RU848789

Agree with the intent of your post, but for the record Tomer had retweeted that one, but for some reason that part isn't included in the link that I posted, probably because posting Twitter links that actually embed properly is a black box, lol. https://x.com/burgwx

I assume this is pretty official. 897 mbar. https://x.com/WxTca/status/1843424669959176251

Question for folks/mets who know the model data initialization process. The 18Z model runs (at least GFS, NAM and ICON), which I always thought initialized at 18Z (or 2 pm EDT now) with data from the 18Z time point or at least not much earlier than that, all show the t=0 point with Milton at about 970-980 mbar, when Milton had a pressure of 925 mbar at 12:00 pm EDT today...and it was even as low as 945 mbar at 8 am EDT. Am I missing something?

Tied for 6th strongest, but that's quibbling.

180 mph, 905 mbar... BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

IMO, people on the central Florida Gulf coast (and even inland a ways from there) should be seriously considering evacuating or at least have a plan to evacuate once Milton's track is nailed down better in the next day or two, given that the center of the forecast track brings a 115-120 mph hurricane directly over Tampa on Wednesday late afternoon/early evening (although the track cone goes from the Big Bend to Marco Island, so a Tampa landfall is not a given, but preparing for a pretty credible worst case is not a bad thing to do). If we have a major hurricane hitting Tampa, the impacts are likely to be substantial to catastrophic for hundreds of thousands of people. For people unaware of Tampa's history with hurricanes, Tampa hasn’t seen a direct hit from a major hurricane since 1921 (and only one other time in recorded history in 1848), when the population was tiny, but for those storms the damage was catastrophic from both the winds and the storm surge. Even Helene, which missed Tampa by ~100 miles (at its closest) still caused the worst storm surge (~7 ft) since the 1921 hurricane, which had ~10’ of surge and the 1841 storm, which was likely a tad weaker than Helene, had an estimated 15’ of surge; and even a glancing blow from Helene killed 11 people in Tampa. 10-15 feet or more of surge and Cat 3 winds are almost unimaginable for modern day Tampa Metro, which now has 3.2MM people vs. ~100K in 1921 and a few thousand in 1848. Tampa's hurricane history is detailed in the link below. And if the forecast storm track and intensity verify, Milton would pass near or over Orlando, too, as a Cat 1/2 hurricane. Talk about a horrific track for Florida. https://www.miamiherald.com/.../hur.../article293362924.html

Just heard from my cousin that she and her family in Asheville are ok (we had all obviously been worried) - took them until now to get to a town that had some power and a working cell tower. Crazy situation, as folks here know.

We need a "love" emoji - so happy to hear this!

Congrats on politicizing this tragic situation.

Looks like it's not possible anymore (it used to be). As one poster in that thread said, it looks like MarkyMark and MuskyMusk are still at each other's throats and we all are collateral damage, lol.

Thanks for sharing your insights and observations/videos/pics - fantastic stuff. And thanks, also, for showing decency and humanity when interacting with people whose lives and livelihoods are at risk and sometimes totally destroyed and not treating them like a photo op. Sad that not all chasers take that approach.

Thought I tried that before and it didn't work; have the same issue on FB, but not two message boards I post to. Trying it below and as I'm pasting the two URL versions, I see exactly what you said about the tweet being visible in the draft post. Edit: it worked! Thanks so much - I had googled how to do this and didn't really get a lot of help. However, that approach doesn't work on Facebook, still - any idea how to embed tweets in FB? Thanks. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1839785589241258454?s=46&t=Nn9Cx92_8118fPdhHPdJHw

Landfall... Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1120 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HELENE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... Based on NWS Doppler radar data, the eye of Helene has made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region at about 11:10 PM EDT (0310 UTC) just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River. This is about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry, Florida. Based on data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, the maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph (225 km/h) and the minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). SUMMARY OF 1110 PM EDT...0310 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 83.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

29.9N 83.9W is just a few miles SW of the Big Bend Wildlife Mgmt area, which is SW of Perry...

Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HURRICANE HELENE VERY CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...ACCOMPANIED BY A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 83.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Cantore just said between Steinhatchee and Fish Creek, which is due south of Perry. We'll see soon...

Hey - just curious how you get the Twitter post to embed on this site? Pasting the URL below, hasn't been working for me. TIA. https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1839481161082392823?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1839481161082392823|twgr^d62ae3ef18d077e4023272872f8c21d9d1630f69|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fericfisher%2Fstatus%2F1839481161082392823

This is what the Skyway Bridge in Tampa looked like 5 hours ago right before it was closed - imagine being on that one. Tampa reportedly has broken the storm surge record set with Idalia, too. And Tampa isn't even that close to the storm. And Savannah, GA just had a tornado, hundreds of miles from Helene. A long night and day ahead... https://fxtwitter.com/FHPTampa/status/1839398172684370378 https://x.com/i/status/1839398172684370378 edit: for some reason twitter videos/links aren't pasting as actual embedded videos - anyone know why? Works ok on 2 other forums I post to...

Cat 3... Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

I'm talking about landfall, which the vast majority are most interested in.

It's shifted east 15-20 miles...

NHC not backing down on the Cat 4 forecast and hasn't really changed the projected track either, with landfall still likely between Apalachicola and Alligator Island tomorrow evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Helene is obviously going to be devastating for the FL coast and just inland with high winds and surge and downed trees/power outages, but the untold story of this storm, when all is said and done, might be the torrential flooding, especially well inland in GA/AL/SC/TN/NC/VA/KY and particularly for the Apps.

I wish these model plots would include the Rosetta Stone translator for the model names relative to their common names, lol...

Thankfully, for us, the models sucked terribly for this "event." Our forecast in OCNJ on Friday was for a nice Sat-Mon with rain moving in Tuesday, putting down 2-4", depending on the model. Then the start time kept getting pushed back and Tuesday turned out warm and dry, albeit mostly cloudy and we had the same thing today. Forecast was still calling for 1/2-1" tonight into Thursday, as of the early afternoon, but the latest update has decreased this to about 1/4". I know the region needs rain, but our vacation didn't, lol. And our weather here looks pretty good through at least mid next week; later next week could be pretty wet, but that's a long way off...