Wow
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ICON trend FWIW
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NAM in the Euro camp keeping the track south
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@81
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@78 the SLP is over Mobile AL ...
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Oh yes the 18z Euro is chef's kiss right there. No primary low pushing up the TN Valley and the 50/50 doing its job locking in the HP and keeping this one low and slow.
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A couple more movements like this and would get a lot more folks back in the game.
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Big improvement with the gfs .. less amped with the primary low . The hope is we can erase this trend over the past 24 hrs.
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Gfs finally trended more east/faster with the wave. Need more of this!
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Don't look at the surface maps
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Want to see it faster or weaker.. too much separation will let the low pull up too early
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ensemble mean still has the MSLP just off the coast.. not buying the inland track yet
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ice is terrible. Don't wish ice for anyone.
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Will need the 50/50 low to flex some muscle to keep this from pulling north too early
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18z GFS a bit further west with the dig of the ULL..
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ICON less dig but weaker... SLP still Miller B but not too strong to wipe out the mid level cold.
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That's a great track for W NC/SC, NW GA verbatim. Nice to see one of these unfold within 120 hrs instead of 240 hrs!
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https://i.imgur.com/OUUuzor.png
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It all comes down to how much energy gets wrapped into the ULL. Less is best for GA/SC/E NC. Stronger ULL will put out more precip but will be more ice/sleet with a stout HP overhead holding in the CAD at the surface. Still way too early to say. Ensemble means looks like a good average. Looks like most of the models are picking up on it and looking likely at least some of us are going to get plastered.
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Slower and digs further west which will amp it up too much and allow the axis to go negative further west and draw up a ton of WAA east of the ULL. Needs to back off of that some.
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here's a frame at 126 hrs. just precip but that's a blizzard right there for S VA and N NC
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ICON close to popping a secondary GOM low.. not as far SW as the GFS but in that direction. Looks like a good smack for N NC/VA at least
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Full blown blizzard conditions over NC, VA. Just an ideal run here.
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BOOM
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Impressive
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I-85 special coming up
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