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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    UK good hit just NW of 95 and decent hit for 95 (with some sleet/rain probably), but mostly rain for the coast, as temps start out below 32F, quickly go over freezing and don't go below 32F again for 95 and SE of there until after the precip shuts off. Most of the precip is done by 1 pm Tues. Still a decent winter storm signal.
  2. RU848789
    Walt - great post from someone who has actually had to make NWS forecasts with conflicting/limited data. The one thing I think many of us don't always think about is that the Euro is the best model - at predicting 500 mbar pressure anomalies globally (that's what the verification scores are based on - and not that that isn't important, but I've never seen "verification scores" for the various models, including the Euro on east coast winter cyclones. And that's where I think input like yours is really important based on experience and history. Doesn't mean the Euro can't be right, but one can't automatically think it is just because it's the "best" model. On the flip side, I think we've seen a bit of "confirmation bias" (wishcasting just a bit?) over the past 24 hours, where at 0Z 1/11, the Euro was somewhat of a snowy outlier and some were saying it was "leading the pack" and other models would move towards it, somewhat discounting the other 3 globals, but with regard to last night's 0Z runs, with the Euro being a non-snowy outlier, very few are saying the Euro is "leading the pack" and other models will move towards it. I'm no expert at all on synoptics, but I've done a lifetime of science where myself and my group had to evaluate scientific models and experimental results (chemical process development in pharma in R&D) and it was always difficult to not give in to confirmation bias, discarding or at least somewhat discounting data one "didn't like." Just some observations from the cheap seats - will be interesting to see how this one evolves and we're still 4+ days out with the main energy still way out in the Pacific and not sampled well (no ashore until Sat night/early Sun), plus how today's storm evolves will certainly influence how Tuesday's storm evolves. One thing for sure: the models will change, especially over the next 24-48 hours, but hopefully not much after that. That's why tracking is so fascinating.
  3. RU848789
    Impossible to know what's going to happen, but I'd rather be in the camp with 3 of the 4 major global models than one, even if that one is the Euro - the best model by a bit, not by an overwhelming amount (and that accuracy is not measure on performance with east coast cyclones - I'd love to see that though).
  4. RU848789
    While CMC is a hugger with lots of mixed precip after the initial snow thump and much faster than the GFS...
  5. RU848789
    GFS classic Miller A with great track and temps in the mid/upper 20s for the whole storm, so this is one storm where we might get >10:1 ratios - see 10:1 and Kuchera maps...
  6. RU848789
    The 18Z Euro Ensemble Mean snowfall axis moved back NW a decent amount vs. 12Z, perhaps indicating that the suppressed 12Z Op run was a bit of an outlier. It's possible. Hopefully we see a bit more consensus tonight, although as many pros have said, we might not get a great handle on Tuesday's event until we know the outcome of Friday's big storm and get the energy for Tuesday into the RAOB network so we can start with better initial conditions.
  7. RU848789
    After last year's nearly snowless winter and this year's very slow start, it's easy to forget that 2000-2020 was the 2nd snowiest 20-year period in NYC's history (since 1869) and in New Brunswick, too, even with warmer than normal winters, on average. Presumably we got a bit lucky with better patterns and big storms which really helped those averages. Not quite sure, though, if that was somewhat of a statistical aberration and now we're poised for an era of less snow, as one would expect more often than not with a warming climate and warmer winters. We just don't have enough data yet...
  8. RU848789
    Big improvements on the GFS/UK and even CMC (except for 95 and SE) for snow in our area, but the Euro is a suppressed whiff after several runs in a row of decent snowfall. It's never easy...
  9. RU848789
    and 12Z CMC is snowy along/NW of 95 with precip issues SE of 95 - hopefully that won't be an issue with the cold air in place...
  10. RU848789
    Surprised this hasn't been posted yet - GFS looking like the Euro now...
  11. RU848789
    Euro pretty similar at 0Z vs. 12Z, apart from a ~50 mile shift SE in the snow shield, which is noise at 5-6 days out; this includes surface temps in the 20s throughout the event, so no mixing/melting issues, as modeled...
  12. RU848789
    Thanks, but not a very satisfying answer they gave you. At the very least, they could state that it's a 3-day forecast. Will be curious to see if I get any different answer, but that's unlikely as I have no influence.
  13. RU848789
    Ahhh, I now see what you meant about the slider bar, which I wasn't using. I simply clicked on the "entire period" button and up popped the graphic I copied/pasted in this thread, which does say through 1/13/24. However if one tries to use the slider bar, one only gets the first 3 days to work and it's grey after that. This is a problem for this page, as users will obtain info they think is for flooding through 1/13, when it's not. One other minor point: the ensemble river flooding graphic you posted doesn't note anywhere on the graphic what timeframe the graphic is for (it only gives the start time, not the end time). Again something that should be fixed. I send emails to the WFO webmaster a couple of times per year with minor issues like this, since you may not have noticed, but I occasionally dive into deep details, lol (the webmaster is the one they recommend contacting on the NWS-Mt. Holly webpage, but this one might be better sent to MARFC as you were suggesting, since it looks like the office just "hosts" that page from them) and I always get a reply and sometimes an answer. I still recall asking in 2016 if they could start doing snowfall forecast and accumulation maps regionally, instead of just maps for each WFO and the reply was they don't do that, but he'd pass the comments along and a few years later they appeared (my guess is more than a few folks made requests like that).
  14. RU848789
    The graphic I posted (quoted above) says, "through 1/13/24" right at the top of the graphic...
  15. RU848789
    Thanks for all the info/insights, but I still am curious about the difference, as the RFC forecast I posted clearly says through 1/13, so it's not cut off on 1/10. IMO, discrepancies like that are not good to have unless there's a really good reason for it (like the forecasts are simply different - but if they are, the NWS should explain that so users aren't confused).
  16. RU848789
    We've had a great snow shower for the past hour or so, which has put down a new dusting despite it being midday and 36F. So pretty to watch the nice big flakes...
  17. RU848789
    Walt - thanks and a question. Can you highlight the differences between the "ensemble" river forecasts and what I guess I'd call the "regular" river flooding forecasts from the NWS (which are both under the "rivers and lakes" tab on the NWS page)? What is the ensemble of? Mostly curious why the ensemble forecast has the Passaic at risk of major flooding, while the regular forecast only has that in moderate flooding, as per below and in general the ensemble forecasts are much more serious. Is one or the other more accurate?
  18. RU848789
    Moderate snowfall here - might freshen up our huge snowpack, lol (we still have maybe 1/2"-1" of dense slush on the ground, as the rain didn't wash it all away). More seriously, though, can't see these snow showers amounting to anything of consequence with temps in the 35-37F range. Pretty to watch, though.
  19. RU848789
    Surprised you didn't get something like our 2" in Metuchen, although I recall seeing the radar indicating it changed to rain to my east earlier than here. Could being ~8 miles ENE and an earlier changeover and a little elevation (my house is at 110') make that difference?
  20. RU848789
    Central Park with only 0.2"? Does anyone on this board live anywhere near there to verify that? Thought I saw reports of it snowing there much of the day and people seeing some accumulation. I get the UHI, but that's crazy.
  21. RU848789
    Nice!!
  22. RU848789
    They brined the county/state roads in town, which were at least better than the residential roads, which they never brine, but the town does an amazing job with plowing when we have a decent snowfall - pretty much every residential road gets plowed within 6 hours of precip ending. Also, our town is nearly flat with minimal hills so snow covered residential roads isn't that big of a deal compared to a hilly area, like Wantage.
  23. RU848789
    So, as of 7:00 pm we had officially changed to rain and the temp was up to 34F and my last measurement was 2.0" on the nose, which was my exact guesstimate for the storm (even broken clocks, lol). The last hour or two the snow was quite wet, but at least it stayed snow. The interesting thing was that I went out for a quick spin around 6:35 pm to see the roads and pick up takeout (Portuguese BBQ, yum) and the residential streets in Metuchen were all fully snow covered and treacherous, while the county/state type roads (531/501 and 27) were partially covered/slushy and somewhat slick, and the major roads like 1 and 287 were just wet. Many local reports in the area of accidents, as I'm guessing people maybe forgot how to drive in the snow. Also, around 6:50 pm I noticed it started sounding like rain on my windshield even though it was still snowing and 10 minutes later it was all rain. Oh well. But I'm ecstatic we even got 2" when so many, including the NWS, were predicting little to no snow for the 95 corridor, including in our area. Hope there's some left tomorrow (I think there will be).
  24. RU848789
    Been snowing moderately for the last hour at 33F and we only got another 1/4", which I think means we had some compaction as the snow is fairly wet, so we're up to 1.75" right now and my 2" prediction looks very doable.
  25. RU848789
    Still snowing moderately as of 5:30 pm and we're up to 1.5" at a steady 33F. Sleet and rain still look like they're only ~5 miles S and SE of us.
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