Yes slower with the low transfer. Pulls the primary low pulls into KY while the secondary moves through GA. OP GFS was further south.
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I like this trend, digging down the gulf coast will be ideal in this case with the marginal cold air available.
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Climo wise, this would be confined to NW NC and northward with a Miller B low transfer provided the s/w digs well into the deep south. Any further south and it'll pop a gulf low and it's Miller A ala jan 96. Some of the models 5 days out for that storm were showing this kind of set up initially...
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So we've got a ULL on the 8th that might make some mischief on the 8th and then a s/w to watch following up on the 12th that could deliver a gulf low
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We're in a place where only a couple of events define the season .. I think the best is yet to come snow-wise. It's been a looong time coming since we've seen a sustained -NAO sig .. definitely want to roll these dice
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it's coming. it's been 10 years since i've seen this, but a very sustained -NAO signature looks to be happening.. patience, people. once the PNA pops...
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Then one of them will accidently win soon enough
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it's a 'players are on the field' time right now. let's just see how they play.
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Pretty evident where the front is ..
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Just starting to move in here ... 52.4 and falling fast
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let's see if this wave can hang back a little more to give the cold air time to sweep in GFS trend:
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watching the baja low... TREND;
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just as HOTMAIL's dreams foretold (I hope there's at least one of you know catch this inside joke from many, many years ago)
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Bump again!
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Even more nice to see a -NAO that lasts more than a week! It's been nearly 10 years that we had a remarkable -NAO of any kind during winter.
