Wow
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Everything posted by Wow
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If only we had some good CAD in place this would have been an epic winter storm.
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CFS improving... 850mb temp anomalies
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Well, well.. look who's back. Temps on the cusp with retreating HP but still in the game.
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18z GFS more phasing at 102.. this one is coming more north
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12z GEPS - Ensemble MSLP placements.. big change from 0z. Want to see the low trend faster to start moving precip up while the HP is in optimal position.
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I still think the setup is favorable for a winter storm for parts of the SE based on the overall pattern. Models are still all over the place and usually are with this kind of setup. The 50/50 low and a cutoff ULL sliding under the Canadian ridge.. it's usually a good outcome. I think there will be most phasing of the ULL by the time it reaches the SE coast to bring it further up.
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Abv avg December in the books more than likely. I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ?
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Actually tracks even further south than the 18z (!) but has a s/w moving across Canada that wipes out the HP. We'll see what the Euro & UKMET have to say next. Confident to say this scenario that the 12z shows ain't happening.
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Overall the GFS is consistent with the setup. Good trends. Surface reflection will bounce around.. just seeing the consistency with the upper level is good at this point in time.
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Yep.. as far as the main event is concerned with the strong upper low showing up. Now, there is a possibility of mixing early on because this setup may have one thing that March 09 did not - a HP ahead of the system thanks to a retreating 50/50 low. So could very well be a mix to snow for some in the CAD favored areas. Those EPS members are a good sign - most showing something and a handful showing what a potent upper low can do. It can drop a foot in 6 hrs.
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Based on the setup, there won't be much ice out of this.
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It's a great setup whoever ends up just north of the upper low track, so yeah based on history an upper low diving this far south it's good for those areas. Doubt very much it'll dig this far south...
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They are marginal as well but the rain/snow line will be determined by the trek of that 850 low. This is an interesting setup as we don't have a sfc low forming in the gulf.. it's a very suppressed Miller B storm! Reminds me a bit of March '09.. had a good thundersnow out of that one.
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Wow.. digging it wayy down into FL.. lol Anyhow.. still puts down a nice snow for W half of NC & SW VA
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This is an upper low digging far south with a coastal bombing of the SC coast. This is not an overrunning event. It'll be marginally cold at the surface.
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W NC getting hammered @168 hr
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18z so far at 150 hrs looks pretty good at the upper levels... Still has the Quebec block and the southern low is digging further south
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Yeah that's not gonna happen. We'll see what the ensembles have to say soon.
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All the models are "close" to making a big storm out of this... Euro has a good look on the southern wave but pulls the 50/50 out too fast. Canadian has a good look with the 50/50 low but doesn't have enough separation with the southern wave. GFS has the best look obviously at this time. Given it's 6-7 days out, I'm satisfied.
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12z Euro has the players there again but doesn't get the job done bringing down the cold air, pulling the HP out too quickly and throwing in a low over the GL
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Yes, the GFS is closer to the ideal setup with the S Canadian ridge over the southern low. Want to see the low placed a little more SE... but that ridge is really good to see.
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0z Euro was close with a southern slider but the high slides off too quickly. Still, the players are there. Good to see the Ontario/Quebec ridge which is a feature seen in most significant winter storms for our area. That keeps the dreaded great lakes low away. Just need to see the southern low closer to the TN valley at this time frame.
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33.1 and rain.
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This agrees with the 18z GEFS...slower, less amped storm. Presto! It's a snowstorm.
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GEFS is not in agreement with the OP... most members hav the sfc low much slower and weaker as a slider
