RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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As of 8:45 pm, we have 3/4" of snow and it's 31F and it just changed to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain a few minutes ago, but as I was typing this post, it changed back to the heaviest snow I've seen so far. No idea if it's just a few more minutes of this or not, but it's pretty wild out there, as it's also getting windy.
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As of 8:45 pm, we have 3/4" of snow and it's 31F and it just changed to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain a few minutes ago, but as I was typing this post, it changed back to the heaviest snow I've seen so far. No idea if it's just a few more minutes of this or not, but it's pretty wild out there, as it's also getting windy.
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We have 1/2" as of 8:00 pm with continuing light to moderate snow, but it's now 31F and the radar shows the mix line almost at the Raritan, about 5-10 miles from me, so maybe another 30-60 minutes of snow? Very slick out there, as all surfaces are covered, given how cold the ground was. I imagine there could be some accidents out there if people weren't expecting any snow at all.
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We have 1/2" as of 8:00 pm with continuing light to moderate snow, but it's now 31F and the radar shows the mix line almost at the Raritan, about 5-10 miles from me, so maybe another 30-60 minutes of snow? Very slick out there, as all surfaces are covered, given how cold the ground was. I imagine there could be some accidents out there if people weren't expecting any snow at all.
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Up to 3/8" at 7:30 pm, but up to 29F with dual-pol showing the mix line about 20 miles from me, but moving slowly...
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As of 7 pm, we have a whole 1/4" of snow and intensity has increased to moderate - may get the 1" of snow before the changeover, as it's still 28F and above freezing temps and sleet still look to be 20 miles SE of me. Anyone know what happened to the old Sacrus tracking images thread? Used to love that thing...
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As of 7 pm, we have a whole 1/4" of snow and intensity has increased to moderate - may get the 1" of snow before the changeover, as it's still 28F and above freezing temps and sleet still look to be 20 miles SE of me.
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We officially have a whole dusting here in Metuchen! Snow falling almost moderately. Temp up to 28F, but temps above freezing just about 20 miles SE of here.
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Light snow started here around 5:55 pm. 27F. Woohoo! I'm going with a prediction of 1", as the storm overperforms hugely for Metuchen, lol. It's still only 30F 15 miles SE of me, but above freezing 20 miles SE of me...
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Light snow has commenced! Woohoo! 27F. Guessing the storm overperforms hugely for Metuchen and we get 1" vs. the 1/2" predicted for me, lol...
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Amazing how the Euro went from snowmageddon to nosnowatall in one model run, lol
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Walt - adding to the avalanche of support for your threads/posts. It's a weather forum and anyone who knows even a smidgen about the weather understands the huge uncertainty inherent in numerical weather predictions, so we all know that 7 days or even 3 days out, a forecast can go awry either providing more or less snow than originally forecast. It's the nature of the beast. But most of us love the tracking as much as the actual snow and your insights on tracking these systems are invaluable, given your incredible expertise. So please keep posting away, thanks!!
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Did you play a round of disc golf in the park? Nice course...
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That was from Monday evening - looking at something I saw elsewhere, there was a flight tonight which would not have had data going into tonight's 0Z models, which initialize at 7 pm EST.
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The huge variance between Op and ensemble runs is a big red flag at this point, especially since it's certainly enhanced by sparse data on the initial conditions for the shortwave still out in the Pacific, as there are no more important deterministic, non-linear numerical model inputs than initial conditions, so until that baby is well sampled (including the weather flight data tonight and relevant data from being over land early this morning), we're flying partially blind, which is why I don't live and die with model outputs until we have those initial conditions nailed down much better, which will likely be by 12Z today The old modeling adage of "garbage in, garbage out" may sound trite, but it's quite relevant here.
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A few snow pics, including nighttime snow, a shot of the pond across the street, our house showing my fine shoveling (and the town already having plowed our street by 7 am), and the snow angel I made.
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Thought the NWS and other forecasts did well - I'm sure there were some misses, but no significant busts I've seen. Not worth pasting the full list yet, IMO, as it's very preliminary, but it looks like a fairly uniform 4-6" in most of SNJ/CNJ/NNJ, except for Sussex/Warren/Morris, which were more like 2-4", as expected, and most of E PA was in the 3-5" range, except the Poconos/Lehigh Valley, which were more like 2-3". NYC/LI/CT were more like 5-8" with the winner looking like LGA Airport at 8.4" (still snowing on E LI /CT though). https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX
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And finally, as of 7:15 am, when the snow had been reduced to flurries, I got a final measurement of 5.75", which outperformed nearly every prediction out there. Just finished shoveling and then a long JebWalk and finally had to make a snow angel - snow was fairly light and fluffy, but with just enough moisture to make decent snowballs. Couldn't have asked for a much better storm out of this setup.
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Holy crap it poured snow most of the last hour, so as of 6:00 am, we're up to 5.0" of snow OTG, meaning we got 1.5" of snow in the past hour! Actually exceeded my prediction of 4.75", which I thought was a bit too optimistic, as the NWS had me for 4.2". We just backed off to moderate snow and that might have been the last of the heavy snow bands for us. Still 27F.
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As of 5:00 am, we're up to 3.5", but wth only 3/4" the last hour; 27F still. Snowing moderately to heavily with larger flakes again. Should at least get to 4", but not sure about my 4.75" prediction. Great storm so far!
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As of 4:00 am we have 2.75" OTG (1.5" last hour) and it's 27F. Snow just went from heavy back to moderate with smaller flakes - hopefully just a lull.
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Pouring legitimately heavy snow right now with visibility definitely <1/4 mile - probably about 3/16 of a mile...
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Just took a nice Jebwalk - spectacular out thre folks! As of 3:00 am here in Metuchen we have 1.25" OTG for 1" the past hour and it's snowing somewhere between moderately and heavily with gorgeous mostly large (1/2" to 1" across) fluffy dendrites. If we can keep this up for aonther 4-5 hours, we'll make my 4.75" prediction.
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As of 2:00 am, measured 1/4" on the ground (the comment above was eyeballed). Temp dropped from 31 to 28F over the last 20 minutes with the snow falling and cooling the column. Snow is fairly dry and is a mix of small and medium dendrites (plates mostly).
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Quickly up to moderate snow here now and a solid 1/4" on the ground. Gonna be a fun night, especially since I bought a new 5000 lumens portable spotlight, which I put in the backyard aimed kind of at our house and it's working great for me to see the falling snowflakes from my recliner, instead of having to get up and look at the snow falling in the street lights - only took me 29 years to get one, lol.
