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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    Well we had 1/4" about2 hours ago and then one last band just now. Holy crap, I stayed outside for almost all of this last band, as it was just stunningly gorgeous - not to get maudlin about it, but at my age you never know when it'll be your last storm, lol. Not the heaviest snow I've ever seen, visibility/intensity-wise, but some of the most beautiful, feathery, cotton-candiest dendrites I've ever seen, with most 1/2-3/4" across and some even up to 1" across and they nestled so pefectly together on top of the snow and whitened up every surface including all the trees (and paved surfaces, so be careful, although it only took 5 minutes to broom it away). We got another 1/2" over about 30 minutes, bringing my total today to 1.75" and my storm total to 5.75". A perfect ending to a great storm - and yes, this is the last of it for CNJ and should be over down the shore in the next 30-45 minutes and it might be even more snow down there, i.e., I could see some picking up 3/4" from this band. Seasonal total now up to 41.75".
  2. RU848789
    Snow is essentially over for now and "only" got 1.0" (thought I might get more), which brings us to 5" for the "event" (I think yesterday and today are being counted together). I wonder if the midday almost-late-Feb indirect sun is doing a bit of work on the falling snow, even at 30F. I would expect this 1" to be gone by the end of the afternoon if we get no more snow.
  3. RU848789
    That was a quick 3/4" in about 40-45 minutes (about 1" per hour rates), although it's now just snowing lightly; however the radar shows another band coming in which isn't as big or as heavy looking as this past one, but should be enough to get us to an inch. Could be treacherous on top of the ice, since people won't see the ice now when walking or driving and this fluff won't stop you from sliding - I know, I almost just fell.
  4. RU848789
    Snowing nicely now! Moderate snowfall with nice big dendrites! Should easily get at least an inch from this, judging by the radar.
  5. RU848789
    People need to be careful out there. I just woke up from a nap and missed the freezing rain (ZR). We have a decent glaze (guessing 0.05-0.10") on everything and it's slippery on any untreated surface. Luckily I had put salt down where I had shoveled.
  6. RU848789
    So, we got almost all sleet since this post around 1:00 pm, when I cleared the board (it had been 6 hours), and we got another 1/2" of sleet over the last 1.5 hours, so that makes 4.0" of snow/sleet, which includes about 1" of sleet, which is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow (if one uses a conservative 3" sleet to 1" liquid to 10" snow (some use 2.5:1), 1" sleet is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow). So I have a "snow equivalent" of 6.3", which I'm pretty happy with. I usually shovel in shots, but I was out today, so I did it all at once and it absolutely felt like ~6" of snow. Would've been much prettier to have had all snow, but plenty of models were showing sleet up through the 95 corridor, so can't complain. Would be nice to get another inch or two tonight/tomorrow morning. We'll see.
  7. RU848789
    Did some "forensics" and closely inspected the snow "column" and I have about 3" of snow underneath about 1/2" of the mixed rimed snow/sleet (was definitely looking like pure sleet in there and others have said we had sleet while I was gone). If that layer is ~3:1 like most sleet, then 1/2" of it is about 1.6" of 10:1 snow, meaning I would have had about 4.6" of snow if it had been all regular snow, which makes more sense. Right now it keeps going back and forth between pure sleet (I checked it closely and it's sleet) and giant aggregates of snowflakes - if we could get an hour of these aggregates, we'd accumulate pretty quickly, but I have no clue what we're going to get for the next 1-2 hours whlie we're still getting decent precip. I did predict "3.5" of snow, then 1" of sleet (3" snow equivalent) on Thursday, then 1.5" of snow on Friday over a long period" yesterday for my house, which could end up being close.
  8. RU848789
    Just drove back from Elizabeth to Metuchen with my son, after stopping for White Castle of course and it was snow until about Woodbridge, when I heard pinging on the windshield and I thought, no damn this can't be sleet already as the met on 1010 WINS said the sleet line was in Manasquan. Sounds like it was more like rimed snow (with supercooled liquid that crystallizes as ice on snowflakes, making them kind of large and hard) - didn't see the classic small discrete perfectly formed sleet pellets (usually somewhat cubic) that were clear ice and they definitely made noise like sleet - have only seen that a few times. From what I heard we had a fair amount of that rimed snow, but also sleet while I was gone. Had 2.25" at 10 am and now have 3.5" at noon, which is only 1.25" in the last 2 hours - if that had been all snow, it would have been 2-3"+, looking at the radar intensity. Oh well, still a cool storm with more to go. Currently a mix of sleet and snow.
  9. RU848789
    As of 10:00 am it's pouring heavy snow here with 2.3" OTG at 24F. Heading to Elizabeth for about 90 minutes... https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1362413637864878081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1362413637864878081%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fnwsspc%2Fstatus%2F1362413637864878081%3Fs%3D21
  10. RU848789
    As of 9:00 am, 1.7" OTG at 24F - about 0.8"/hr rates the last 30 min and it looks like the heavy stuff is about to come down...
  11. RU848789
    As of 8:30 am, 1.3" OTG at 23F - only about 0.6"/hr rates the last 30 min, but snow has picked up in the last 5 minutes here. Very pretty out there as I just went for a nice walk, but roads are obviously treacherous with temps so cold.
  12. RU848789
    As of 8 am, 1" OTG at 23F - got 1/2" the past 30 min for 1"/hr rates. If we can keep this up for 4-5 hours, I'll be happy.
  13. RU848789
    Started snowing lightly in Metuchen around 6:40 am and picked up around 7:00 am and we have 1/2" OTG as of 7:30 am. Moderate snow - would like to get into some of that heavier stuff. Temp really dropped from 27 to 23F with the snow sublimation cooling the column.
  14. RU848789
    Snow just started here in Metuchen around 6:40 am with a dusting on the ground already - looks like pixie dust out there. 27F. Lots of reports of people in the Philly area with 2" already, but I hear there's sleet in areas like Glassboro - don't want to see sleet...
  15. RU848789
    Slept 2 hours and woke up, lol. Mt. Holly cut back a little (maybe 1") in some places, but not all on both the map and in the warnings ("4-6 inches with locally higher amounts" now for most). On the flip side, Channel 7 increased their general snowfall for the entire area from 4-8" to 5-9". Sleet is still a significant risk to these snowfall amounts, especially south of 276/195 and SE of the NJ TPK from 195 up to about the Raritan. And of course the 6Z NAM looks great (6-10" for most over both parts), while the RGEM looks anemic (3-5") and the GFS ok (4-7"). In addition, radar is juicier than previously modeled and it looks like accumulating snow will arrive by 6-7 am for most of CNJ, which is an hour or two earlier than expected. Nap time for now.
  16. RU848789
    I don't like the decision, since much of the snow will be falling during the day, perhaps at a pretty good clip, making travel difficult as all snow will accumulate on any untreated surfaces with temps well below 32F for everyone. If it's a 50-50 call, I'd always err on the side of being conservative, probably from spending much of my career being involved in sitewide emergency management for a 5000 person site in Rahway NJ (Merck), as a side job, but an important one. Many people may dismiss this and if it overperforms even a little bit the afternoon rush could be a problem, especially.
  17. RU848789
    All but about 1" of this is on the ground by 7 pm tomorrow. Certainly good for my house and decent for most in the Philly-NYC area. That purple stripe could easily hit NYC too.
  18. RU848789
    Updated maps; watches everywhere except SENJ. Fun times ahead...
  19. RU848789
    33F with very light rain and the reported RH is 92% which gives a wet bulb temp of 31.5F, so freezing rain is not out of the question yet. I did just check and no signs of anything freezing yet.
  20. RU848789
    Almost every model is now showing no ZR for the 95 corridor and even nearby there and less to the NW, too. I'm guessing all the advisories might be cancelled and most of the ice storm warnings converted to advisories for up to 0.1" of ZR, except maybe for the Poconos/Sussex, where they might still get up to 1/4". And I would think everything will be ok just about everywhere by the morning rush hour.
  21. RU848789
    All of the precip in the map below is falling on surfaces that are below 32F and is shown as ZR on the Euro. This would be 0.2-0.4" of ZR for most along and SE of 95, which would be a pretty big deal. Temps except right at the immediate coast never get above 30F. The Euro is showing more QPF than most other models, but if it's right, this is a fairly nasty ZR event, especially with much of the precip falling at night.
  22. RU848789
    I think it would be more likely we might see 0.1-0.3" of QPF as sleet/freezing rain for most.
  23. RU848789
    Woke up at 7 am and took a final measurement of 2.75", as we only got 1/4" since 2:45 am, which looks about right, looking at the radar history since then. Very nice little storm. Brings my seasonal total to 36.0".
  24. RU848789
    Same here - 3" more puts me at 33.25", which is above normal for the season as we both get close to NY's seasonal avg of 28".
  25. RU848789
    As of 2:45 am, we have 2.5" OTG in Metuchen at 28F. Definitely lighter the last hour or so, although we have one more decent band coming through now and then it looks pretty light the rest of the way. We'll see about whether we made 3" in the morning, as it's sleepy time.
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