Wow

thru 48 hrs.. this shows the downslope min sliver quite well

Here's a loop of that HRRRX output

Nowcasting could be really awesome with this one

Oh this looks like a nice one just N of the I-85 corridor

Still a good NC hit per NAM (N of I-85 that is)

Looks closer to the 0z run

GFS and NAM in agreement

GFS following the same trend keeping more interaction with the s/w

Yeah, it rides 70 east of Raleigh. Either way its a good trend.

It's a hwy 64 special

Looks like a winner to me. That's a statewide smacking.

NAM continuing the trend of moving the s/w quicker at 45. More interaction with the polar jet

GFS vort energy leaning further west.. good trends good trends

Did I miss anything?

I ain't impressed. Better hope for a last minute tweak to make this more than just more token flakes (at least for W NC). But it could be one of those overperformers... just had one for N GA!

Not the 0z OP run (12z still coming in) but the EPS is similar with large HP overhead and a weak area low LP off the east coast. Good enough for now. BTW here is the mean MSLP on teh GEFS at 264 hrs. Nice overrunning type event here:

It's a good trend I will say. Hopefully it continues. Here is depth at 288 hrs.

Missed you WidreMann

Great split flow pattern showing up on the GFS with HP ruling overhead. That will give multiple shots of potential storm events as waves roll across.

Yes the GFS does look good there. That looks like a long overrunning type event.

Oh man, pivotal weather now has hi res upper air 6 hr maps for the Euro and soundings in addition to the surface data. The times are changing.

Yep.. actually it was quite a favorable pattern for a couple of weeks prior. Remember getting 2-3" in Statesville around the middle of the month which slightly tampered the horror of Jan 25 while watching everyone south and east of me get hammered. Never saw a single flurry that day.

It's way early, but I've got a bit of an eye on the big low expected to slam California around New Years. Models all over the place with it but possible it digs so far south it leaves a piece behind. Fingers crossed that we draw in some cold air ahead of it. Ensembles are showing lower heights over SE Canada/Northeast which would point us in the right direction for cold HP to build in the following week after New Years. 18z GFS pretty close to that, though suppresses it. That's all there is to talk about as far as snow chances go in the long range for our area. GFS @144

If only we had some good CAD in place this would have been an epic winter storm.