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RU848789

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  1. RU848789
    As of 10:20 am, we're up to 2.5" OTG, which continues our 1.5" per hour rate and it's still 31F. While the ratio is decent with good dendrites, the snow is wet enough to pack well, so it's almost snowman time, lol.
  2. RU848789
    As of 9:50 am we have 1.75" on the ground, which is 1.5" per hour rates and it's down to 31F. Snowing moderately to heavily now (smaller flakes, so probably lower ratios now).
  3. RU848789
    Woke up at 8:50 am and went from light snow and a coating to 1" by 9:20 am - that's about 3/4" in the past 30 minutes. Literally pouring huge gorgeous supersaturation-omega-3-fatty-acid snowflakes!! Down to 32F with roads covered. Looks like this could overperform vs. the 0Z models last night, which would be sweet.
  4. RU848789
    And we got another 1/2" of very light fluffy snow from late evening through the overnight, so that brings me to 18.0' for this storm, which is just shy of my 19" prediction made on Saturday, but I'll take it. That last 1/2" was gone by 10 am though and I think the storm is finally over after 2 days of major snow and 2 more days of lingering light snow. Simply an amazing event.
  5. RU848789
    Thanks for the intel and insight. Really good point about the models not being static, as they're upgraded fairly frequently (although some of the updates are minor from what I've read), so it probably gets difficult to get a large enough sample size of east coast snowstorms before the next change is made. But if WPC keeps stats, it would be cool to see them.
  6. RU848789
    That last band of moderate to heavy snow delivered a 1/2" of snow, so we're up to 17.5" for the storm.
  7. RU848789
    Got another 1/2" since midnight to bring me to 17.0", but I see many others who saw 1-2" not far away; 32F right now in Metuchen and snowing lightly. Does anyone have the radar loop for overnight - I used to use the RU weather site, but it seems to be dead right now. Thanks.
  8. RU848789
    Last post of the night on the storm. As of midnight, we now have 16.5", as we got another 1/2" over the last 3 hours. Radar has quieted down, although models are still showing several more inches of snow being possible through tomorrow. We'll see.
  9. RU848789
    And just got in from our fourth and maybe last shoveling - can't imagine doing it all at once. Anyway, From 5 pm to 9 pm we got another 1.0 inches! That brings us up to 16.0". It's been snowing fairly lightly, but with temps still slightly below freezing (31F) and at night, every flake accumulates. I could see getting another inch or so overnight, looking at the radar and the HRRR.
  10. RU848789
    Great post and I post on a couple of message boards as kind of a non-met "expert" on weather and most of these folks don't have a science background and the vitriol I get directly (and mets whose info I post there get indirectly) is something to see. So many think meteorologists suck and should be able to forecast everythng correctly - way worse than anything seen here or other weather boards (moderation can work, lol). I share stats on how much forecasting has improved and try to show how tough forecasting snow is compared to everything else, but some simply don't care. I think some just like to yell "Bust!" lol. The other thing I try to share is the extension of the Arrhenius Effect - below is the gist of it from elsewhere. "This is a thermodynamic constraint. Air at about 30C, typical in the summertime, holds almost 10X as much moisture as air around 0C, typical in the winter. This is an extension of the Arrhenius Effect, a rule of thumb in which reaction rates/chemical activity doubles with every 10C rise in temperature; very similar with moisture content in air. That's why, for example, it's possible to get several inches of rain in an hour in a t-storm, equivalent to several feet of snow in an hour, which is simply impossible in winter - max snowfall rates are more typically several inches per hour (i.e., we're talking about a roughly 10:1 precip ratio max in summer vs. winter). The ~10X higher energy/moisture levels in the summertime atmosphere are also why things like summertime t-storms are impossible to predict in location and time in advance - it's both a mesoscale issue (smaller than the modeling grid spacing) and an energy/chaos issue - the uncertainty levels in the models even just a few hours in the future go through the roof when the energy is 10X greater. Just imagine if we could get 3 feet of snow in an hour in Newark and no snow in NYC? Talk about complaining, lol. Well, that's what happens in the summer with convective mesoscale systems and nobody seems to care much."
  11. RU848789
    Just got in from shoveling #3. As of 5 pm in Metuchen, it's 31F and there was about 1.5" on the board, since 1 pm when and I do I cleared it and I double checked depths (in about a dozen spots with ranges from 13-17", not including drifts - have some 2-foot drifts) and they generally increased about 1-2" or so, so that brings my total to 15.0". Pretty damn good, but it hurts to see all that snow to the north and the west and SW. But we did better than folks to the SW and some to our W, so not going to complain too much. Just would've been cool to see those 2" per hour rates for more than 2-3 hours. Still not confident in getting the 4-7" the NWS "promised" me at 4 pm, lol.
  12. RU848789
    NWS just just gave hope for many, as they updated all their warnings/advisories (edited to make it legible). Wish they would've put together a map of snowfall still to come, but this says it in text form, but they did at least update the overall event map, so if you know what you have, you can see what they think is coming, by difference. 4-7" more for all of CNJ. Not sure I'm buying it, but we'll see. Would also be nice for all the snow weenies in the Philly/SNJ/Trenton areas who have gotten shafted so far get at least some more. https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter4-7" more for Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks4-8" more fo Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester7-10" more for Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton3-5" more for Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington3-6" more for New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlingtonhttps://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
  13. RU848789
    Cleared the board after the changeover to sleet at 1 pm with that last measurement and have had about 1/2" of mostly sleet since then, so up to 14.0" as of 3 pm; we're back to light snow at 30F. HRRR still has most of E-PA/CNJ N of 276/195 getting 4-6" more through late evening (HRRR did well with showing the sleet that other models missed) and 2-4" south of there down through Philly over to LBI. Key question is whether we get that precip or the dreaded dry slot and if the rest of the precip will be snow, assuming we get it.
  14. RU848789
    Had light/moderate snow from about 11 am to noon then some heavy snow until close to 1 pm, when I measured 13.5" on average (wide variation) and then the sleet started in earnest and it's been mostly sleet with some snow at times since 1 pm. Same thing happened in Jan-16 cutting a few inches off the snowfall. Souds like the snow is moving back east towards us. NWS still calling for 6-8" more through this evening. My 19" call is still in range if we go back to snow. 29F here in Metuchen.
  15. RU848789
    This next band is now projectile vomting dendrites in my back yard, lol...going to skip the noon measurement, since I need a shower and am still wet from shoveling and measuring and walking around, lol...
  16. RU848789
    Just went for a walk in that insane snowfall and measured about 12" (tough with the blowing - 12" is the average of about 10 measurements in the back yard, which varied from about 10" to 14" - 2 are on my board, but the board becomes less useful with the wind). That would make about 2" in the last hour, which seems about right given how heavily the snow was falling for that last hour. Since about 11 am, the intensity has dropped off a bit to moderate snowfall (probably 1" per hour stuff). Temp up to 28F.
  17. RU848789
    OMFG, look at this radar snapshot from 10 am - that's 40-45DBZ over my house and insane rates over Somerset County. Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen for the past 15-20 minutes. Was at 8.5" at 7 am, then 8.75" at 8 am (not much that hour), but then up to 9.5" at 9 am and 10.5" at 10 am and at the rate it's been falling since 10 am, I'm guessing we'll have close to 12" by 11 am. Shoveling (2nd shovel - my son shoveled at 10 pm after about 4") took me from about an hour. Hard work, but so nice being outside in it. Walked around a bit afterwards taking my measurements and just enjoying it.
  18. RU848789
    Yeah, I recall that, which is part of why I picked that time to snooze!
  19. RU848789
    Didn't get that much overnight while I snoozed. Went from 7.0" at 2 am to 8.5" at 7 am. From what the NWS discussion said, sounds like there was a lull, which was underway when I went to sleep around 2:30 am, plus some sleet/freezing rain fell with the lighter precip. Snowing moderately right now at 28F. Let's see if we get the 13=14" additional inches my point-and-click forecast says for Metuchen, which would be within the 12-18" the NWS map shows for 7 am through tomorrow for our swath in the map below (and close to the 13" of additional snow shown for nearby New Brunswick) from 7 am until the end, which would give me 21-22" total. I like the "expected snowfall" maps from 7 am this morning through 7 am Weds (with most of it today, obviously), but wish they'd also include a "storm total" graphic.
  20. RU848789
    Just went for a "JebWalk" - a beautiful night in the snow. Up to 7.0" here in Metuchen as of 2 am and yes, it's still 23F. Snow has been very light the last 20 minutes or so and the radar looks spotty for awhile, so this could be a good time to nap.
  21. RU848789
    Snow was a bit lighter the last hour, so as of 1 am we have 6.5" in Metuchen (1/2" last hour) and it's still 23F. I'm guessing this stuff is 15:1 ratio snow, since I've been able to "shovel" it with a broom.
  22. RU848789
    Another inch the last hour, so we're up to 6.0" as of 12:00 am in Metuchen. Still 23F.
  23. RU848789
    This may also be obvious, but I'm hyped up on snow fumes, lol. With 5" down here and in many other locations in CNJ (and other locations, like EPA and soon in NNJ/NYC), at the rate we're going, we should have 7-9" by 7 am (6 hours), assuming 2-4" more by then. And if the coastal cranks up and delivers the 10-14" of heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm shown by all of the models, some are going to see totals of 17-23" by 7 pm Monday with another 3-5" forecast after 7 pm by most models - that could get some to 20-28", which would easily be top 5-10 for this area (at least for the 95 corridor; well inland has had more big storms than that), as there have been 7 storms over 20" in NYC (and 11 over 18") in 151 years of record-keeping. At this point, IMO, 12" is a lock for almost all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC (except the immediate NJ coast) and 18" is likely and 24" is very possible - barring some unforseen changeover or dry slot or nuts shooting lasers at the sky to kill the snow.
  24. RU848789
    As of 11 pm, we're up to 5.0" in Metuchen, with the heavist snowfall of the night - 1" last hour. Still 23F.
  25. RU848789
    Ripping snow right now - on the edge of heavy, but not quite there. Still heaviest snow of the night so far. 25-30 DBZ now.
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