RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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UK with significant improvement in snowfall at 0Z, like most models so far...
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Just got home - holy crap, GFS! And the ICON and 3km NAM were decent too. I'll still take 1-3", but the GFS and AIFS make me want more, lol.
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Tons of professionals use IBM's GRAF model - not sure what your issue with it is. I wish Pivotal/TT and others had it and Weathernext (Google's AI model) available.
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AIFS not as robust, but still a nice hit...
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In case folks didn't see the big snowstorm on the GRAF; courtesy of Jeff Berardelli... https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022432636526883311
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Even the UK is waking up at least a little...
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I go away for 7 hours w/o internet access and all hell breaks loose, lol. It would be amazing if the AIFS ends up being right or close to it despite being on an island, although the Euro, GFS and now ICON are at least moving in that direction - I'd be ecstatic with 1-2" given the low expectations. NWS Philly wasn't buying the AIFS in its latest AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through Monday, bringing some rain and snow to the area. Low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast states this weekend, emerging over the Southeast by Sunday evening. A warm front will extend out from this low, and overrunning precip will develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will impact the area Sunday night, tapering off Monday morning. The big question is going to be how far north the precipitation gets. 12Z/13 NAM pretty much has precipitation confined to Delmarva, while the 12Z/13 GFS is a bit farther north with heavier QPF in Delmarva, and precipitation as far north as into the Lehigh Valley. The 12Z/CMC is similar to the NAM in that it keeps the system south. In terms of p- type, generally looking at rain in Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey, and snow along and north of the I-95 corridor. 12Z/ECMWF is similar to the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF-AI remains an outlier producing Warning level snowfall across the region. Since it is an extreme outlier, will not factor the ECMWF-AI in the forecast. With precipitation amounts heavier in the southern portions of the area, generally expecting less than an inch of snow where snow falls, mostly Sunday night into Monday morning.
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Fascinating that there is that gap from 3/23-3/31 for >6" storms. Presumably it's not "real" i.e., there's not enough statistical power in the data (when n's are 1 out of 156 years) to conclude that late March would be less likely than early April to have 6" snowfalls, plus it simply fails the common sense test, since late March is colder than early April.
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Well, most of NNJ/CNJ (along/N of 78)/SENY just got some freezing rain over the last couple of hours, so those advisories were well placed. Everything here is coated with a thin glaze of ice, although salted paved surfaces are fine, but unsalted ones are a bit slick and probably worse along/N of 78 where more freezing rain fell. Temps don't go above 32F for most until 7-9 am, so be careful if you're an early riser.
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CMC looks good and the Euro is a monster with phasing and dynamic cooling ftw (along with EPS and AIFS-EPS and the AIFS jumped 100-150 miles north), but not the UK/GFS. I think we now have something legitimate to track, at least, even if the setup is still pretty marginal for snow in these parts. Ya never know and it seems like it's been a long time since we had a marginal pattern/setup deliver a threaded needle for us.
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Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested.
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HRRR was pretty good, at least for most of NJ, sadly. Just 0.2" of snow here vs. 1/2-1" forecast, which is still a pretty minor bust, since the 1" assumed 15-20:1 ratios meaning only about 0.05" QPF and to be off by only that much shouldn't come as a surprise.
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Without having looked at a model or any posts, I'm going to make a prediction: the 12Z models show at least a couple of big snowstorms next weekend. No way do we get 139 replies in the 5 hours I've been away, otherwise. Ok, time to check. Edit: guess it was more the LI/CT/RI/MA snow, although CMC and AIFS look promising for next Sun/Mon.
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With the Ft. Dix radar down, I missed the start of some light pixie dust snow (my wife saw it first, lol) and we now have a dusting on the ground. Would love to get at least 1/2".
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Last 3 HRRR runs show way less snow than earlier runs...hoping it's wrong...
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With no Ft Dix radar, anyone seeing snow?
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At least a B. It's silly that some are saying we haven't reached average snowfall for an entire winter, when the winter is barely half over - one has to grade on where we are now vs. where we should be now. The fact that we're well ahead of where we would normally be makes snowfall at least a B and an A- for me, since we got a little more lucky than CPK and have 29.5", which is our average for the winter, already.
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Found this, which goes back 90 years (not all the way back to the 1859 start of the NYC record) and shows about a 3.4F increase in 30-year temp averages since then. Obviously, that's part of why this year's "cold" D/J isn't as cold historically.
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Don - as always, love these posts, thanks. Any insight into how cold Dec/Jan were, historically speaking? Seems like probably in the coldest 30-40 D/J combos for NYC and much of the area off the top of my head, although maybe I'm biasing that based on how cold it's been since 1/23 and will likely be for the 3 weeks through 2/12. Too bad we had that warmup in early Jan.
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Easily, especially since the pack for most started with 1-2" otg from 1/17-18 and most of us got 1.5-1.9" frozen QPF on 1/25, even if it might've only been 11-12" in depth, since 3-4" of that was sleet for many. That's a lot of frozen QPF to melt (and not much of it has melted yet) and with temps only getting to around 40F late next week, I'd think most of the pack will still be here on 2/17, especially if we top it off tomorrow and a bit next week.
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NWS has slowly crept up the snowfall amounts over the last 2 days, from <1/2" to <1" to 1"+. I know it's not a lot, but 1" of snow with temps in the 20s is going to accumulate on every surface and won't melt much during the day on Saturday with temps falling through the teens, so even 1" will impact driving.
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With major caveats - I don't love Kuchera, but temps will be in the mid-20s so it might be accurate here, and it's the NAM at the end of its range - here's the 12Z NAM Kuchera for late Friday into Sat morning. Would love to get ~1" of fresh powder on top of what we have.
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The 132 year average is 25.4" while the 1990-2020 30-year average is 29.6". https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/monthlydata/index.php?stn=286055&elem=snow
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29.5" to date here in Metuchen. We've been very lucky this season relative to CPK on several storms.
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I thought these streaks were temps at or below 32F, so streak wouldn't be over yet. Not that it really matters. If we get 2 days this week of 33 and 34 F and it then stays below 32F thru 2/10, that's still 18 days straight below 34F, which is still way below normal and just as impressive as the record of 16 days at or below 32F.
