arlwx12

NWS is starting to roll out the 18Z GPS guidance.

Lost power overnight near Crystal City, got iit back a bit after 5 am.

Already on maple leaf watch (most of the buds have split into 2).

During Snowmageddon 2010, my Hill of Doom got a workout. Some of the sliders had to be stopped before going off the plateau and go down the next steep and try to crash into I-395.

As much as I've griped about shelling out $$, I'd rather have a foot of s*** than ANY i**. Things can be delivered in the first case (and shoveled away). The other case may involve accidents. May all the s***-lovers have all they desire.

Can Yoda (or someone else) please explain which model has half its members calling for 6 or more?

Remember: Some of us have to pay to be shoveled out. I'm NOT happy about the GFS caving. May it all go to sea south of Hatteras.

The latest from LWX -- Changed Discussion -- A cold dome of high pressure overhead will move off to our north and east on Wednesday. A low pressure system will quickly develop over southeast Georgia around late morning or midday Wednesday, before moving up the Eastern U.S. Coastline toward Cape Hatteras and rapidly intensifying into a big winter storm Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. Temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10 to 15 degrees below average only reaching near or slightly below or slightly above freezing, setting the stage for some accumulating snowfall widespread across our region. The winter storm expected Wednesday into Thursday shows a track and intensity that could equate to several inches of snow. This particular winter storm is still 4 to 5 days out from now so there remains some uncertainty as to the exact track and exact intensity and which model leans toward the best solution. The NAM model only goes out as far as midday Tuesday and can only show us signs of some front-running warm advection light snowfall spreading east across the western Ohio Valley. The GFS model shows a fast moving winter storm that could stay just offshore from Georgia to the Outer Banks and then out to sea. Thus, this track and speed would favor a few inches of snow across the southeastern third of our region from midday Wednesday through late Thursday. The UKMET is between the GFS, and the models listed below. The EUROPEAN model shows a strong winter storm that rides along the coastline from Georgia to the Outer Banks, slows slightly while moving north into southern New England, while rapidly intensifying. Because this model shows the rapid intensification between the mouth of the Chesapeake and New Jersey, it has much more snow than the GFS in our region. The CANADIAN shows a fast moving winter storm that rides along the coastline as well with a similar amount of snow as the EUROPEAN but may have its track a few miles inland which could decrease totals a little. Bottom line is that we may be looking a major winter storm but with subtle to moderate uncertainties in terms of snow amounts.

From the latest LWX discussion: (snip) Precip will spread across the region Saturday. Warm air aloft will overrun cold air near the surface, with a snow/sleet mix possible briefly at onset for many areas along and west of I-95. Accumulations of snow/sleet should be minimal as warmer air moves in aloft quickly, but a bout of freezing rain is becoming increasingly likely west of US-15 in particular Saturday afternoon and evening. Held off on any watches as 0.25" probs of ice are still modest, but the trend especially in hi-res guidance is up. Low pressure will move across the region Saturday night and keep a prolonged period of moderate rainfall in the region. An additional half to three-quarters of an inch of rain is possible. Because of cloud cover and rainfall Saturday night, low temperatures will bottom out in the middle 30s, which is about 10 degrees above average. Upslope snow in the Appalachians are expected to taper and come to an end gradually on Monday. Gusty winds will diminish as well throughout the day. Highs on Monday will be nearly 20 degrees colder than Sunday when the cold front will have passed through the region. One thing to note, cold high pressure that had set up shop behind the passing cold front on Sunday will be reinforced by a second area of high pressure Monday night through Wednesday. This high will keep temperatures Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday below average. This reinforcement of cold air could set the stage for a winter storm that could bring accumulating snow to much of the region Wednesday night through late Thursday. As more information comes in, we will be fine-tuning the timing, precipitation type, and precipitation amounts with this mid-week storm.

I hope that the 19/20 storm threat goes out to sea. If it does, I may stay in the top 10 in the snowfall contest. If it doesn't, I may have to bribe the lawn care people AGAIN to shovel me out.

WTOP said Frederick schools finally decided to close.

Just about all the DC-area schools are either closed or using remote learning, except for Frederick MD currently 2-hour delay but will reevaluate by 7. The Feds are on a two-hour delay/unscheduled leave or telework, Andrews a two-hour delay, Forts Belvoir and Meade "closed".

TV shows are citing over 40 crashes in Northern VA, MD troopers saying over 150 statewide.

Arlington must have treated/plowed my Hill of Doom. Slush/ruts in the street, plowed-in cars with lots of snow still on top of them.

DCA just posted 6 inches of snow depth.