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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    Up to 4.0" as of 10 pm in Metuchen - 1/2" over the last half hour. Temp steady at 23F. It's freakin' gorgeous out there - go take a walk if you haven't yet...
  2. RU848789
    Haven't been reading so forgive me if this has been said or is obvious, but keep in mind that just about every 18Z model (1 pm data inputs) had most of CNJ at 1-2" right about now, so the fact that most seem to have 2-4" as of 10 pm means the storm is exceeding expectations, so far. Also, the snow overnight isn't supposed to be that heavy, as the coastal low is just getting going now off the NC coast, so most of the models have CNJ in the 5-7" range at 7 am tomorrow, with the heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm (a foot or more). And in NNJ/NYC, add 2-3 hours to those numbers. On FB and a couple of non-weather boards, people are wondering why we don't have more snow...
  3. RU848789
    Up to 3.5" as of 9 pm at 23F; snow has let up a bit and also smaller flake size, so presumably lower ratio.
  4. RU848789
    And up to 2.75" OTG in Metuchen at 7 pm at 23F.
  5. RU848789
    A guy on another board is saying he only has 1/2" in NE Philly - sounds low, especially with us having 2.5" up in the Edison area - anyone there?
  6. RU848789
    Just got back from getting takeout (Woodstack in Metuchen - really good flatbreads, pastas and specialty dishes). Roads getting pretty bad as we now have 2.25" as of 6 pm (3/4" the last hour), which is definitely beyond what was expected now (<1" on all models). Still 24F and snowing moderately - big fluffy flakes, so I'm guessing our snow/liquid ratio is at least 15:1 (usually about 10:1 here).
  7. RU848789
    As of 5 pm we had 1.5" and it was still 24F in Metuchen.
  8. RU848789
    Just got in from a ride around town and a bit on 287 and it's pretty slick out there with the cold temps (24F) and the snow sticking easily and probably melting/refreezing some. Saw a couple of spin-outs locally and even 287 is starting to get a little slushy. 1" already on the ground in Metuchen at 4 pm, which is certainly early.
  9. RU848789
    Surprisingly, as of 2:30 pm, in Metuchen, we already have 1/2" of light, fluffy snow - gorgeous dendrites - and it's 23F.
  10. RU848789
    NWS issued their updated snowfall maps, going with an 8-12" range for most of their counties in the Philly and NYC offices, but no 12-18" amounts, which is reasonable, given we're almost 48 hours out still and things can still deviate from their forecast (like the 6Z NAM with less or the 6Z RGEM with a lot more - and they have plenty of time to adjust upwards from 8-12" swaths if needed - the 8-12" amounts get the point across that a prety major snowfall is likely. I didn't like how aggressive they got early on with the 12-18"/18-24" predictions, most of which didn't verify (and they backed off on them before the storm started).
  11. RU848789
    Not sure if posted (no time to keep up, lol), but I like these regional maps best - people should also note that they're only through 7 pm Monday...
  12. RU848789
    I know - the poster I was responding to was comparing the 12Z UK and 0Z Euro...
  13. RU848789
    Kind of, although the Euro was still much better than the 12Z UK, which was a complete whiff N of 276/195.
  14. RU848789
    Walt - I've asked this question numerous times over the years and never really gotten a good response, but I don't recall asking you, so here goes. Does there exist somewhere data on accuracy scores of the various models for snowstorms and especially NE snowstorms (and NYC metro would be even better, lol)? We always hear that the verification scores (which are based on general 500mbar data verification, from what I recall) show the Euro best, then the UK, then the CMC/GFS lagging those two, but I think many people would love to know which models are best for snowstorms at various timepoints before the storm (5 days, 3 days, 1 day, etc.). Any help here or is it just "rules of thumb" based on anecdotes and/or memory of mets who've been around a long time? If not, maybe it's time for someone to do this as a PhD dissertation and then use it to coauthor the 3rd edition of the Kocin-Uccinelli book on NE snowstorms. Thanks!
  15. RU848789
    Yeah, the CMC output is still stuck at 24 hrs on Pivotal/TT, but I've seen people saying the CMC was "great." Can anyone share a CMC snowfall map? Thanks.
  16. RU848789
    Been a mix of sleet and snow the last 45 minutes or so and we're up to a full 1/2" on the ground - we might need a SOE. We're in a lull right now - supposed to be a few more hours of precip, but it looks pretty dry to our SW. Down to 32F.
  17. RU848789
    Snow intensity has increased to moderate with a whole 1/4" on the ground now. The snow rain line also moved SE by 10-20 miles and is now down close to 195. Maybe we can get 1" out of this after all. Temps have also dropped to 32-33F with evaporation cooling of the column so we're getting accumulations on all surfaces - snow is way better than freezing rain.
  18. RU848789
    Snowing here in Metuchen at 34F with a whole dusting on the ground, lol. Reports of rain south of the Raritan and SW into Mercer and sleet/snow north of the Raritan and in places like New Hope.
  19. RU848789
    Well, somebody had to do it. Nice eye candy 6-8 days out (although this includes what falls tomorrow, so there's not actually that much N of 84 for this; it's also a 36+ hr event as per the model, which sounds fishy). We can dream though. Nice to also see the GFS/CMC with significant storms, even if the evolution/placement of precip is different. And the UK is showing the start of the storm, too at 144. I sense a lack of sleep coming soon.
  20. RU848789
    Essentially every global and the NAM/RGEM have CNJ/EPA getting 1" or so along 195/276 (with less to the south, except for a couple of models that have 1-2" from the initial SW flow) with amounts increasing to 2-3" up to about 78, with some divergence north of there: some of the models have 2-3" for points N of 78 also, while some have 3-4" N of 78. The exception to this is some of the models only have 1-2" for LI. Obviously, we're still ~60 hours away from the start of the event, so much can change, but I could live with a 1-3/2-4" event for most.
  21. RU848789
    Euro sees it this way too, with the first system being a dry, sheared, suppressed miss for this forum, but the 2nd system providing at least a minor/moderate event with a long duration. Something is better than nothing and I can live with a day later, although I'd like to have my 4-8" storm from 2 days ago back, lol.
  22. RU848789
    So the GFS finally caves to the Euro, UK, and CMC tonight and then the Euro fizzles for us...just not much precip...
  23. RU848789
    I like having the UK and Euro on our side, even if the Euro isn't quite as robust as the UK - still 5 days out, so much can change...
  24. RU848789
    Mark me down for this, lol...
  25. RU848789
    not even close...
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