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RU848789

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  1. RU848789
    Walt - thanks and a question. Can you highlight the differences between the "ensemble" river forecasts and what I guess I'd call the "regular" river flooding forecasts from the NWS (which are both under the "rivers and lakes" tab on the NWS page)? What is the ensemble of? Mostly curious why the ensemble forecast has the Passaic at risk of major flooding, while the regular forecast only has that in moderate flooding, as per below and in general the ensemble forecasts are much more serious. Is one or the other more accurate?
  2. RU848789
    Moderate snowfall here - might freshen up our huge snowpack, lol (we still have maybe 1/2"-1" of dense slush on the ground, as the rain didn't wash it all away). More seriously, though, can't see these snow showers amounting to anything of consequence with temps in the 35-37F range. Pretty to watch, though.
  3. RU848789
    Surprised you didn't get something like our 2" in Metuchen, although I recall seeing the radar indicating it changed to rain to my east earlier than here. Could being ~8 miles ENE and an earlier changeover and a little elevation (my house is at 110') make that difference?
  4. RU848789
    Central Park with only 0.2"? Does anyone on this board live anywhere near there to verify that? Thought I saw reports of it snowing there much of the day and people seeing some accumulation. I get the UHI, but that's crazy.
  5. RU848789
    Nice!!
  6. RU848789
    They brined the county/state roads in town, which were at least better than the residential roads, which they never brine, but the town does an amazing job with plowing when we have a decent snowfall - pretty much every residential road gets plowed within 6 hours of precip ending. Also, our town is nearly flat with minimal hills so snow covered residential roads isn't that big of a deal compared to a hilly area, like Wantage.
  7. RU848789
    So, as of 7:00 pm we had officially changed to rain and the temp was up to 34F and my last measurement was 2.0" on the nose, which was my exact guesstimate for the storm (even broken clocks, lol). The last hour or two the snow was quite wet, but at least it stayed snow. The interesting thing was that I went out for a quick spin around 6:35 pm to see the roads and pick up takeout (Portuguese BBQ, yum) and the residential streets in Metuchen were all fully snow covered and treacherous, while the county/state type roads (531/501 and 27) were partially covered/slushy and somewhat slick, and the major roads like 1 and 287 were just wet. Many local reports in the area of accidents, as I'm guessing people maybe forgot how to drive in the snow. Also, around 6:50 pm I noticed it started sounding like rain on my windshield even though it was still snowing and 10 minutes later it was all rain. Oh well. But I'm ecstatic we even got 2" when so many, including the NWS, were predicting little to no snow for the 95 corridor, including in our area. Hope there's some left tomorrow (I think there will be).
  8. RU848789
    Been snowing moderately for the last hour at 33F and we only got another 1/4", which I think means we had some compaction as the snow is fairly wet, so we're up to 1.75" right now and my 2" prediction looks very doable.
  9. RU848789
    Still snowing moderately as of 5:30 pm and we're up to 1.5" at a steady 33F. Sleet and rain still look like they're only ~5 miles S and SE of us.
  10. RU848789
    It'll get better (I think) - you just need more intensity...
  11. RU848789
    Talk about miracles, according to the dual-pol, the sleet line has collapsed to our SW below the Raritan, while the rain/snow line has stalled about 5 miles to our SE. Still snowing with no idea for how much longer, but loving it!
  12. RU848789
    As of 5:00 pm, we have 1.25" at 33F and we've seen a miracle, lol, as the mix/sleet line stalled literally 1-2 miles south of us and it's still snowing moderately here, but I have to think that's almost over... hey @Allsnow- you still snowing too?
  13. RU848789
    Looks like that mixing line has stalled just to our south (like maybe 2-3 miles south) for now; still snowing moderately here at 33F.
  14. RU848789
    Here's a pic just b4 sunset... gorgeous out there - you can see the little kids sledding across the street in the distance. Not much of a hill, but was great fun when our son and his friends were under about 9 or 10.
  15. RU848789
    As of 4:30 pm, 33F and snowing moderately to heavily at times with 1" on the ground and 1/2-3/4" on paved surfaces. However, reports of sleet in NB, so we might not get much more We'll see, since I'll always remember 3/1/19, when the sleet line stopped at the Raritan for hours, giving us ~5" of snow and 1-2" of snow/sleet then rain in NB - but this line doesn't look like it's stopping, lol.
  16. RU848789
    No!!!!!!!!!!! Only 6 miles SW of me...
  17. RU848789
    Pouring snow here - time for a walk...
  18. RU848789
    Snowing moderately to heavily at times here and the temp has dropped to 33F. We have 1/2" of snow on the board (in the shade) and on the grass with 1/4" on top of the cars and the driveway in the front yard (which gets indirect sunlight, which won't be an issue shortly); road in front of our house now covered too. Maybe another hour of snow before either the rain from our SE or the sleet from our SW get here.
  19. RU848789
    Looks like sleet line may have slowed down. Would be awesome if we had somewhat of a repeat of two storms in early March 2019, when the Raritan was the dividing line for hours between sleet/rain and snow to the north (we got 4-5" for each storm).
  20. RU848789
    Yikes!
  21. RU848789
    Hoping to get to my 2" prediction for our little town - pretty sure we'll get to 1", but not sure the sleet will hold off long enough for 2". We'll see...
  22. RU848789
    Snowing moderately now, with a solid 1/4" coating (noteworthy after last winter, lol) on almost all surfaces: driveway is covered but somewhat busy street in front of our house is patchily (if that's a word) covered. Still 34F. It is pretty...
  23. RU848789
    Anywhere in particular or did you just want to tell us about your dream last night?
  24. RU848789
    Snow started here in Metuchen (we're at 34/30F) around 1:15 pm and we have a nice dusting now. Looks like some heavier stuff coming and I haven't been in the loop as I was out for the last 5 hours, but is that sleet hitting the Philly area now?
  25. RU848789
    Speaking of uncertainty, look at the 12Z runs today so far. Just looking at Edison, the GFS has 1.8", the CMC has 6.7", the RGEM has 1.8" and the NAM has 4.6". Sure Holmdel or South Brunswick have generally less than 1" from those models, but parts of the 95 corridor (including NB to NYC) have similar modeled snowfalls as Edison. If that's not huge uncertainty, I don't know what is. Will the large snowfall amounts in the snowier models verify? Likely not, which is why the NWS and others have ~1" to 1-2" accumulations NE of NB along 95, but one has to acknowledge the uncertainty in the models and the forecasts made at least in part from these models.
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