RU848789

Stumbled across this, from ECMWF, which I think people will like. Sounds like the increase in horizontal resolution of the ensemble forecast to the same resolution used in the operational model means there is no lower resolution "control" any more (meaning the "control" will now be the op), which has always been a bit of an issue. But the coolest part was seeing that the extended range ensemble will now run daily out to day 46 with 100 ensemble members; no more "weeklies." The fact that it'll run at 0Z will affect the sleep patterns of millions of weenies worldwide. In 2023 we will see a major upgrade to our forecasting system. The key change will be a significant increase in the horizontal resolution of our medium-range ensemble forecasts from 18 km to 9 km, bringing the 50‑member ensemble to the same level as our current high-resolution forecast. Cycle 48r1 will also bring a major upgrade to the configuration of the extended-range ensemble. Rather than being an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15, it will be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 100 members. Cycle 48r1 will be the first ECMWF forecast upgrade to be produced in our new data centre in Bologna, Italy. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/focus/2022/global-numerical-modelling-heart-ecmwfs-forecasts#:~:text=For example%2C ECMWF's high-resolution,the first operational weather forecasts.

Hence my comment that it's probably a fantasy...

And the GFS remains alone...

This may wake a few folks up - probably a fantasy (and ratios would likely be bad for part one during the day on Sunday), but it's why we track, lol...

Yeah, they slammed the door pretty hard on the hopes raised by the NAM and a bit by the GFS, although at this point, we can't know the outcome yet - but it sure would've been nice if we saw at least some consensus on a colder solution.

Don - do you (or Walt or anyone else) know if the NBM continuously updates its maps (like snowfall, precip, etc.) as each model output is received, since the outputs come out for a suite over 3+ hours? I haven't notice it change much, though, during that time for past events and I can't imagine they have an "advance copy" of the output hours before we do.

It's the NAM just about past the end of its useful range, but still an impressive shift SE in snowfall shield, so maybe a ray of hope for 95/coast... And here's the graphic through the end of the run.

CMC is pretty good too and it's nice that, as modeled by both the Euro and CMC, most of the precip falls Sunday evening/overnight into early Monday, so at least indirect sunlight wouldn't be an issue.

Given that this is the NYC Metro forum, I wonder if a better question is where is the best place to live within reasonable driving/train distance from NYC and I'll go with 35 miles from Central Park as a somewhat arbitrary cutoff, since that distance generally means you're probably within a 1-hour commute (on a good day and not from all locations within 35 miles). If that were the criterion, I might have to go with West Milford in NW Passaic County, the NW part of which is at about 1000 feet in elevation and about 34 miles NW of CPK, so it'll get elevation-driven snows as well as still not being too far NW to miss on most coastals (unlike the Poconos which can miss on those). I live about 27 miles SW of CPK, right on the 95 corridor and generally get very similar snowfall as CPK, except in very borderline events like the past few, where the UHI can really hurt CPK or latitude can hurt like the last one (we have 7.3" to 2.3" for CPK, which still sounds a bit low to me). As much as I'd love more snow, this is where friends and family are, so moving is doubtful.

Thought I posted this hours ago, but somehow I didn't post it here but did elsewhere (I post too many places during storms, lol). After shoveling then relaxing some, I went back outside to go run some errands and we had about 0.1" of new snow on the board, cars, etc., which must've fallen after dark, so my total is now up to 2.9" and our season total is up to 7.3". Every tenth helps, lol. Temp down to 27F. I also calculated my snow:liquid ratio for the first time ever (used a roughly 11x11" square section I melted down) got 17.6" of snow per 1" of liquid. I was guessing it was around 15-17, so 17.6 is believable. That means I only had 0.16" of liquid equivalent per 2.9" of snow depth. Just imagine if we had gotten the 0.3-0.4" of precipitation we were looking at on some models 2 days ago and had those ratios - would've been at least 6" of snow on the ground. Damn.

I also calculated my snow:liquid ratio for the first time ever (used a roughly 11x11" square section I melted down) got 17.6" of snow per 1" of liquid. I was guessing it was around 15-17, so 17.6 is believable. That means I only had 0.16" of liquid equivalent per 2.9" of snow depth. Just imagine if we had gotten the 0.3-0.4" of precipitation we were looking at on some models 2 days ago and had those ratios - would've been at least 6" of snow on the ground. Damn.

Forgot to post this. After shoveling then relaxing some, I went back outside to go run some errands and we had about 0.1" of new snow on the board, cars, etc., which must've fallen after dark, so my total is now up to 2.9" and our season total is up to 7.3". Every tenth helps, lol. Driving around Metuchen, Edison and South Plainfield, all of the county roads seemed to be in good shape, but some of the lightly traveled residential streets were icy in spots, so be careful out there. Temp down to 27F.

As of about 3:15 pm, the snow was definitely over and my final measurement was 2.8", which turns out to not be that far below my 3.3" prediction around noon yesterday, when the forecast was for 3-6", which I never really bought into since the models were generally showing 2-4" for us, so i went well below what was being forecast at that time. Still a bit on the high side relative to what we got, but then again, my guess is that 5-10 miles north of us most are likely under 2", just based on the radar loop. Very nice, pretty storm and not too much inconvenience for most, I imagine, at least for shoveling, given how light and fluffy it was - was able to use a wide broom for 90% of it. There were definitely some impacts locally with snow covered local streets and even county roads for an hour or two - numerous fender benders reported, but nothing outrageous. Brings us to 7.2" on the season, which shouldn't be too far below normal, which is likely about 11" at this point in the season.

As of about 3:15 pm, the snow was definitely over and my final measurement was 2.8", which turns out to not be that far below my 3.3" prediction around noon yesterday, when the forecast was for 3-6", which I never really bought into since the models were generally showing 2-4" for us, so i went well below what was being forecast at that time. Still a bit on the high side relative to what we got, but then again, my guess is that 5-10 miles north of us most are likely under 2", just based on the radar loop. Very nice, pretty storm and not too much inconvenience for most, I imagine, at least for shoveling, given how light and fluffy it was - was able to use a wide broom for 90% of it. There were definitely some impacts locally with snow covered local streets and even county roads for an hour or two - numerous fender benders reported, but nothing outrageous. Brings us to 7.2" on the season, which shouldn't be too far below normal, which is likely about 11" at this point in the season.

As of 2:30 pm we hit 2.7", but the snow has gone to light intensity since about 2:25 pm, so not sure if we can squeeze out another 0.3" to get to 3". Still 29F.

As of 2:30 pm we hit 2.7", but the snow has gone to light intensity since about 2:25 pm, so not sure if we can squeeze out another 0.3" to get to 3". Still 29F.

Completely agree on no need for an SOE for much of CNJ and all of NNJ - they ought to be able to announce those things for specific counties, like the NWS does.

Thanks!! That page can get a little cantankerous, but that's FB for ya. We got very lucky with the bands as it looks like just 5-10 miles N of us didn't get much, but they kept coming here. Really pure beautiful snowfall. I truly never thought we'd get to 2.5" (or more) just 5 hours ago. Just wish the snow shield went further north so everyone could've enjoyed it.

Couple of pics of the pond across the street and the throng of sledders...looks like fun - trying to convince my 29-year old son to go sledding tomorrow...(at a bigger hill, lol)

As of 2:00 pm, we're up to 2.5", so 0.4"/hr rate the last 30 min. Snowing moderately, but it looks like this might be our last decent band over the next 30-45 minutes. 3" is possible, but unlikely. Still 29F - temp has barely budged. With the lighter intensity the last hour or so, the busy county road in front of our house which was treated yesterday has lost most of its snow cover, but the untreated side streets are still all snow covered.

As of 2:00 pm, we're up to 2.5", so 0.4"/hr rate the last 30 min. Snowing moderately, but it looks like this might be our last decent band over the next 30-45 minutes. 3" is possible, but unlikely. Still 29F - temp has barely budged. With the lighter intensity the last hour or so, the busy county road in front of our house which was treated yesterday has lost most of its snow cover, but the untreated side streets are still all snow covered.

As of 1:30 pm, we're up to 2.3", so only 0.3" the last hour, but we're now within 1" of my early prediction, which I wouldn't have thought would happen just 4 hours ago. Snowing more lightly now and the radar isn't as impressive, so we might only get another 1/2" or so if these bands don't start building back in. Still 29F.

As of 1:30 pm, we're up to 2.3", so only 0.3" the last hour, but we're now within 1" of my early prediction, which I wouldn't have thought would happen just 4 hours ago. Snowing more lightly now and the radar isn't as impressive, so we might only get another 1/2" or so if these bands don't start building back in. Still 29F.

As of 12:30 pm we hit the 2.0" mark! Woohoo! That was 0.4"/hr the last 30 minutes. Coming down moderately, still with beautiful dendrites. I've never tried to measure snow ratios before, but I might give it a try, as I think we're probably in the 15:1 or more neighborhood. Gorgeous. And the radar still looks pretty good for the next 30 min. Still 29F.

As of 12:30 pm we hit the 2.0" mark! Woohoo! That was 0.4"/hr the last 30 minutes. Coming down moderately, still with beautiful dendrites. I've never tried to measure snow ratios before, but I might give it a try, as I think we're probably in the 15:1 or more neighborhood. Gorgeous. And the radar still looks pretty good for the next 30 min. Still 29F.