RU848789

18" here

6Z 12 km NAM and GFS, showing less snow/more sleet and/or rain for coastal sections and even parts of 95 have to be a little unsettling after such nice model consensus at 0Z. The fact that the 6Z NAM doesn't show nearly as much of this, makes me want to discount the 12 km NAM to some extent and I assume the NWS saw the NAMs before issuing their packages. Also, the other 6Z guidance doesn't snow this level of mixing/changeover, but still...

Well, we did get another 1/4" with the last hour of light snow, so final tally (snow really looks to be over now) is 4.5".

After a little nap, just shoveled during the last throes of the storm, which was nice. Final tally (still snowing lightly, but doubt we'll get much more) was 4.25" here in Metuchen vs. the NWS 1-3" forecast with no advisory - big difference north of the Raritan vs. south of the Raritan, where it sounds like it was mostly/all sleet. 31F still. This brings me to 18" for the season and with another 6" tomorrow, I'd be up around 24", which isn't far from normal. Could still make it with one more snowfall...

Intensity definitely let up some the last hour. Have 3.5" as of 5 am - could also have been some compaction, as this is heavy, wet snow (maybe 8:1 ratio if I had to guess). One more good band to rotate through, so maybe we get to 4" . Still 31F.

3.25" as of 4:00 am, so 1" per hour rates the last 30 minutes, as the intensity has let up some; still snowing moderately, but it's starting to look like the back edge of the heavier precip may only be 1-2 hours away - would love to get to 5", but this storm has already overperformed for me.

2.75" as of 3:30 pm, so 1.5" per hour rates for the last 30 minutes, and it's still snowing moderately to heavily, plus it looks like the sleet line went as far north as the Raritan and has since sunk back southward by several miles, so hopefully I'm in the clear. 31F still

Thanks, was kind of hoping for that scenario, since the sleet line appears to have halted at the Raritan and is sagging back SE-ward in Mercer/Somerset. Jackpot has a nice sound to it, lol...

Still snowing heavily here in Metuchen with 1" falling in the last 40 minutes, as we're up to 2" now, as of 3:00 am. Snow is piling up. Temp has dropped to 31F. My only worry is that it looks like that sleet line has crept back up almost to the Raritan, maybe 5 miles south of me. If it stays snow, we could get 5". I'll say it again - it's absolutely gorgeous out there.

Euro now in line with the rest of the models, showing 6-8" of additional snow (after today's 3-6" for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC metro) for the 95 corridor. Sweet. Winter storm watches looking probable to me. Hopefully, no last minute bad surprises...

Legitimate heavy snow now under 35-40 dBZ echoes with 1/4 mile visibility and >1" per hour rates over the last 15 minutes. Went from 1/2" total to 1" total in the last 20 minutes or so. If this stays snow, looking at the radar, we'll easily make 3". As I said earlier today, they really ought to split Middlesex into 2 zones with the northern zone from about North Brunswick to Perth Amboy - that section could've been under an advisory too and it fits nicely between SI and Somerset County. Still 32F

All snow as of about 1:40 am here in Metuchen (Edison) - coming down moderately - looks like some heavy stuff is incoming - hoping it stays as snow and doesn't transition back to sleet - anyone know if that approaching line (from the south) of 35-40 dBZ stuff is snow or sleet? Guess I'll find out in about 10 minutes. We had 1/4" of sleet (at 3-4:1 sleet to snow, that's about 0.075-0.10" LE) and have about 1/4" of snow on top of that already. Should pile up quickly if it stays all snow. 32F still. Beautiful out there.

About 50-50 snow/sleet now. Hoping we get mostly snow, but I'll take sleet over rain any day.

After about 15 minutes of sprinkles, around midnight it changed to sleet and it sleeted lightly for about 20 minutes and has been sleeting moderately since then and we have already have a treacherous coating of sleet on all paved surfaces. It's 32F here in Metuchen.

surface looks the same wrt/snow and temps, but 850s were warmer on 12Z vs. last night, not colder...

I could easily see this being accumulating snow, even with surface temps at 33-34F, given fairly good growth and high precip rates and not enough depth of a surface warm layer to melt the flakes - could be pretty wet and agglomerated by the time they hit the surface (could be some of those massive agglomerates in a setup like this, which can happen with nice large dendritic source flakes coulpled with late partial melting and agglomeration of many flakes near the surface) for folks who are on the borderling, like places along 95 and the coast from NYC on NE-ward, including LI. Same concern here there won't be enough precip for CNJ, but hoping I'm far enough NE to at least get some...

Really odd observation. Radar showed us under 20 DBZ echoes for most of the last 30 min and almost no snow fell - just have a dusting here. Anyone else see that in the Edison area?

No thread for the Sat event, so I'll post here, since it seems more active... NWS-NYC cut snowfall amounts for most of their area for Saturday and NWS-Philly finally posted a map for Saturday. Fairly conservative, but not unexpected with models showing crazy ranges of potential snowfall (from near nada to 6" or more). Just started snowing here...

Yes, but on some earlier storms it was lonely in those BM tracks; this time, it's aligned reasonably well with the other models - in fact the model spread right now is smaller than I would expect - sure the outcomes are different, but that's only because the gradient is going to be a knife's edge one from rain to snow, which is not unusual in these parts.

Just posted this in the Feb thread - guess it makes sense here...

This is nice... This is nicer, but it's the FV3... And this isn't bad, although further SE would be nice for many of us - but 4+ days out, it's great to see the potential...

Yep - sign me up. Most of this also falls between 1 am and 10 am on Friday, so it has a good chance of accumulating with temps generally below 32F until at least mid-morning for most, and with most of the snow falling before the sun is too high up in the sky. Yes, sun angle is now an issue, for borderline temps and light snowfall rates (even moderate rates between 10 am and 2 pm).

4-6" Wilmington-New Brunswick and 6-8" New Brunswick through NYC and beyond (and a bit more NE of NYC in New England) on the Euro, as modeled. Between that and 6-10" on the CMC and 3-5" on the GFS-FV3, we have a legitimate snowstorm threat for Sunday night into Monday. Sure it's still 5+ days out, but it's better than tracking warm rain.

I am a USMNT fan and have been since the late 80s. Used to go to occasional RU soccer matches, also, especially when Lalas was roaming the box and putting in headers. Lost the NCAA final to UCLA on PKs (worst OT in all of sports) in 1990. Also go to occasional women's games and play every Sunday for 2 hours with a bunch of middle aged guys.

We don't have to have a great "pattern" to get a significant snowstorm, even in March. Just makes it a bit more likely.