RU848789

As of 5:00 am, we're up to 3.5", but wth only 3/4" the last hour; 27F still. Snowing moderately to heavily with larger flakes again. Should at least get to 4", but not sure about my 4.75" prediction. Great storm so far!

As of 4:00 am we have 2.75" OTG (1.5" last hour) and it's 27F. Snow just went from heavy back to moderate with smaller flakes - hopefully just a lull.

Pouring legitimately heavy snow right now with visibility definitely <1/4 mile - probably about 3/16 of a mile...

Just took a nice Jebwalk - spectacular out thre folks! As of 3:00 am here in Metuchen we have 1.25" OTG for 1" the past hour and it's snowing somewhere between moderately and heavily with gorgeous mostly large (1/2" to 1" across) fluffy dendrites. If we can keep this up for aonther 4-5 hours, we'll make my 4.75" prediction.

As of 2:00 am, measured 1/4" on the ground (the comment above was eyeballed). Temp dropped from 31 to 28F over the last 20 minutes with the snow falling and cooling the column. Snow is fairly dry and is a mix of small and medium dendrites (plates mostly).

Quickly up to moderate snow here now and a solid 1/4" on the ground. Gonna be a fun night, especially since I bought a new 5000 lumens portable spotlight, which I put in the backyard aimed kind of at our house and it's working great for me to see the falling snowflakes from my recliner, instead of having to get up and look at the snow falling in the street lights - only took me 29 years to get one, lol.

And coming down lightly to moderately already with a light dusting on the ground and 31F. Pretty flakes - very nice dendrites - should be good ratio snow...

Flakes are flying (ever so lightly, but should pick up soon) in Metuchen. Let the games begin!

Great stuff Walt - this is why it's so great to have a pro like you (and many others) on the board. Also, look at that graphic vs. the radar composite - fairly decent match...

In case nobody updated this (haven't checked), FYI, forecast for flooding for the Raritan increased to just about the same record level seen for Floyd in 1999, at least at Bound Brook, peaking around 1-2 pm, then declining, as per the graphic. Let's hope Bound Brook, in particular, can handle this (although evacuations have been ordered - let's hope the mitigations they put in place keep it less severe than back then). Flooding on the Delaware at Lambertville will reach moderate flood stage (looks the same as last night's prediction) and will reach major stage on the Passaic at Little Falls, as per the graphics below (the link allows anyone to look at predicted flood levels for any river in the area). Most roads have improved and are reopening, but not River Rd or 18 and 1 in many locations, especially near streams/rivers. Horrible storm with so many tragic outcomes (8 dead in NY/NJ, so far and incredible damage all over). Nobody could've anticipated 8-12" of rain and so many tornadoes, even with predictions of 3-6" of rain and possible severe storms. https://water.weather.gov/ahps/region.php?rfc=marfc Also, my very good friend is a firefighter in Hillsborough (certainly my personal hero for today) and was doing water rescues all night, but they couldn't reach 2 who died, as per the report linked below. Helicopter rescues being made in some towns in NJ and more are missing. Just tragic. https://www.nj.com/weather/2021/09/nj-weather-2-people-die-in-submerged-vehicles-in-hillsborough-during-ida-flooding.html

Latest Raritan flooding forecast is several feet less than it was for Floyd, which had record flooding on the Raritan. Will still be major flooding, though according to the graphic, assuming that graphic is correct.

Walt - any thoughts on river flooding levels for the Raritan and other major rivers? Floyd type levels or less. Seems like there was a bit more rain in Floyd (10-14" common in the Raritan watershed vs. 7-10" now, by my quick inspection), but antecedent conditions before Floyd were much drier, so maybe it'll be close.

Over the last 12 hours (mostly the last 3-5 hours) we've seen 5-10" of rain almost everywhere along and west of the NJTPK from Wilmington DE (and back to DC/Balt, really) through Woodbridge, with the worst of it in western NJ and eastern PA. NYC/NE NJ will have 5-10" soon, as they just got a later start; just about 5" here in Metuchen with much more on the way. Incredible gradient on the radar estimated rainfall from NW to SE in NJ with <1" for most areas near the coast. Incredible.

Simply unprecedented severe storms/tornadoes and not quite unprecedented rainfall, but looking like as much as Floyd, Irene and what we saw for Henri in spots. Long night - we have some water entering into our basement through our window well windows (the usual path for us in the worst storms), so not posting much - so far, nothing the French drain can't handle, but if it gets much worse, might need to use the portable sump pump. Be careful out there. No more current tornado warnings, which is good - the rain is bad enough...

All of the 12Z global/regional models have measurable precip over by 2 pm Thursday, with some over by 8 am to 11 am (except the Euro which isn't in yet). For selfish reasons (our RU football tailgate starts around 2 pm and the game is at 6:30 pm), I'm hoping that verifies. I won't love wet grass and maybe some mud, but it's way better than falling rain. Looks like the afternoon and evening could end up being very nice in Piscataway. Any comments on rainfall end time? Thanks!!

I would assume the water pumps have backup generators...

Dr. Knabb (former NHC Director) was just on TWC saying the exact same thing about how hard it is to predict tracks without having a closed circulation, but obviously he also is worried about this one, since there is some chance it could become a very dangerous storm in the Gulf.

Not sure if this has been posted, but look at the radar-indicated rainfall in parts of CNJ and NYC/NENJ, especially southern Middlesex (over 9" in Cranbury) and parts of Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean, and Burlington. Nuts.

Very surprised the NHC didn't upgrade SE MA, the Islands and at least the south facing shore of Cape Cod to hurricane warnings, as they're closer to the center of the track than western Suffolk County - and they're to the east of the center, which should see greater winds/storm surge. Just don't get it.

Yep, another 30 miles west, moving from about Southampton to Sayville since 5 pm. Was at the CT/RI border at 11 am and was at Newport at 5 am, so quite a change in 18 hours. Only 55 miles from Manhattan, so 2 more nudges west. If you had asked me yesterday if I thought NYC was really at risk I would've said it was theoretically possible, but not happening. Hmmm...

Love when Dr. Knabb (former NHC Director) is on TWC analyzing tropical systems. He's seeing strong signs of strengthening, as others here have: better outflow, improved convection, less shear, better organization. He's concerned it'll go above the 85 mph forecast and has concerns about how far west the storm goes - and where it stalls and heads west a bit - if that happens sooner, then NYC is at significant risk of a direct hit or close call and if later, the amount of rain we might see in parts of interior New England and NY State could be biblical.

lol...or if we consider Schroedinger's cat, we shouldn't bother ever making a forecast, since the act of making a forecast destroys the forecast...

Anywhere to get a good graphic on rainfall over the past week or for July to date for our area? Thanks. iweathernet has a radar composite map for up to the past 72 hours, but not further out than that...

They don't make a measurement when the precip changes? They're supposed to... If snow and rain are mixed and there is snow that accumulates, report the precipitation (melted) in the gauge as your daily precipitation, and report the maximum accumulation of the new snow as Snowfall. If the snow is likely to melt before the official observation time, it is best to measure the depth of the new snow as soon as possible after the snow ends before it has a chance to melt. Be sure to include that you had mixed precipitation in your comments. https://www.weather.gov/coop/Forms-Manuals-Equipment

Started mixing around 12:45 with rain, so I measured and got 1.75"; since then it's been mostly rain (not sleet, as the dual pol indicates it might be) with some flakes mixed in. That might be it for us, unless it's an intensity issue, but that's all bonus snow. Still 33F.