RU848789

Nice NWS-Philly discussion of the possible 12/26 event. Would love to score a "surprise" snowfall on Friday. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 546 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025 Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high. Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring precipitation to our area. The 00Z suite of guidance had a significant change in course, indicating a much stronger high and weaker, more suppressed low. This solution would introduce potential for wintry precip for our region and much colder temperatures, quite the change from widespread 50s and rain from before. The shift in guidance was consistent between different models. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all showing this much colder, wintry solution now, however given this *very* recent change in course, have stuck with NBM for now until there is more consistency in a colder, more wintry solution. Precipitation is still likely, with 50-80% PoPs, however we could be dealing with all rain, a significant wintry system, or anything in between. Remain alert for changes to the forecast for the Friday timeframe.

Nice NWS-Philly discussion of the possible 12/26 event. Would love to score a "surprise" snowfall on Friday. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 546 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025 Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high. Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring precipitation to our area. The 00Z suite of guidance had a significant change in course, indicating a much stronger high and weaker, more suppressed low. This solution would introduce potential for wintry precip for our region and much colder temperatures, quite the change from widespread 50s and rain from before. The shift in guidance was consistent between different models. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all showing this much colder, wintry solution now, however given this *very* recent change in course, have stuck with NBM for now until there is more consistency in a colder, more wintry solution. Precipitation is still likely, with 50-80% PoPs, however we could be dealing with all rain, a significant wintry system, or anything in between. Remain alert for changes to the forecast for the Friday timeframe.

Understood, was just hoping such outliers wouldn't be in the snowfall maps you guys generate. Speaking of the PNS's I get while there are "partial" reports before the end of a storm when the storm is still going on, but I always wondered why the partial reports are usually still in the final PNA 12-24 hours after the event is over. For example, with Sunday's storm, there are partial reports from 6 or 7 am, when the storm wasn't over for the vast majority of people in our area until 9-10 am. Why not take these out? By the way, these are minor nitpicks. As I've posted earlier, thought you guys did a great job with this storm and much better than many other media sources, especially in going with 3-5" amounts along 95 and even up through 78 (and saying the most would likely be between 95 and the coast) when many kept with their 1-3" predictions for those areas.

Posted this on the NYC subforum and a NWS met said they took the Metuchen 8.7" measurement out, but I see it's still in the NWS-Philly's map, so figured I'd post it here. Speaking of inflated measurements, someone else in Metuchen reported 8.7" vs. my report of 6.7". There's simply no way that's right, as it's an outlier vs. all other county reports (especially when, generally, more snow fell in southern Middlesex than northern) and it's a huge outlier vs. the nearby Edison reports (6.6" and 5.6") and my report of 6.7". Even when I measured on grass, the most I saw was about 7.4" so I can't imagine how someone got 8.7" - and Metuchen is only 1 square mile, so it's not like there is some gradient across town. ...Middlesex County... Metuchen 8.7 in 0945 AM 12/14 Public Plainsboro Township 8.0 in 1100 AM 12/14 Public Cranbury 7.3 in 1045 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick Twp 7.0 in 1045 AM 12/14 COCORAHS Edison 6.6 in 1045 AM 12/14 Newspaper North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W 6.6 in 0426 PM 12/14 COCORAHS Parlin 6.4 in 0100 PM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick 6.2 in 1100 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Sayreville 6.0 in 1135 AM 12/14 Public South River 5.8 in 1119 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Edison 5.6 in 1145 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

You're welcome - glad the info was helpful. I'm kind of a nut about measuring accurately.

Speaking of inflated measurements, someone else in Metuchen reported 8.7" vs. my report of 6.7". There's simply no way that's right, as it's an outlier vs. all other county reports (especially when, generally, more snow fell in southern Middlesex than northern) and it's a huge outlier vs. the nearby Edison reports (6.6" and 5.6") and my report of 6.7". Even when I measured on grass, the most I saw was about 7.4" so I can't imagine how someone got 8.7" - and Metuchen is only 1 square mile, so it's not like there is some gradient across town. ...Middlesex County... Metuchen 8.7 in 0945 AM 12/14 Public Plainsboro Township 8.0 in 1100 AM 12/14 Public Cranbury 7.3 in 1045 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick Twp 7.0 in 1045 AM 12/14 COCORAHS Edison 6.6 in 1045 AM 12/14 Newspaper North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W 6.6 in 0426 PM 12/14 COCORAHS Parlin 6.4 in 0100 PM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick 6.2 in 1100 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Sayreville 6.0 in 1135 AM 12/14 Public South River 5.8 in 1119 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Edison 5.6 in 1145 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

Another good map below. I thought the NWS forecast was pretty good, comparing the final NWS snowfall forecast map from about 3 pm Saturday (time stamp says 10 pm, but that's just the one I grabbed at the time) to the actual snowfall map. IMO, that's a pretty good forecast. It had the maximum amounts along 95 and in south/central interior NJ and eastern LI right (even if a bit under-forecast) and had lesser amounts for far SENJ right, but it was a fair amount under for areas N of 78 and especially for Sussex/Poconos/Hudson Valley; however, they at least had 2-4" amounts for those NW/N areas unlike many other forecasters who had them around 1" or so and even had the 95 corridor at only 1-3". In the big picture, the take home message was a moderate (2-4") to perhaps significant (4-8") snowstorm for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region and that's what we got.

I'm familiar with the map showing snow reports, thanks, but I'm looking for the contour maps they put out after events.

Any snowfall maps out yet for NWS-Philly/NYC offices?

Final measurement around 11 am was 6.7"; as of 10 am we had 6.3" and then I did my 3rd shovel (so much easier in batches, lol) and as of 10:45 am with the snow winding down we had 6.6"; we got another 0.1" after that. Huge overperformer from my 5" guesstimate and the 4.5" NWS forecast (and some media forecasts for only 1-3" for our town).

As of 10 am we had 6.3" and then I did my 3rd shovel (so much easier in batches, lol) and as of 10:45 am with the snow winding down we have 6.6"; could get another 0.1" or so based on radar. Huge overperformer from my 5" guesstimate and the 4.5" NWS forecast (and some media forecasts for only 1-3" for our town). It's so pretty out there - great to finally have a decent snowstorm that was all snow and at/below 32F so it all accumulated. Biggest snowfall since 11.25" on 2/17/24 that was a freak megaband storm; our last "regular" storm with more snow was 7.5" on 1/29/22. Winds are about to pick up and it's going to get quite cold with lows in the mid-teens and it won't get above 32F until Wednesday, so shovel before sunset if you can as the snow was wetter than expected and will freeze solid later.

As of 9 am we have 5.7" otg at 31F and it looks like we'll hit 6"with another half hour of decent snowfall remaining and then some lighter snow after that. Starting to see a little wind bringing diem mini snow avalanches from the trees lol. Here's a pic.

Any reports from AC/OC/Cape May?

5.0" in Metuchen as of 8:00 am, which was my forecast for our house, so we're going to overperform by maybe 1", looking at the radar and the latest HRRR; temp down to 31F. Just went for a drive, for fun, on 27/1/287 in our area and these major roads were all a bit slushy and slippery, but not terrible (could go 40-50 mph on 287); local sidestreets that haven't been plowed are fun to drive on, lol.

Forecast looks to have been pretty good for all of the counties south of 78 (3-5/4-6"), but the storm has way overperformed for places like Sussex/Warren/Morris, Lehigh Valley, Hudson Valley, Poconos, etc., where many have seen 4-7" when 1-3" maybe 2-4" was predicted. NYC is underperforming a bit, at least at the official stations, lol.

5.0" as of 8:00 am, which was my forecast for our house, so we're going to overperform by maybe 1", looking at the radar and the latest HRRR; temp down to 31F. Just went for a drive, for fun, on 27/1/287 in our area and these major roads were all a bit slushy and slippery, but not terrible (could go 40-50 mph on 287); local sidestreets that haven't been plowed are fun to drive on, lol.

As of 7 am we're up to 4.4" otg and it's still 32F. Saw a report on Channel 7 of 4.8" from Metuchen - sounds a tad high to me, but it's possible. 5-6" looks likely now as I think we'll get another 1-1.5". Stunningly beautiful out there - about to go for a drive, just because.

As of 6:00 am we have about 3.6" otg, so 0.6" last hour, and it's still 32F, which is probably why the snow has been a bit wetter than I expected - great packing snow, although not sopping wet, as I just finished my 2nd shoveling of the storm. I think 5" is doable looking at the radar/HRRR model. Here's a pretty pic of the church across the street.

At 5 am, about 3.0" otg, so another 0.7" the past hour and it's snowing fairly heavily (not crazy heavy but visibility probably 1/4-3/8 mile; temp holding steady at 32F. Radar looks good for another 2", hopefully.

At 4:00 am up to 2.3" at 32F so 0.7" the last hour and it's snowing close to heavily with beautiful 3/8" dendrites. Thinking we'll come close to my 5.0" forecast, but not sure if we'll make the 6" warning criterion.

Updated NWS map with a new bullseye in east central NJ - Monmouth/Ocean FTW...

After a nice nap, at 3:00 am we're up to 1.6" and snowing moderately at 32F and I just finished my first round of shoveling. Needless to say, it's gorgeous out there, especially with light wind and the snow sticking nicely to all of the trees. What I shoveled was fairly wet, but what is falling now are much drier dendrites of a higher snow to liquid ratio, I'm sure.

As of 12 am, we have light snow with 0.3" on the ground (all surfaces covered) and it's down to 33F.

Final pre-storm NBM snowmap. Impressive.

Got back to Metuchen around 10:50 pm from the RU-SHU hoops debacle and it was 34F with light snow and a dusting on the ground. Probably not much accumulation before 1-2 am, due to lighter precip. Hope we hit my prediction of 5.0" in Metuchen (4.5" forecast by the NWS).