RU848789

Make that GFS/CMC/UK/Euro consensus. Boom! Euro also shows 1-3" along 95 and 3-5" NW of 95 in NJ/EPA/SENY on Monday.

Not sure I can recall such model consensus 5-days out from the GFS/CMC/UK for a major winter storm for the Philly-NYC region. I assume the Euro will still show such a storm too. Let's hope this one isn't only a digital snowstorm.

And it's in the 20s for the 95 corridor and NW of there with temps only getting to 32F at the immediate coast. Would be nice to have enough cold air to not have to worry about p-type...

Just my opinion, but I think we need two separate threads for the 14th and 16th potential events. Way too many posts in this thread where it's difficult to tell which event someone is talking about.

I know it's just one model run and it's 8 days out, but there's at least hope - I could live with this in CNJ (GFS/CMC show snow N of 84).

Interesting to see the moderate weakening observed by the hurricane hunters this evening with winds now down to 130 mph (just barely Cat 4). However, in the last hour or so, there have been indications of an eye trying to form, which is often a sign of intensification. The Yucatan could use a break, although 130 mph is still a big deal. Beyond there, no real change as the forecast is still for a Cat 3 hurricane to strike the central LA coast Friday night (120-125 mph) - the center of the track has landfall near Marsh Island, just south of Lafeyette and about 100 miles west of New Orleans and 90 miles east of Lake Charles. Let's see if tonight's models make any big moves on track or intensity.

You can close the thread after this post, lol - this really cracked me up - you could use the same meme for the small asteroid that might hit us the day before election day... https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/22/us/asteroid-earth-november-2020-scn-trnd/index.html

Surprised so low, when we got 2.75" just 5-6 miles away and New Brunswick got 2.55".

A general 2-4" for most of NJ and nearby DE, SE PA, SE NY, with lollipops to 6" in parts of SWNJ and CNJ so far. Pretty impressive. Got 2.75" at our house in Metuchen with 90% of that between about 12-3 pm and only some occasional showers since then.

Are you calling me nobody, lol? I did post a summary of everything around 4 am - didn't post before that since there was no activity...

Great stuff - is there a link to this? NWS is so cryptic with its info that things like this are hard to find...

Earlier today, when the NHC was forecasting 3-5" for rain for most of the mid-Atlantic/NE (with up to 8" in spots), I was skeptical, since the 12Z models almost all showed 1-3" of rain, mostly, and the NWS offices (Philly and NYC) at 4 pm were calling for a general 1-3" of rain (with locally greater amounts) for the Philly-NJ-NYC-CT-LI region. However, if anyone has looked at the 0Z suite, every major global (Euro, UK, GFS, UK, and CMC), the NAM, the RGEM and even the HRRR are all showing at least 1-3" of rain" with the UK, Euro and CMC having significant swaths of 3-5" of rain for this area with some lollipops over 6" on a couple of models. That's flooding level rains in 18 hours. I'm not a rain fan, so I have no interest in seeing that much. Too sleepy to post all the maps, but it's a pretty accurate take, I think. Here's the latest from the NHC at 11 pm: Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Sea surface temps are pretty marginal N of NC, though, so doubt we'll see a strong storm anywhere near us (doesn't mean we can't have very heavy rains though, with the right track - just talking winds/coastal flooding perspective). Also, not sure how "tropical" this system will really be.

Two camps in the 0Z suite. Camp 1 shows about 2-4" of rain for most of the Philly-NYC corridor (and points within 50-75 miles of 95) on the GFS and NAM with the low coming right up along the coast, while camp 2 has 1/2-1" of rain on the Euro (which was showing 2-4" of rain for the area in its previous two runs) UK, and CMC (less well inland, with the 1" amounts at the coast) with the track 100+ miles offshore, for what it's worth. More tracking on tap...

Never sleep on a Miller A, lol. It was written off as a major snowstorm 2 days before it hit, with most solutions showing the storm going out to sea, some missing completely and some showing 1-2" for the 95 corridor and a few to several inches for coastal NJ and LI and SE New England, whereas 3-4 days before the event there was absolute model mayhem with complete misses and blizzards (especially on the Euro). And then the epic 12/25 0Z runs all showed a huge snowstorm, about 36 hours before the event started. Thread below. I was in Charlotte visiting family on Christmas Eve night after everyone went to sleep causally surfing the web and watching the model runs and every model showed a bomb for our area. Best Christmas present I could get, lol. I even convinced my wife and then 16 year old son that we should leave Charlotte after Christmas dinner so we could be home for the blizzard and we left around 7 pm getting caught in the snow a bit for the first 3-4 hours of the drive with several inches on even the interstates, but traffic was light and we outran the snow by about Durham and the rest of the ride was fine. I got a couple of hours of sleep, played soccer the morning of 12/26, as usual for a Sunday, then sat back and enjoyed an incredible storm. Craig Allen had this to say after seeing the 0Z suite that night: "Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS."

Well, I'm liking the fact that all 4 major global models at 0Z are at least now showing a pretty significant to major coastal storm this weekend (mostly Saturday late morning through the evening for the Philly-NYC region), but only one of them is showing significant snowfall. The GFS shows a snow to rain storm with significant snowfall along and NW of 95, while the UK shows a monsoon of a rainstorm with 1-3" of rain (close to 1" well NW to almost 3" near the coast), and the Euro and CMC show a major storm a couple hundred miles off the coast, with just some modest rains near the coast, but huge rains offshore (1-2"), so the precip is certainly there with all 4 models. But we're about 5 days out and obviously much can change between now and the event, especially with the main players being well offshore of the NA continent. As many have said with borderline antecedent temps this is a serious "thread the needle" scenario, so a major snowstorm is unlikely, but we all know powerful storms like this can essentially "generate" their own cold air via dynamic cooling with heavy precip rates and sometimes turn a rainstorm into a pastebomb of a snowstorm. So, nobody needs to buy milk and bread yet (or a canoe), but this one is worth tracking and maybe it's our time to get lucky...or not. The one thing that's starting to look likely is the potential for heavy surf and possibly minor tidal flooding (fortunately it won't be a full moon).

Nov 2018 was 2nd worst for me, behind Jan 1987, which was the absolute worst. Was in grad school at RU and there were literally hundreds of cars abandoned on roads all around the area, as many got stuck for 4+ hours moving just a few miles, all over CNJ. Storm was underpredicted and hit really hard right after lunch on a Friday. My commute home was 1/2 mile and it took 30 minutes, partly because I got out of my car a few times to help people who had spun out.

Temp finally up to 32F here, but everything not covered in snow is encased in about 0.1-0.2" of ice. For folks who haven't changed over to ZR yet, wait until after the ZR goes over to rain to clear your driveways and sidewalks, as ZR fallling on snow is a non-issue, but ZR falling on cleared, sub-32F paved surfaces leads to an ice rink. My neighbor cleared the sidewalk after the snow and it's now a sheet of ice.

Unfortunately, the sleet was relatively short-lived, as I got 0.1" of the pellets, so 1.7" total snow/sleet, and now it's moderate freezing rain at 28F, but it is climbing. Nobody was really predicting 0.2" or so of freezing rain for much of the area. Fortunately, much of it will fall on snow and be absorbed rather than creating skating rinks, although cleared, non-treated paved surfaces, especially lightly traveled ones, could become very icy with instant accretion with temps in the upper 20s, so be careful out there for the next few hours until temps go above 32F. At least we should wake up to some snow/slush.

Damn, same here with sleet snow mix (mostly sleet) - by the cc-radar a tongue of sleet looks to have developed along 78 from Allentown to Somerville and then along 287 to Perth Amboy. Hoping the precip behind it, which is not showing a sleet signature is back to snow (with heavier precip - will see shortly as heavier precip is on our doorstep) and not freezing rain, since it's 26F at the surface and that would be a mess.

Wow, got 1/4" over the last 15 minutes of moderate snow with gorgeous dendrites, as we're obviously getting very nice supersaturation-driven crystal growth up in the DGZ - don't usually get 1" per hour rates without heavy rates. Up to 1.5".

Over the last hour we had mostly light snow or no snow, getting only 1/4" more, so we're at 1.25". However, moderate snow is on our doorstep and will hopefully fall for the next hour or so, if the sleet can hold of (it has stalled out near Trenton). Temp is up to 26F. Enjoying my walks outside and watching the young ones sledding across the street at a small hill, where I used to take our son (now 25) - by the time he was 11-12 we had to upgrade to driving out to Schooley Mountain in Long Valley.

Can't make this stuff up, since this model was showing a quick change to sleet much of the day - now I hope it's right, lol...like I just said on FB, I have no clue what's going to happen, so I'm going to continue going for walks and watching the kids sledding on the small hill across my street.

After the lull, moderate snow started back up about 10-15 minutes ago and we're now up to 1.0". Guessing another hour or so before the sleet gets here, assuming it moves at its current rate - that would likely put us near 2" before what would likely be a few hours of sleet. Temps up from 23F to 25F over the past 2 hours so the warm air advection is certainly ongoing.

Thanks. And I agree on impact being most important. Don't know if you've seen my sometimes exhaustive (lol) posts on this, but I strongly believe sleet is almost as impactful as snow and that people greatly underestimate the impact of sleet because 3:1 ratio sleet is only about 1/3 the depth of 10:1 snow. Problem with that thinking is that for 1" of sleet and 3.3" of snow, for example the frozen mass is the same and frozen mass is all that really matters for driving and snow/sleet removal; and, in fact, sleet will melt more slowly than snow, given its much lower surface area per unit volume vs. flakes, since melting occurs at the surface and less SA means slower melting. The one exception to impact is that sleet obviously has nearly no impact on visibility, which does matter.