RU848789

Yeah, a sample size of 2 is nowhere near large enough to make general statements about JFK getting more than LGA in early season systems. Also, for Nov-2012, at least in NJ, the snnowfall amounts were mostly related to precip rates, given marginal boundary layer temps, which is why eastern NJ (closer to the low and with more precip) got a lot more than western NJ and why parts of Monmouth/Ocean got the most (12" or more vs. 4-6" in along 95 and much less NW of there, as per the map). Also, for that storm, Bayside, close to LGA, got 7.9" and CPK got 4.7", so it's not like your 8" was much of an outlier - if I had to guess, southern locations in NYC probably did just a little better than northern locations for the same reason as in NJ - getting higher precip rates and nothing to do with temps. https://www.climatecentral.org/news/snowstorm-strikes-northeast-just-one-week-after-hurricane-sandy-15217

I don't doubt that there have been probably many occasions where JFK does better than LGA in Nov, but your post implied that that is a general case, which would surprise me - do the long terms snowfall amounts for each reflect JFK doing better, on average, in Nov than LGA?

Doesn't make sense to me - I would think the much warmer ocean, relatively speaking, in Nov would impact early season snowfalls near the water much more than it would in Match, when the ocean is at its coldest.

Sounds about right. We got 6.0" in Metuchen, which is only a few miles S or SW of you guys. The "miracle" last night was how we barely mixed at all with sleet, yet areas only 10 or so miles S did and areas well to our NE, like LI and the southern NYC boroughs did, extensively. That line kept progressing towards us, mixed briefly a couple of times, but then would collapse back down south of the Raritan. Somewhat simillar to Saturday morning, when the sleet line parked right along or just south of the Raritan and we got 4.5" while folks in NB/EB got 1-2" of mostly sleet. Up to 24" for this winter.

Looks like I missed posting my 2 am measurement of 5.75". After that, I dozed off for a bit and judging by the radar, we had one last band come through around 3:30 am and I just measured at 4 am and we have 6.0" on the nose - given the fairly heavy, wet nature of the snow, based on past history, I'm guessing it'll compact about 5-10% before sunrise (which is why I always like to measure close to the end of the event). Temp is still 32F. Looks like this one is over. Now I need some real sleep.

Just got back in again from another walk around. As of 1:15 am we're up to 5.25", as I think we're getting a little compaction from the heavy wet snow (expected to have at least 5.5" then, given rates). Probably another hour of snow...

So, just got in from shoveling in the midst of moderate to heavy snow. As of 12 am we have 4.5" of new snow, so 0.75" over the last hour. The sleet made 2 more runs at us, getting as far north as the Raritan, but apart from 5-10 minutes of mixing about an hour ago, it keeps collapsing back to our south (thank you rates). Fluctuating between 31 and 32F. Pouring snow again, since I came inside. I love shoveling in the absolute dead of night with heavy snow falling. It's almost incomprehensibly beautiful out there right now, especially with the light rain and then wet snow, combined with little wind collaborating to allow everything stick to the trees. If you haven't yet, get outside and go for a walk. 

We really lucked out yesterday and tonight. Assuming no more sleet, I think we make it to 6" pretty easily and maybe 7" if we get any backbuilding or pivoting as the low goes by (it's off of Cape May now. Feel bad, though, for all the folks SE of 95 in SE PA/SNJ, who have mostly gotten 1-3" due to mixing and had their warnings downgraded to advisories, as per below. National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1242 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Low pressure was centered about 100 miles off Cape May around midnight. The low will continue deepening and moving to the northeast. It should pass off Cape Cod shortly after daybreak. The back edge of the precipitation extended across the Susquehanna River Valley in Pennsylvania, as well as central Maryland around midnight. It will continue to work its way eastward, moving across our forecast area between 2:00 and 5:00. Snow will continue in much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. The mixed precipitation and rain in northeastern Maryland, Delaware, extreme southeastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey will change to snow before ending. The north wind in our region will back to the northwest, bringing additional cold air into our area. Snowfall totals to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor should be mostly in the 4 to 8 inch range. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for that area until 7:00. The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory along the Interstate 95 Corridor south of Trenton, as well as in the northern coastal counties of New Jersey. Snow and sleet totals there should be generally 1 to 3 inches.

Holy crap under 40 dBZ blob right now and it's pouring snow. Won't last too long, but wow. As of 11 pm, we had 3.75", so 1" in the last hour, which is a nice increase. 32F still here in Metuchen. Sleet line looks to be almost at the Raritan now, though. Make it stop.

I like that answer...

Interesting. Do you think it will make it to the Edison area (287 in Middlesex County) and if so for how long? Won't hold you to it, just curious on your input. And why do you think it will progress further north from the City on eastward?

As of 10 pm, we have 2.75" of new snow, with another 1/2" this past hour - a little less than I expected at this point, but with heavier snow just starting and looking to continue for a few hours, so I think we'll at least make it to 6", as long as that friggin' sleet line doesn't make it this far north - and if it does, there's going to be hell to pay, lol. Abolutely ripping here now - heaviest snow of the night with <1/4 mile visibility - has to be >1" per hour now (really heavy stuff started about 10:15 pm).

??

As of 9 pm we have 2.25" of new snow: only 1/2" the past hour, as we had a bit of a lull, but it was ripping over the last 10 minutes and heavier snow looks like it's coming. 32F. It's stunningly gorgeous out there with everything sticking to the trees and little wind (could be a problem with power/trees, obviously, but it's pretty to look at).

As of 8 pm, we have 1.75" of new snow on the ground (3/4" the last hour) and it's coming down moderately; temp has dropped to 32F. I think 6" is a lock here and 8" is possible, given the 7 pm (0Z) HRRR that just came out showing 6"+ more snow to come for much of CNJ (and having 1.75" OTG).

SIAP, as it's hard to keep up - good news for the NYC folks...just the new part below. National Weather Service New York NY 757 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion -- Made slight adjustments to the forecast this eve, mainly based on the latest HRRR, which has been handling the snow/rain transition area very well across southern NJ last few hours. Based on this, mixed p-type should remain confined to southern portions of Nassau county and NYC`s south boroughs, Suffolk County and extreme SE CT. This has impacted snow totals slightly with up to an inch more accumulation, mainly across SE CT. Otherwise, Winter Storm Warning remains in effect with a widespread 5 to 9 inch snowfall expected for the entire region, highest amounts over the western half of the forecast area between now and shortly after midnight, and the eastern half of the area during the second half of the night. Used raw 2 meter NAM temperatures with a slight decrease during times of heavier snow tonight.

This is good for folks on the "edge" worrying about changeover (Monmouth, western Ocean, western parts of SNJ, Philly, etc.) National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 644 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 630 PM Update...Moderate to heavy precip ongoing as winter storm closes in on the area. As of early this evening, rain/snow transition zone doesn`t appear to be moving too much and looks to be located close to the I-95 corridor over the northern Delmarva eastward into southern New Jersey. With a change to rain having occurred through Queen Anne`s Co. MD into Kent Co. DE and points southward we`ve dropped advisories for these counties and also removed additional snow amounts here as well. Farther north, have increasing concerns that the transition zone may struggle to make it too much farther north...especially as it nears the Philly area. Also, latest HRRR runs suggesting sleet developing in this zone as well as the evening goes on. As a result, no real changes to forecast from around the Philly area and points northward. Please see previous discussion below for further details.

As of 7 pm, measured 1" of new snow after getting home from dinner at Penang with my son (best roti canai in the area; rest of the food is decent, but worth going for the roti). 33F and snowing moderately. Maybe 1/2" of snow on paved surfaces and getting very slick out there.

As of about 5:40 pm, it's now snowing moderately now and it has dropped to 34F and it's just starting to accumulate on grass/cartops (colder surfaces); not yet on paved surfaces. Soon, I would think with increased intensity.

For the record, my guess from an hour ago on FB was 8" for my house here in Metuchen. Going bullish, as every model has us staying snow the whole time (even though it gets perilously close at times) and I think we'll see about 1" QPF and lose 0.1" on the front end and have ratios a little less than 10:1 for 8". Hey, I predicted 2.5" the other night and we got 4.5" (and I really thought I was being too conservative), so decided with the best model consensus I can almost ever recall, why not go for the high end. Will see soon - if I don't have 2" by 8 pm, that prediction will be in trouble.

Have now had ~35 minutes of light snow and have dropped from 39F to 36F. No accumulation yet, at that temp with light intensity. 20-25 dBZ incoming in about 10 minutes, according to the radar.

Started raining lightly here in Metuchen at about 4:15 pm at 40F. The light rain just changed to light snow at 4:40 pm and it's 38F. Should drop pretty quickly, as the column cools from evaporation. It's already down to 34F 10 miles W in Somerville, where they've saturated the column. Show is about to begin folks.

Started raining lightly here in Metuchen at about 4:15 pm at 40F. The light rain just changed to light snow at 4:40 pm and it's 38F. Should drop pretty quickly, as the column cools from evaporation. It's already down to 34F 10 miles W in Somerville, where they've saturated the column. Show is about to begin folks.

You're misreading it. It says, "This could cut down snow amounts in some areas particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain." This is only for areas south of 195 (which runs from south of Trenton to Belmar) and east of the Turnpike, which is not a surprise to be at risk.

And for the love of all things holy, please don't make "storm cancel/bust" posts at 3-5 pm when it starts as light rain for an hour or even two. As per above, that's expected and shouldn't "waste" too much QPF. Now if it's 6-7 pm and it's raining heavily, by all means, commence panicking (unless you live down the Jersey Shore and are expecting a decent amount of rain and then snow). NWS does a nice job with their recent update talking about the current temps and start as rain not really being factors. National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 939 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Most of the updates this morning were to temperature trends with most areas running a few degrees warm. At present think this trend will have limited impacts on precipitation type later this afternoon as dewpoints are mostly close to forecast so wet- bulbing should cool things efficiently when the more intense precipitation begins. Additionally cloud cover will continue to increase this morning into the early afternoon which should keep temps from shooting up too much. Regarding the storm, morning guidance came in a little warmer and brought the rain-snow-mix line a bit further north and west this evening. This could cut down snow amounts in some areas particularly in New Jersey east of I-95 and south of about I-195 where it is possible much of the precipitation could fall as rain. However this is a very tight situation as small changes in the sfc. low track (and precipitation intensity) will result in the snow gradient shifting slightly one way or the other. Consequently will hold off on making any changes to forecast snow amounts until 12Z guidance has fully come in and been sufficiently analyzed. Otherwise precipitation timing looks on track, with precipitation entering filling in from SW-NE early-mid afternoon. The initial precipitation will likely be rain given modest intensities and surface temperatures, however the switch to at least moderate snow is expected across most of the area around and just after sunset. The exception will likely be central-southern Delmarva and far southern NJ which may remain rain through the event.