Wow
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Everything posted by Wow
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Ain't no cold air being driven in on this one. HP is absent. THis is a manufactured cold air storm. Would like to see more separation of the s/w to get a decent confluence zone built in.
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Agree.. 850 freezing line is west of I-77. Based on the trough axis, it wouldn't be moving much further east unless is bombs out fast enough to pull the 850 low toward the sfc low center quickly enough. Even then it's still a W NC/SC/GA event.
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Wow the Euro is going for it at 168. Bombing out in the NE gulf
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Gonna need a strong PNA ridge to build to force that wave to dig that far south. This isn't like a weak STJ wave rolling through.
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Yes, for our parts, this is one where we will need some good phasing to pull it negative. This is Jan '96 style with a wave diving south from MT all the way to the GOM.
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effects of the shutdown... the NOAA daily wx map archive is down due to "lapse in appropriation"
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Too lazy to research but has there ever been recorded single digit highs for the piedmont area of NC?
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Looks like that awesome FV3 run from several days ago during end of the run was onto something! Same time period
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Good things are coming
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Yeah, there's a s/w moving through right after the big cold bombs starts to lift, leaving the 850mb 0 line over the FL panhandle. Then another big arctic high with -40C air moves south from the N plains. That's how you get a big snow from New Orleans to Savannah, 1899 style. C'mon, let's make it happen!
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Verbatim, the FV3 cold would beat the Jan '85 outbreak. Greater area under -30 or lower 850 temps (Sorry, I'm slightly bored this morning :D) FV3 forecast Jan 21, 1985, 0z
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FV3 has been consistent of a very deep trough setting up.. a PV displacement into the NE... with a full scale -NAO block. The temps are likely overblown of course, given climo, but looking more and more likely of a serious below avg period in temps will be setting up, starting next week.
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Wow the 18z FV3 puts us in the freezer after next weekend. The climax is in 2 weeks from Sunday with widespread highs in the teens and 20s. LOL. Last sub-20 high here was in Feb '96. Here is the 18z (2pm) temp forecast for Jan 27:
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The mid to long term is looking good for threats of winter wx over the next 3+ weeks. Definitely below normal with temps.
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Already had one of those. Next.
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Hope to see the lurkers who post obs only during snowstorms.. like that guy Earnest with the wolf avatar up in Statesville!
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Yep I follow him closely too.. he always beats me out on rain and snow totals even though he's only a few miles NE of me. LOL.
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700mb temps on the HRRR have never been an issue... mostly closer to the 850mb level during the day tomorrow for the I-85/US-74 corridor on east...
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Yep.. Hwy 74 corridor on the edge
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As it usually is
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18z HRRR : Thru noon Sunday.. 12" line up to I-77, N of 85
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Yes, it's definitely close. I don't think we're going to know until we're right at the start.
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See the 700mb temp maps.
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NAM colder at surface but really gung ho on a 700mb warm nose this run. HRRR says nope, however.
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Well, the 12z NAM is looking better for CLT to RDU
