RU848789

NHC not backing down on the Cat 4 forecast and hasn't really changed the projected track either, with landfall still likely between Apalachicola and Alligator Island tomorrow evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Helene is obviously going to be devastating for the FL coast and just inland with high winds and surge and downed trees/power outages, but the untold story of this storm, when all is said and done, might be the torrential flooding, especially well inland in GA/AL/SC/TN/NC/VA/KY and particularly for the Apps.

I wish these model plots would include the Rosetta Stone translator for the model names relative to their common names, lol...

Thankfully, for us, the models sucked terribly for this "event." Our forecast in OCNJ on Friday was for a nice Sat-Mon with rain moving in Tuesday, putting down 2-4", depending on the model. Then the start time kept getting pushed back and Tuesday turned out warm and dry, albeit mostly cloudy and we had the same thing today. Forecast was still calling for 1/2-1" tonight into Thursday, as of the early afternoon, but the latest update has decreased this to about 1/4". I know the region needs rain, but our vacation didn't, lol. And our weather here looks pretty good through at least mid next week; later next week could be pretty wet, but that's a long way off...

No!!!!!!! We're in OCNJ the next 2 weeks. At least Sat-Tues looks good...

Yep, that's about a 40 mile shift east, which is pretty significant, especially for New Orleans, if any additional shifts east occur. It's also interesting to note the bolded part below from the NHC discussion, wherein they show that the forecasted peak intensity of the storm hasn't really changed from the 85 knot/100 mph forecast from earlier - it's just that the points on the map they choose to display now shows an implied max of 80 knots/90 mph. Three things I wish the NHC would do: i) provide a zoomed in map of the landfall area, so one can see more details (and more easily see run to run shifts), which are hard to see when looking at maps that are 2000 miles across, ii) provide a finer continuum of forecast locations/winds, so one doesn't "miss" intensity peaks (or dips) and iii) label the track maps at the points shown with the forecast wind speeds instead of the limited S/H/M labels, which aren't detailed enough. Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 However, there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward. In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at 12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Florence?

Been awhile since we've seen some actual threats...

Gotta watch out for those frog stranglers. Sorry, couldn't resist.

Been pouring here for the last 30 minutes or so, but no reports of high winds in the Metuchen/Edison area that I've seen (unlike last night). Can't wait for the return to normal weather tomorrow. Have friends at CitiField at the Foo Fighters show and they just stopped it for awhile presumably. Sucks.

Great pics tonight! Amazing how much wind, rain and damage there was on the north side of town and how trivial the storm was on the south side of town, where I live (<1 mile away). We barely got any rain or wind from either round, but so many friends had downed trees and some lost power - in fact, we had a friend come over and charge up all their devices and we gave them some ice, a cooler and some flashlights (they only had candles!). Crazy.

Here's the crazy radar estimate precip over the last 24 hours, showing an incredibly steep gradient from flooding rains in SENJ/DE to moderate rains a bit inland from the coast to just east of 95 to essentially nada along and NW of 95, which was not what was forecast. It happens. Models still all over the place for overnight through tomorrow early afternoon, but the NWS is sticking with likely heavy rains (1-2" with locally up to 5") for anyone near, along and SE of 95. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 930 PM, starting to see some increase in shower activity from the south and southwest. The water vapor imagery shows an impulse moving up across the eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia, and this feature should result in additional increases in showers especially overnight into early Saturday morning. Thunder has been rather sparse so far as shower/convection is more low-topped, however the greater chance for some thunder appears to be late tonight when some increased forcing for ascent arrives. Made some additional adjustments to the PoPs given trends and continued with the idea of a slower thunder mention northward. Otherwise, a front has lifted northward into the area from the coast. Bermuda high pressure will continue to advect a ribbon of rich tropical moisture back into the region along and south of this front as well. Meanwhile, a broad jet located to our northeast will result in broad diffluence aloft, strengthening through Saturday. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is passing by just offshore. PWats remain around 2-2.5", near climatological maxima, along with MUCAPE near 1,000 J/kg. The more robust showers and thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour. The threat for severe thunderstorms is very low. With all the cloud cover and moisture around tonight, temperatures will remain quite mild, with lows ranging from the low to mid 70s. Light southerly winds through Saturday, though winds will become light and variable at times. Guidance continues to pinpoint the heaviest rainfall potential from across portions of Delmarva and into the urban corridor through early Saturday afternoon. An additional wave of widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms is expected to impact this area beginning around daybreak Saturday through around midday. Widespread rainfall amounts near 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher amounts up to 5" possible. While much of the area has been dry recently, the rainfall rates may lead to some areas of flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. The Flood Watch remains in effect as previously issued through 2 PM Saturday to highlight this threat.

Nice, consistent guidance from the regional, shorter term models. Deluge on the 12Z NAM from 8 am to 2 pm tomorrow vs. a few nuisance showers on the RGEM (RDPS). Makes for easy forecasting, lol. Like most, hoping for the RGEM to be right - have a disc golf tourney tomorrow at Rutgers (50th annual Jersey Jam) and DG in the rain sucks.

So, let's talk about eclipse day. Long post (surprise!). After a nice homemade breakfast at our B&B in central NH (Coppertoppe), my wife and I left around 8:30 am and while heading up 93 we could see that a nice delay had started 20 miles N of us on 93 at the dreaded Franconia Notch area, where 93 goes to one lane in each direction. So we ditched off onto 112 (NW) then 116 (NE) to 93 north of the Notch and then traffic wasn't bad the rest of the way up to Pittsburg, NH, the northernmost town in NH, just about guaranteed to have clear skies and well into totality (3:15 seconds of it). Ride took about 3 hours vs. 2:20 on a typical day. We filled up the gas tank (important for later on) and headed to Buck Rub Pub & Lodge, which had great food (poutine was awesome) and had set up a viewing area outside for the event, where everyone set up their lawn chairs and blankets - with drink service! Last pic is of my wife and I and the event area on their lawn. Met some very nice people from MA/NH who were there including one who was playing a great eclipse playlist on the outdoor speaker they had and her nephew had an amazing photo/video setup and allowed us to take a few pics of his viewfinder. Shared the best one here, below, which shows the "diamond ring" feature and shared one of my crappy pics of the ecipse near 75% - can't really even tell as the light "filled in" what was missing - pics weren't my main goal, though - being enveloped in the experience was. And then the main event. It was simply mind blowing watching the moon blocking more and more of the sun's rays, filling the sky with an eerie, high contrast light that kept dwindling and slowly lowering the ambient temperature. I had experienced about 75% totality in 2017 and that was cool, but not "amazing" - however, "amazing" can't hold a candle to what we saw, especially at that moment the eclipse went from 99.9% to 100.0% and everything went mostly dark (not pitch black, but like 25-30 minutes after sunset) and it was about 10F cooler than the ~55F temp before the eclipse with everything becoming quite still and silent. It was breathtaking, including the otherworldly pink prominence, made of hot plasma extending several "Earths" from the sun's surface - the pic below shows it and we hope the guy we met will share his photos of that soon. Totality >>>>>>> Partial. We decided to hang out with our new friends for awhile after the eclipse was over, including an impromptu karaoke eclipse session, featuring my wife belting out "Me and My Bobby McGee" with the our new friends. Was actually quite well done! With things winding down by about 5:30 pm we left for our B&B, hoping waiting would allow traffic to clear some. Nope. Then began our 8.25 hour odyssey across NH/VT - there's an entertaining Reddit thread linked below on this. We were expecting it to be maybe 4-6 hours given the huge numbers of people heading back to wherever they came from , but this became a serious cluster, as the NHDOT really screwed things up from I've heard and read. It took maybe 3 hours to get down towards Bethlehem, NH, via 120/2/135/116/142 - all back roads since US3 and I-93 were parking lots, partly due to the old Franconia Notch bottleneck. It then got worse as they closed exits 39 and 38 off of 93 because they supposedly didn't want some of the rural side roads being overrun and even closed some of those small roads all of which led to it taking some people 5-6 hours to navigate <5 miles of 93 at the Notch and led us to waste 3 more hours moving about 5 miles, just trying to even get to 93 near there - with cell service being largely out greatly exacerbating the problem, as one couldn't figure out what alternates were closed/open/moving. People were reportedly peeing anywhere off the road they could (or in cups) and many simply got out of their cars, while others ran out of gas. Complete shitshow - that ~3 hour segment was the worst traffic I've ever been stuck in. Ever. And luck played a huge role, given the lack of cell service, as one couple staying at our B&B only took about 5 hours to get back from Pittsburg (they went more west through VT staying further from 93), while another couple at our B&B took over 9 hours to get back from Coleyville which is15 miles south of Pittsburg, plus they left right after the eclipse. Fortunately, we did hit an open gas station after about 4 hours of slow driving and were able to use their bathroom (with a line of about 20 in it) and then made one good decision 6 hours into our ordeal, as we decided, after moving 2 miles in 2 hours approaching 142, that we would take 142N just to be moving instead of trying to brave 142S to 93S, which we heard took people 3-4 hours to negotiate - and then we get into the clear got some cell service and noticed that we might be able to take 302E then 116S, then 113W (all through the White Mountain National Forest) to bypass 93 and get to our B&B in Hebron. It actually worked with my wife doing yeoman work on the navigation and me somehow surviving that much driving and it "only" took 2.25 hrs vs. the 3-4 it likely would've taken if we had tried to get to 93. They should've implemented "contraflow" like they do in hurricane evacuations, reversing flow on 93N (for about 8 miles) to give 2 lanes heading south - would've likely averted at least some of the mess and 93 and the side roads. Oh well. Fortunately, we made it home in ~6.25 hrs this afternoon (vs. 5.25 hrs heading up on Sunday). Having said all that, I'm sure we'll get over that crappy drive and always treasure experiencing a total eclipse. See you all in Spain in 2026 for the next one (or Greenland). https://www.reddit.com/r/newhampshire/comments/1bzjjoy/what_fing_rrd_decided_that_preventing_traffic/

Left the Plymouth area around 8.30 am just when the 93 slowdown was starting at Franconia Notch where 93 goes to 1 lane each way and ditched off 93 20 min later when that delay had ballooned to 25 min and building. Took 112 to 116 which was 20 min slower than a clear 93 would've been but probably saved us 20 min and was quite scenic. Got to Pittsburg in 2.45 and just had a great meal at Buck's which includes free parking and drink service outside during the eclipse. Nice. 93 looks like a parking lot now. Not a cloud in the sky. Let's go!

We "flew" up from NJ this morning, leaving at 6 am, with very little traffic, going the 341 miles in 5 hours. The B&B is very nice and did not gouge us at all. Had time to drive through Franconia Notch as a side trip and then did a drive up through the Kancamagus Pass in the White Mts - gorgeous with ~2 feet of snow on the ground still at 2000-3000' in elevation, consisting of about 6-8" of soft remaining snow from a few days ago, on top of maybe 12-15" of icy/crusty hard pack (vs. just a few inches at 1000' or so at our B&B, all of which melted during the mild day). Still debating Newport VT vs. Pittsburg NH, but the latest NBM and 18Z Euro have me nervous, so leaning heavily towards Pittsburg, which is 45 miles east of Newport, giving us some cushion. Not a bad view from the huge suite at Coppertoppe NH B&B (nice folks who run it and they didn't price gouge at all)...and here's a nice snow pic from Kancamagus...

Wow, we hit no traffic there about 2.5 hours ago - or on the whole ride from NJ, leaving at 6 am.

We "flew" up from NJ this morning, with very little traffic, going the 341 miles in 5 hours. Now safely ensconced in our B&B after an awesome breakfast at Gilly's in Bristol. Will likely do Franconia Notch as a side trip this afternoon unless traffic picks up too much. Still debating Newport (Nearby Jay Peak is open for the eclipse with free parking if you get there early) vs. Pittsburg - if clouds look iffy to the west, we'll pick Pittsburg as it's 45 miles east of Newport. Not a bad view from the huge suite at Coppertoppe B&B...

Thanks for the intel. Actually, our B&B is in North Hebron but was saying Plymouth as it's the nearest "city." Had heard of this section of 93 being gorgeous, so was actually looking forward to going that way, which is why we were hoping leaving by 8 am would be early enough to avoid bad traffic. That gets us to the Notch around 8:30 am and to Pittsburg by 10:30 am if traffic is reasonable - we're prepared to just hang around for a few hours at our destination before the event (and after) and will have plenty of food and beverages and I even still have my old Rand McNally Road Atlas as backup, lol. We'll be up earlier checking traffic and if it is looking bad earlier than 8 am, we'll just leave earlier. And if it looked really bad at the Notch, we'd go around it on 25/116 back to 91/3 in Franconia (adds 25 min, but could be worth it). We also would probably rather go to Newport, VT, but have been worried about how close the clouds come to there - if it looks good on Monday am, we'd likely go there and can take 91 instead of 93. It also helps that we're retired so it's really not a big deal to us to go early to avoid traffic or to wait a few hours after the event to leave, since we don't have to be anywhere (we have the B&B Monday night too)

Yes, meant center line - I just want to be reasonably close to it so that we get totality for 3+ minutes and all of the locations you and I have mentioned are over 3 minutes of totality (vs. 3:33 of totality, roughly, along the center line) - Pittsburg is 3:13.

Just spoke to the owner of the BuckRubPub in Pittsburg, NH (3 min 14 sec of totality vs. 3:34 along the center line of totality) and he said it's going to be a madhouse - first come first served to get into the pub and their parking, but he did say there was parking available. You can see some on the map as it is a small town of 800 with some businesses, but I saw a story where they were planning for anywhere from 5000 to 20,000 people and were worried about any more than 5-6K. I could also see the forecasts for clouds sending people in NY/VT east... https://www.facebook.com/buckrubpub

We're heading to a B&B in Plymouth early tomorrow and then had always figured it would be a Monday morning decision on where to go from there. The past few days we were also thinking Newport, NH, as it looked clearer than further west, like Burlington and is still pretty close to totality, but we're also not happy with the cloud trends and have been thinking of Pittsburg, NH, which is about 15 miles NE of Colebrook. Another possibility is heading another 15 miles all the way up Rt. 3 to the border at Connecticut Lake State Forest, as it's a bit closer to totality, but I have zero idea how that road would be and if there's somewhere good to watch near there - no obvious towns and the one campground (Deer Mountain Campground about 4 miles from the border) says it's temporarily closed, but I think that's just because their camping season doesn't start until May. My guess is one could just pull over and trudge through the snow to what looks like a nice clearing (we have nice chairs, lol) or maybe the US Customs folks won't mind people parking near there and watching. No idea and not even sure who to ask (NH Parks/Rec is closed, lol). And if the clouds really move further east, I guess we may have to go somewhere in Maine, but anywhere near totality, like Coburn Gore or Jackman will add a few hours to the trip, since there's no fast/easy way there - it's about 2:20 from Plymouth to Pittsburg, but it's 4:00 to Coburn Gore and 4:50 to Jackman and that's if traffic isn't bad. I imagine thousands of others are pondering these same questions. My wife's already not happy about a 2:20 drive from our B&B, so a 4+ hour drive won't go over much better, lol, but I might have to put my foot down on this one, as I really want a good shot at clear skies (I know there's no guarantee as 5 minutes of clouds in front of the sun at totality could happen on a 95% clear day).

Exactly why I'm deciding where to go on Sunday afternoon, after the 12Z models come out. And even then, one can have a "sunny" forecast, but clouds could crop up just at the point of the eclipse ruining the blocked sun visual (but not all the other cool effects of daytime darkness). And areas forecast to have clouds could simply get lucky for 5-10 minutes. It's going to be a bit of a crapshoot right up until totality.

That's why I said the forecast could change significantly, which is why we're keeping our options wide open...

Oddly enough, 6 days out and the best looking area, as of now, is probably VT/NH/Maine and one of the worst is Texas, which is not what climo would tell us (good friends of mine are departing for Texas shortly for the eclipse and a week of vacation), although we know this can change significantly over the next several days. All three sources below are fairly similar on this (I'm guessing the Times and AccuWeather are both using the NWS NBM for cloud cover, but not sure). We're continuing with our plan of waiting until the day before to make a decision on where to go within fairly easy driving distance, i.e., roughly between about Cleveland (~7.5 hrs/470 miles) and Jackman Maine (~8 hr/500 miles), with Watertown, NY being the closest point of totality (~5 hrs/310 miles), although we'd likely pick a bit north of Burlington VT as our top choice if Burlington and Watertown were looking both clear (north of BTV is ~5.5 hr/340 miles). We'd then drive close to that destination Sunday afternoon/evening, stay in a hotel and then drive the rest of the way Monday morning to some point of totality (right on the center line if possible). https://www.accuweather.com/en/sola...orecast-what-will-the-weather-be-like/1636042 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/science/solar-eclipse-cloud-cover-forecast-map.html