Wow
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Everything posted by Wow
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Yes, for our parts, this is one where we will need some good phasing to pull it negative. This is Jan '96 style with a wave diving south from MT all the way to the GOM.
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effects of the shutdown... the NOAA daily wx map archive is down due to "lapse in appropriation"
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Too lazy to research but has there ever been recorded single digit highs for the piedmont area of NC?
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Looks like that awesome FV3 run from several days ago during end of the run was onto something! Same time period
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Good things are coming
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Yeah, there's a s/w moving through right after the big cold bombs starts to lift, leaving the 850mb 0 line over the FL panhandle. Then another big arctic high with -40C air moves south from the N plains. That's how you get a big snow from New Orleans to Savannah, 1899 style. C'mon, let's make it happen!
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Verbatim, the FV3 cold would beat the Jan '85 outbreak. Greater area under -30 or lower 850 temps (Sorry, I'm slightly bored this morning :D) FV3 forecast Jan 21, 1985, 0z
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FV3 has been consistent of a very deep trough setting up.. a PV displacement into the NE... with a full scale -NAO block. The temps are likely overblown of course, given climo, but looking more and more likely of a serious below avg period in temps will be setting up, starting next week.
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Wow the 18z FV3 puts us in the freezer after next weekend. The climax is in 2 weeks from Sunday with widespread highs in the teens and 20s. LOL. Last sub-20 high here was in Feb '96. Here is the 18z (2pm) temp forecast for Jan 27:
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The mid to long term is looking good for threats of winter wx over the next 3+ weeks. Definitely below normal with temps.
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Already had one of those. Next.
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Hope to see the lurkers who post obs only during snowstorms.. like that guy Earnest with the wolf avatar up in Statesville!
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Yep I follow him closely too.. he always beats me out on rain and snow totals even though he's only a few miles NE of me. LOL.
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700mb temps on the HRRR have never been an issue... mostly closer to the 850mb level during the day tomorrow for the I-85/US-74 corridor on east...
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Yep.. Hwy 74 corridor on the edge
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As it usually is
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18z HRRR : Thru noon Sunday.. 12" line up to I-77, N of 85
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Yes, it's definitely close. I don't think we're going to know until we're right at the start.
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See the 700mb temp maps.
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NAM colder at surface but really gung ho on a 700mb warm nose this run. HRRR says nope, however.
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Well, the 12z NAM is looking better for CLT to RDU
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snow sounding
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Northern end looks like mainly snow running through the hourly soundings
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Very minor differences.. Pretty much on par with the 18z
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Yes yes.. rain/snow/ice line dancing around ... And will do so on forecast models until it's actually happening. I know how this plays out. The players are set. I'm waiting to nowcast to know my fate.
