RU848789

As of about 9:35, we're up to 1"!! Coming down close to moderately at 30F. Didn't expect to have an inch until 11-12, so feels like we're ahead of schedule.

??

As of 9 pm, we only picked up another 1/8" since 8:30 pm, as the snow let up, meaning we have 5/8". However, the radar is looking great and intensity just picked up and it's coming down nicely. Also, so far the snow that's falling is easily 15-20:1 snow to liquid, with very nicely formed dendrites making a nice fluffy snow. Not sure how long that will last, but if we can retain this kind of crystal growth in the DGZ once the precip gets heavier, we could pile up some snow quickly during the first half of the night - one of the pros on 33 said he thought we'd retain good snow growth through the first half of the storm. Down to 30F.

Wow, isn't that what already half of what you were supposed to get for the whole storm (3-6")?

As of 9 pm, we only picked up another 1/8" since 8:30 pm, as the snow let up, meaning we have 5/8". However, the radar is looking great and intensity just picked up and it's coming down nicely. Also, so far the snow that's falling is easily 15-20:1 snow to liquid, with very nicely formed dendrites making a nice fluffy snow. Not sure how long that will last, but if we can retain this kind of crystal growth in the DGZ once the precip gets heavier, we could pile up some snow quickly during the first half of the night - one of the pros on another board said he thought we'd retain good snow growth through the first half of the storm. Down to 30F.

We got what looks to be a nice bonus band that was really thin and just happened to come right over us (see pic - Edison, by 287/TPK) from about 7:40 until 8:20 as per the pic and it put down our first 1/2" as of about 8:25 pm. Everything covered, including roads, as I was just out to get takeout (Fire and Flavor - yum!). 31F.

Been snowing lightly in Metuchen since about 7:10 pm - a new dusting after 1/4" earlier today, which was gone. 32F. C'mon, want to get my predicted 8.25"!

One more try: @wdrag@SnowGoose69@forkyfork or anyone who might know? Anyone? Bueller?

@wdrag@SnowGoose69@forkyfork or anyone who might know: does anyone know whether the NWS uses ratios (Kuchera or other) in constructing their snowfall maps or if they just use 10:1? With the latest NWS-Philly maps being so bullish, it makes me think they're factoring in something like 15:1 ratios, so 8-12" of 10:1 snow becomes 12-18" at 15:1, for the immediate coast, for example. Thanks!

You wouldn't happen to have the 12Z NBM map would you? TIA...

Got a nice little dusting in Metuchen this evening on all surfaces (it's <29F) like most have in the region - some could get up to 1/2" in the 95 corridor and towards the coast and could be an inch or so N of 78 in Somerset/Hunterdon and the Lehigh Valley and up to 2" in the Poconos/far NWNJ, according to the NWS. Sneaky little clipper. It could get slippery tonight/overnight, especially N of 78. It's very light/fluffy snow, by the way. Need to measure, but the Bills-Chiefs game is enthralling...https://www.weather.gov/phi/

This AFD was when we knew we might be in trouble and it just got worse from there. Didn't help that the 0Z models were showing anything from 0 to 5" of snow just hours before the event started - we don't usually see that bad of a spread that close to an event. I know there's more to forecasting than picking the right model or following a blend, but this had to be a tough one for the pros and I can see why one would've forecast 1-2" - and been wrong.

GFS Cat 3 Snowicane on the 12Z run today, days 8/9 - it's a lock, lol...

Intensity let up a bit and as of 10:30 am,we have a whole 1/4" and the radar looks weak to our SW, so I think it's time to officially declare this a bust... The 1/4" did bring my seasonal snowfall up to 7.0".

As of 10 am, 3/16" OTG (yes, a very careful measurement, lol) and moderate snowfall at 32F; snow accumulating on all surfaces

We now officially have a dusting, lol... Temps did drop quickly, though - down to 32F, so we have a chance at getting some accumulation now.

Rates have been too light the last 45 minutes to accumulate with 33-34F temps, so we've lost a good 1-2 hours of snow to rain and then melting vs. the forecast, so I'd be surprised to see many get more than 1". Snowfall rate just picked up in the last few minutes though - it's now or never...

Well after 30 min of light snow, it's just starting to stick on colder surfaces, so accumulations should now commence, as it's 33F, although at this rate an inch would probably be the best I could hope for, unless rates jump up.

Just flipped here in Metuchen 1 minute ago - dropped from 37F to 34F over the last 15 minutes or so. Hope we can squeeze out an inch or two...

Was worried about a later changeover and less snow - definitely could bust low, although the NWS didn't change their advisories/maps... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 526 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 515 AM...We`ve made some adjustments to the forecast grids as the colder air is taking a little longer to move in. Somewhat diffuse cold front currently located over eastern PA and slowly pushing south/east but most of the region still in the mid 30s or warmer at this time with rain. Cold advection is underway though in the boundary layer and still expect a change from rain to snow from NW to SE over the next several hours as precip continues to move north and along the front. The change over from rain to snow should occur by around sunrise from Berks County extending north and northeast through the Lehigh Valley into northern NJ and by mid morning (8am-9am timeframe) across the I-95 corridor. This is about one to three hours later than previously forecast. Snow will continue for several hours through the morning centered roughly near the I-95 corridor. This will not be a big snowstorm and for the most part the rates should be on the lighter side however there will be the potential for periods of moderate snow to set up here right around mid morning as the best forcing associated with the F-Gen and upper jet dynamics moves through. The precip should then come to an end NW to SE around the late morning / early afternoon time frame as colder, drier air continues to advect in on N/NW winds. It will last a bit longer though over southern Delmarva and coastal New Jersey but these areas will also take a bit longer to change from rain to snow. In terms of snowfall accumulation, generally expect 1-2 inches within the area under the Winter Weather Advisory. Over the southern Poconos and near the coast amounts will be a bit lower...generally a coating up to an inch. The warmest temps of the day will be in the early morning as temps will fall behind the front. By early afternoon most areas will be in the 20s to low 30s with temps falling further through the 20s beyond this time. As N/NW winds increase to 10-15 mph (with higher gusts) this will make it feel even colder.

Updated NWS snowfall maps - they're still calling for 1-3", especially near/along 95. If it's not snowing by about 7 am along 95, it could bust on the low side...looks like rain/snow line by radar is from Allentown to Bedminster to Yonkers - anyone?

Not sure I've ever seen this much model disagreement just hours before a fairly minor event starts in a long time. We could get nada or 5" in the Philly-NYC area...I'll go with 2" at my house, but hope the GFS is right and I get about 3.5".

Fair point, thanks. However, the NAM, itself is showing precip significantly further N/W than its previous run at the same point. There were also plenty of 500 mb changes that looked good on the NAM too - as well as the GFS, as per brooklyn. My point wasn't that this would be a Euro type run, but that it looks like we've made steps closer to a storm that could bring some snow to the 95 corridor and especially the coast as opposed to a complete miss.

To me, the 0Z NAM at 12Z Saturday, looks kind of like the 0Z Euro from last night (the last bomb for DC to Boston) at 06 Saturday, 6 hours earlier, i.e., just 12 hours slower (and with lighter precip). And that's just looking at the outcome at the surface without analyzing the upper air - is it possible the next 18 hours of this NAM run would've progressed similarlly to that Euro run, at least with regard to track, if not intensity? Things are at least interesting again...

Up until about 36 hours before the event. Here's what I wrote to my email list at 2 am on Christmas Day after the 0Z models came out. We were in Charlotte for Christmas visiting my mom and my sister's family. After the 12Z Christmas models confirmed the big change, I decided we were leaving 2 days early to get back to Jersey in time for the storm, so we left around 7 pm after Christmas dinner. Was already snowing heavily in NC, so it was a white knuckle ride for about 3 hours before we outran the storm by the time we got to about Henderson, NC. Got home around 7 am, played soccer at 8 am, napped for a couple of hours and settled in for possibly my favorite storm ever, given the tracking and driving fun, lol (we got 23-24"). Can we get a kind of repeat? In a remarkable turn of events, every major model is now showing a significant (3-6") to major (6-12") snowfall for just about the entire Philly to Boston corridor, with historic snowfall amounts of over a foot possible from about Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Lesser amounts look likely well N/W of the Delaware River and to the SW of Philly (i.e., Balt/DC); some mixing of rain/sleet is also possible along the South Jersey coast and eastern Long Island, but that would only cut down on snowfall a little bit (in fact, LI may end up being the jackpot with 1-2 feet of snow, if this all pans out). I'm not even going to try to explain any of this, since this is nearly unprecedented and I think a couple of quotes (see the 2nd link from American Weather - around pages 23-28) from some well-known pros will say far more than I can. First, here's what Hurricane Schwartz, a very well known TV met in Philly said on the American Weather board (the one that replaced the Eastern Weather board) just prior to going on air tonight: "I'll be on at 11 with a First Call. I'm still confused, but have to go with something. We just can't ignore this new 00z data." Basically his way of throwing up his hands and saying he really has no clue what to tell people given the model mayhem over the previous day (this was before the results from the UKMET and Euro models had come out late tonight, showing these models now coming into agreement with the GFS, Canadian and NAM models). Second, here's what Craig Allen, another well respected pro on TV/radio in NYC just posted: ** Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS.