RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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NWS -Philly isn't the only bullish one, as Mike Masco just came out with his first call and it's pretty bullish, especially from about 10 miles N of 195/276 and southward almost to Delaware Bay, where he has a 4-6" swath from the inverted trough, mainly, as per the tweet, below.
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I'm actually astounded at this, as the Euro, UK, and GFS generally have 1-2" for this storm (even using Kuchera), while only the NAM, CMC and SREFs have more than 3" anywhere. Maybe they're going with the ICON...
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The last 2 years (20.2") rank as the 4th worst 2-year period in NYC snowfall history, so bad, but not unprecedented. 96/97-97/98 was 15.5", 30/31-31/32 was 16.9" and 97/98-98/99 was 18.2". And this winter, while off to a crappy start, is nowhere near over. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
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And here's the NWS Philly updated snowfall map. We do have an obvious discontinuity between the offices from Union up through Passaic, where the NWS-NYC has 1-2" while the NWS-Philly has adjacent Middlesex, Somerset, and Morris at 2-3". This often happens this far in advance and the offices should address this in future updates. It's also worth noting that the NWS-Philly is a bit more bullish than the NBM, while the NWS-NYC is in line with the NBM.
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Ice accreting on all untreated surfaces here at 29F right now. The treated street in front of my house is ok, but the untreated street perpendicular to it is slushy from snow/sleet/rain and getting icy from the freezing rain.
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It's a win because it's already verified for much of the area with every untreated surface around here covered in a glaze of ice and we're very likely to continue to see ZR for awhile anywhere along/close to the 95 corridor.
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Score a huge win for the NAM and the RGEM the two major mesoscale/regional models, as both models have been calling for significant freezing rain (ZR) since Sunday morning and generally weren't joined by the global models in predicting appreciable ZR until Monday morning or afternoon.
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Well, we flipped to freezing rain a little while ago, but it did sleet pretty decently for 30-45 minutes, which put down 0.1" of sleet before the ZR, so our final total for the storm is 2.4", which is a bit of a bust vs. the NWS advisory for 3-5" and my prediction of 3.2", but still a nice storm if you like snow and it'll be around to enjoy for at least a week and might even be topped off on Friday. I recall being excited, but a bit skeptical when the NWS-Philly bumped up their forecast yesterday afternoon; in hindsight their 2-4" forecast for 95 and most of CNJ/NNJ/NEPA would've been better. I cleared a small paved area when it changed to sleet and yes, it's now covered with the 0.1" of sleet and a glaze of ice on top, which will likely get worse for untreated paved surfaces, as temps are still only 29F and freezing rain continues to fall until early afternoon here with temps only forecast to reach 32F. Time for some sleep, then some shoveling...
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Well, we flipped to freezing rain a little while ago, but it did sleet pretty decently for 30-45 minutes, which put down 0.1" of sleet before the ZR, so our final total for the storm is 2.4", which is a bit of a bust vs. the NWS advisory for 3-5" and my prediction of 3.2", but still a nice storm if you like snow and it'll be around to enjoy for at least a week and might even be topped off on Friday. I recall being excited, but a bit skeptical when the NWS bumped up their forecast yesterday afternoon; in hindsight their 2-4" forecast for 95 and most of CNJ/NNJ would've been better. I cleared a small paved area when it changed to sleet and yes, it's now covered with the 0.1" of sleet and a glaze of ice on top, which will likely get worse for untreated paved surfaces, as temps are still only 29F and freezing rain continues to fall until early afternoon here with temps only forecast to reach 32F. Time for some sleep, then some shoveling...
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Of course that band is sleet, damn - best looking band of the storm lost to sleet. The dual pol looked like it and verified. Final (I think) snow measurement as of 8:30 am was 2.3" and I cleared the board to measure the sleet (which does get added to the snow, although sleet is much more dense than snow - typically 1" of liquid translates to 3" of sleet and 10" of snow). Hopefully the freezing rain holds off for awhile, although the temp has jumped up to 28F...
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Of course that band is sleet, damn - best looking band of the storm lost to sleet. The dual pol looked like it and verified. Final (I think) snow measurement as of 8:30 am was 2.3" and I cleared the board to measure the sleet (which does get added to the snow, although sleet is much more dense than snow - typically 1" of liquid translates to 3" of sleet and 10" of snow). Hopefully the freezing rain holds off for awhile, although the temp has jumped up to 28F...
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Anyone SW of me (New Brunswick to Princeton) know if that nice band heading NE towards me is still snow? Anyone?
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As of 8 am we're up to 2.2" and still snowing at 26F, so temps are on the increase as the mix line gets closer (looks to be 15-20 miles SE of me). Looks like another decent band is to our SW from Philly to Trenton and will hopefully hit us (as snow).
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As of 8 am we're up to 2.2" and still snowing at 26F, so temps are on the increase as the mix line gets closer (looks to be 15-20 miles SE of me). Looks like another decent band is to our SW from Philly to Trenton and will hopefully hit us (as snow).
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Had 1.5" at 4:30 am and just had our best 30 min of the storm and as of 7 am, we're at 2.0". Starting to doubt we get to 3" here (my prediction was 3.2"), as the radar has been much spottier over the last several hours than forecasted and the short term models right now aren't showing more than another inch falling along/SE of 95, if that, especially if mixing reaches 95 later this morning when precip rates are expected to increase, at least for areas NW of 95 and N of 78, where the storm has underperformed significantly with only about 1-2" for much of NWNJ/NEPA/NENJ/NYC. Huge doubts over whether the coastal is going to deliver as much snow/precip as was modeled even a few hours ago. Forecast was good for SNJ and CNJ SE of 95 with 3.5" in South River, 2.5" in Howell and 2.5" in Toms River.
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Just had our best 30 min of the storm and as of 7 am, we're at 2.0". Starting to doubt we get to 3" here (my prediction was 3.2"), as the radar has been much spottier over the last several hours than forecasted and the short term models right now aren't showing more than another inch falling along/SE of 95, if that, especially if mixing reaches 95 later this morning when precip rates are expected to increase, at least for areas NW of 95 and N of 78, where the storm has underperformed significantly with only about 1-2" for much of NWNJ/NEPA/NENJ/NYC. Huge doubts over whether the coastal is going to deliver as much snow/precip as was modeled even a few hours ago. Forecast was good for SNJ and CNJ SE of 95 with 3.5" in South River, 2.5" in Howell and 2.5" in Toms River.
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After a snooze, just checked the radar history and after an hour of nearly nothing, snow picked back up around 2:30 pm and then became moderate around 3:30 pm and I went out in it around 4:30 pm and measured 1.6" with the temp now at 25F. It is really pretty out there with moderately falling beautiful dendrites and nearly no wind. Had a nice little walk in the silent snow. The NWS cut back on snowfall a bit for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC, down to 3-4" and SE of 95 to 2-3", as per the maps. Not a surprise with a bit less snow falling overnight vs. the forecast and with a mix (and maybe plain rain) probably occurring SE of 95 by 7-9 am and a mix by 9-11 am for 95 (based on a few point/click forecasts I looked at - the AFD wasn't very helpful). When any changeover to non-snow occurs will be critical in whether the 95 corridor gets to 3-4", as we're going to need to get a few hours of at least moderate snowfall to get there after the coastal starts to crank by 6-7 am, according to the discussion. Pretty sure most of the area SE of 95 already has their 2-3" or will by 6-7 am, based on posts I've seen on the weather boards.
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Colonia? Rahway? I worked in Rahway for 31 years, at Merck...
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As of 1 am, we're up to 1.1", so we had about another 1/4" last hour, but the radar has dried up to our SW and it's heading here, so expecting less this next hour, unless that fairly large hole closes up. Still 24F. Probably going to nap for a few hours...
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Had some weird PC crap going on, lol...deleted the dups...
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Not here - that hole is a hole in Metuchen - barely a flurry now and it looks like it could kill most of an hour for me.
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Welcome aboard! And let's get this man a red tag! And since you're here, how much QPF do you think the 95 corridor from, say Edison (I know, just outside of your CWA, but close and where I live, lol), to NYC will be losing to sleet/ZR/rain. Hoping the NAM is overdone with the ZR and we stay snow longer, but we'll see I guess. Appreciate the work the NWS does, especially PHI and OKX, as I'm right on the border.
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As of 1 am, we're up to 1.1", so we had about another 1/4" last hour, but the radar has dried up to our SW and it's heading here, so expecting less this next hour, unless that fairly large hole closes up. Still 24F. Probably going to nap for a few hours...
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Finally getting a decent band the last 10 minutes with heavier snowfall and bigger dendrites; looks like the band might last another 20 minutes, but hard to predict that stuff.
