Wow
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This be a hybrid miller A/B here ... Precip shield is trended down to the TN/KY border at 54 hrs.. with the speed of the ULL we could turn the corner ...
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1003 mb low S of FL panhandle at 51
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NAM is a bit faster .. not necessarily with the ULL center but the progression of the western ridge
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too late
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looks about the same
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well yeah, it's due to the ULL moving through faster...that slug of moisture with a ULL that strong to the WEST of us means the warm nose will be visiting sooner. Quicker it can catch up with the precip and SFC low the better. Compare to the previous runs from Monday/Tuesday...
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trend continued on the GFS runs
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the precip shield back toward KY continues to shrink... consolidate!!
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small step... was a bit faster. every bit helps.
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faster but stronger with the ULL... lots of stuff to sort out to nail down the snow/sleet/ice/rain lines
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stop looking at the little red L's !!!
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further east.. not really north
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Yes there's a bend in the isobars and wind barbs per the maps the indicative there's something there to push in enough WAA. But this is big step though.
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If the low tracks from FL panhandle to Charleston as shown, you are not going to have that much ice. It's a mostly snow/rain event. Climatology rules.
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ULL really digging south. FIngers crossed... This will significantly reduce the ice threat with a Miller A track. Ignore the precip maps showing ice everywhere.
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Wow the NAM just went Miller A .. looks like the model outputs from Monday/Tuesday. That would be huge to see the rest of the models move back to this!
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Weaker and faster is the ideal solution.. Once it's rolls east of the Mississippi.. let 'er rip
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NAM made a big move east and weaker with the s/w. That's going to tame the primary low. Maybe a Miller A isn't off the table quite yet...
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Better but matter how far south that surface low goes it's still a Miller B and there's gonna be a changeover to sleet and ice unless the ULL digs far enough south.
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GEFS following the same trend
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Here's a nice loop of 500mb GFS from 0z Jan 11 when the NW trend started and then starting to reverse itself in today's runs
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Surface reflection is still a mess but the trend is clear
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Out to 60... the ULL is just about where it was at yesterday's 12z run
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GFS continuing the trend
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Trend loop of the RGEM showing the trend west then trending back east over the past 36 hrs
