RU848789

Don't think I've ever missed any snow at any time of the day or night in at least 35 years, lol.

Euro jogs south a bit with the snow, but doesn't show much sleet (snow depth actually shows less than snowfall, which makes no sense).

Keep in mind (something I discuss in any setup where there could be sleet) there's quite a potential sleet signature, as per the GFS, especially, which is showing >6"+ of "10:1 ratio snow" most of which is really likely to be 3:1 ratio sleet, verbatim, looking at the Tidbits snowfall map. The Tidbits map counts all of the sleet as 10:1 snow, while the Tidbits and Pivotal snow depth maps seem like they are doing some combo of 10:1 snow and maybe 3-5:1 sleet, depending on location. It's impossible to tell exactly, which is why I often prefer the Tidbits snow/sleet map, all at 10:1, so I at least know one important thing and that is the mass of frozen precip (not including freezing rain) - as mass is a very important emergency planning number, as snow removal and driving (apart from visibility) impacts are most closely related to frozen mass, not depth. The NAM shows similar outcomes for the model outputs fro Pivotal and TT with regard to sleet/snow. I wish they would publish separate sleet maps (including the assumed ratio).

Don't think I posted in this thread earlier, but after thinking the snow was over around 5 pm with 3.25" OTG, it just kept snowing on and off, lightly, through much of the evening and we got another 1/4" of snow, for a total of 3.5" and 3.0-3.6" amounts were recorded very near to me (Parlin, Hopelawn, Carteret, South Plainfield, etc. (and most of these were from around 4-5 pm, before the last 1/4" fell). Nice storm, reasonably well forecast by the NWS with 1-3" amounts for most of SEPA/SNJ (S of 276/195) and 2-4" amounts for most of PA/NJ N of that line up to 78 (except only 1-2" at the coast) and 3-6" amounts for NWNJ and the Lehigh Valley (which were definitely well under-forecast). NYC/NENJ got 2-3" for the most part and LI got 3-5" (also under-forecast). 3.5" brings our seasonal total up to 18.75". NWS map of reports is below, but not a final map yet, as there are many incomplete reports in there and in the PNS lists. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=39.58&lon=-74.98&hr=24

Well, it just kept snowing on and off, lightly, through much of the evening and we got another 1/4" of snow, for a total of 3.5" and 3.0-3.6" amounts were recorded very near to me (Parlin, Hopelawn, Carteret, South Plainfield, etc. (and most of these were from around 4-5 pm, before the last 1/4" fell). Nice storm, reasonably well forecast by the NWS with 1-3" amounts for most of SEPA/SNJ (S of 276/195) and 2-4" amounts for most of PA/NJ N of that line up to 78 (except only 1-2" at the coast) and 3-6" amounts for NWNJ and the Lehigh Valley (which were definitely well under-forecast). NYC/NENJ got 2-3" for the most part and LI got 3-5" (also under-forecast). 3.5" brings our seasonal total up to 18.75". NWS map of reports is below, but not a final map yet, as there are many incomplete reports in there and in the PNS lists. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=39.58&lon=-74.98&hr=24

Not sure if you saw my recent post on Center City - haven't seen any reports from there, but 1-3" reports from Philly outside of CC - could see the UHI effect leading to CC being on the low side. Any intel?

Any reports from Center City Philly? Saw the outer parts of Philly got 1-3", but the airport only had 0.4", so wondering if that was just a measurement issue or was there really less in the most urban part of Philly. TIA. ...Philadelphia County... Chestnut Hill 3.2 in 0345 PM 02/13 Public Manayunk 2.8 in 0430 PM 02/13 Public Shawmont 2.0 in 1140 AM 02/13 Public Fox Chase 1.3 in 0800 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter Philadelphia International 0.4 in 0725 PM 02/13 ASOS

Always prefer night time snow, so there's much less chance of melting and you can see the snow all night if you just don't waste time sleeping. Plus, I really enjoy the late night Jeb-walks when there's not another soul in the world to disturb the perfect peace of a silent snowfall.

Well it's been snowing fairly lightly and continuously since 11 am and it seems like the snowfall rate has been roughly equal to the melting rate (I'm guessing we've had about 0.1-0.2" snow per hour and that's the likely melting rate), so I'm going to stick with the 3.25" I measured at 11 am. It also hasn't wavered from 32F since 9 am. With the sun much lower in the sky now, it's likely that any additional snow will accumulate, but the storm's precip looks to be close to over, except for the coast and LI. If this is the last of it, that brings our seasonal total up to 18.5", which is very c;lose to normal for this point in the season.

Where's "here?"

As of 11:00 am, we're up to 3.25" with 1/4" the last hour; my driveway/sidewalk still has about 1/2" of snow in most spots from the earlier band, although that will melt with lighter rates and the indirect sun. Still 32F.

As of 10:00 am, we hit 3.0", with 0.4" the last hour and most of that in the last 20 minutes with the moderate band we're under. My driveway and sidewalks are getting snow-covered again after shoveling. Still 32F

Radar really blowing up now in CNJ - those NWS guys know what they're doing, lol - this could easily put down another 1/2"-1" if it holds together - beautiful big dendrites fallkng moderately right now.

As of 9:00 am, we have 2.6" of snow (only 1/10th of an inch the last hour) and I just cleared the snowboard (every 6 hours), so let's see if we get much more or not. I'm guessing another 1/2" given that we have some snow bands incoming from the SW. It's 32F here and will stay around 32F for the next several hours before dropping into the 20s this evening. Just shoveled as we have enough on the driveway/sidewalks that won't melt before this evening and I don't want frozen slush for the next 2 days. Also, the NWS update just said it looks like accumulating snow in NWNJ (esp Warren/Sussex) and the Lehigh Valley, which overperformed with 3-5" of snow, so far, is over, but that they're seeing snow bands blossoming over SWNJ/SEPA (clear on the radar), which should impact the 95 corridor and much of SNJ and the coast for the next several hours with another inch or so possible, although that snow will very likely only accumulate on colder surfaces now that the sun is up and stronger and temps are at or slightly above 32F. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 912 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... There was a bit of a lull in the snowfall rates this morning. However, another band of snow was beginning to develop and advect northeastward along the Interstate 95 Corridor and vicinity around 9:00 AM. That should continue to be the trend during the balance of the morning with the band drifting eastward and off the coast late this afternoon. With temperatures at or just above freezing, additional snowfall amounts in those area should be no more than an inch or two. Meanwhile, for the areas to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor where the overnight snow over-performed, the current trends suggest little additional snow accumulation, with the snow mostly coming to an end by afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisories will be left in place and may need to be adjusted around midday.

As of 8:00 am we're up to 2.25" OTG with 1/2" the last hour. 31F. Here's a pretty picture... worth a walk outside y'all. Also, you can see from the pic that the lightly traveled road across the street is still fully snow-covered, while the busier street right in front of our house is only partly slush-covered, as traffic has warmed things up a bit and melted some of the snow.

Really nice band just popped up for Southern Somerset through most of Middlesex/Union - coming down nicely now with decent sized dendrites.

As of 7:00 am, up to 1.75" with fairly light intensity most of the last hour, but picking back up again now. Temp down to 31F. HRRR shows another inch or so for most through about noon, but at fairly light rates of 1/4" per hour, I doubt we'll see that much more accumulate with the indirect sunlight becoming more of an issue for melting by 9-10 am. Guessing we'll end up with 2-2.5" here.

As of 6:00 am, we're up to 1.50" OTG, as intensity as definitely lighter the last hour (1/4" fell). Intensity picked back up the last 10 minutes and flakes are now more dendritic/drier, presumably due to better growth up in the DGZ and a colder column. 32F here.

As of 5:00 am, we're up to 1.25" OTG, as intensity was a bit less the last 20 minutes or so. Temp down to 32F, so melting should no longer be an issue, at least not until 9-10 am when the sun is up in the sky a bit. Very pretty out there and it's great snowball snow...

Woke up at 3:30 am and it was snowing moderately with a dusting on the colder surfaces; went outside at 4:30 am and it's still snowing moderately (close to heavily) and we have 1.0" on the ground, including 1/4-1/2" on paved surfaces, already - as expected, the snowfall rate is greater than the melting rate and now that we have a snow foothold on paved surfaces, the rest of the falling snow should accumulate on those surfaces, as it's down to 33F. The snow is kind of like icy granules in a water ice. Looks like 2-3" should verify easily if this kind of rate keeps up.

Agree with everything, except for one caveat. Remember, if we get decent rates before 8 am, which is forecast, we'll get some accumulation on untreated paved surfaces and once snow gains a foothold on the paved surface, subsequent snow is falling on high albedo snow at 32F, where it will accumulate much easier than on actual blacktop.

Nice to see the first run in 3 days of the UK showing a decent snowfall. Man has that model just fallen off the wagon or what? I could definitely see the NBM being the forecast after looking at the models (assuming the Euro doesn't do something unexpected - I'd love to see ~2" along the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC.

The 12km and 3km NAMs have been wildly divergent in their snowfall maps for a couple of days. Seems like the 12km is having trouble resolving convection at its larger grid scale or at least I hope so - will take the 3km please.

Thought the Channel 7 (Lee Goldberg/Jeff Smith) map was pretty good, although several of the 18Z models look even a bit snowier than that. Will be interesting to see if 18Z was a blip or a trend. Will start to see shortly, I guess. Would be nice to get an overperformer for a change.

12Z suite (every model; Euro still to come) has been horrible for snow for the big cities/95 corridor: at best maybe an inch in some snow showers (and 1-2" at the coast) and at worst nada, with that inch just along the coast and maybe not even there. NBM seems to capture this well...