I think we're going to see a more consolidated LP with more moisture... it's slower due to this. Precip shield is farther north than any other run today so far.
Definintely agreement on the leading wave for Friday to put down a light stripe from S MS thru CLT. Question is if the southern wave axis starts to turn more neutral and bring in a continuing slug of precip for most of Saturday like the NAM/CMC/UKMET/NAVGEM
Still a big question with the progression of the s/w in the southern jet and it's interaction with the polar jet as to how it plays out with the LP and precip. Need a few more runs. It's tricky.
NAM is going to run a southern s/w low from the GOM. It's seperated and pulling in the precip shield. IF this is true, it would be more of a Saturday event with a singular low travelling up the coast than a zipper low on Friday. This is better for more W areas given the lack of HP.
It was about to do this on the 12z run as well. The lagging southern wave is given enough separation to develop. Interesting but unsupported as of now.
The slower and stronger it is with the southern energy, the better chance for it to swing neutral, but not too much or else you'll scout out the cold air in place. We won't have much of a HP in place for this one.