RU848789

Thanks for sharing your insights and observations/videos/pics - fantastic stuff. And thanks, also, for showing decency and humanity when interacting with people whose lives and livelihoods are at risk and sometimes totally destroyed and not treating them like a photo op. Sad that not all chasers take that approach.

Thought I tried that before and it didn't work; have the same issue on FB, but not two message boards I post to. Trying it below and as I'm pasting the two URL versions, I see exactly what you said about the tweet being visible in the draft post. Edit: it worked! Thanks so much - I had googled how to do this and didn't really get a lot of help. However, that approach doesn't work on Facebook, still - any idea how to embed tweets in FB? Thanks. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1839785589241258454?s=46&t=Nn9Cx92_8118fPdhHPdJHw

Landfall... Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1120 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HELENE MAKES LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... Based on NWS Doppler radar data, the eye of Helene has made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in the Florida Big Bend region at about 11:10 PM EDT (0310 UTC) just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River. This is about 10 miles (15 km) west-southwest of Perry, Florida. Based on data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, the maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph (225 km/h) and the minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). SUMMARY OF 1110 PM EDT...0310 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 83.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

29.9N 83.9W is just a few miles SW of the Big Bend Wildlife Mgmt area, which is SW of Perry...

Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...HURRICANE HELENE VERY CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...ACCOMPANIED BY A CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 83.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Cantore just said between Steinhatchee and Fish Creek, which is due south of Perry. We'll see soon...

Hey - just curious how you get the Twitter post to embed on this site? Pasting the URL below, hasn't been working for me. TIA. https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1839481161082392823?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1839481161082392823|twgr^d62ae3ef18d077e4023272872f8c21d9d1630f69|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fericfisher%2Fstatus%2F1839481161082392823

This is what the Skyway Bridge in Tampa looked like 5 hours ago right before it was closed - imagine being on that one. Tampa reportedly has broken the storm surge record set with Idalia, too. And Tampa isn't even that close to the storm. And Savannah, GA just had a tornado, hundreds of miles from Helene. A long night and day ahead... https://fxtwitter.com/FHPTampa/status/1839398172684370378 https://x.com/i/status/1839398172684370378 edit: for some reason twitter videos/links aren't pasting as actual embedded videos - anyone know why? Works ok on 2 other forums I post to...

Cat 3... Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

I'm talking about landfall, which the vast majority are most interested in.

It's shifted east 15-20 miles...

NHC not backing down on the Cat 4 forecast and hasn't really changed the projected track either, with landfall still likely between Apalachicola and Alligator Island tomorrow evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Helene is obviously going to be devastating for the FL coast and just inland with high winds and surge and downed trees/power outages, but the untold story of this storm, when all is said and done, might be the torrential flooding, especially well inland in GA/AL/SC/TN/NC/VA/KY and particularly for the Apps.

I wish these model plots would include the Rosetta Stone translator for the model names relative to their common names, lol...

Thankfully, for us, the models sucked terribly for this "event." Our forecast in OCNJ on Friday was for a nice Sat-Mon with rain moving in Tuesday, putting down 2-4", depending on the model. Then the start time kept getting pushed back and Tuesday turned out warm and dry, albeit mostly cloudy and we had the same thing today. Forecast was still calling for 1/2-1" tonight into Thursday, as of the early afternoon, but the latest update has decreased this to about 1/4". I know the region needs rain, but our vacation didn't, lol. And our weather here looks pretty good through at least mid next week; later next week could be pretty wet, but that's a long way off...

No!!!!!!! We're in OCNJ the next 2 weeks. At least Sat-Tues looks good...

Yep, that's about a 40 mile shift east, which is pretty significant, especially for New Orleans, if any additional shifts east occur. It's also interesting to note the bolded part below from the NHC discussion, wherein they show that the forecasted peak intensity of the storm hasn't really changed from the 85 knot/100 mph forecast from earlier - it's just that the points on the map they choose to display now shows an implied max of 80 knots/90 mph. Three things I wish the NHC would do: i) provide a zoomed in map of the landfall area, so one can see more details (and more easily see run to run shifts), which are hard to see when looking at maps that are 2000 miles across, ii) provide a finer continuum of forecast locations/winds, so one doesn't "miss" intensity peaks (or dips) and iii) label the track maps at the points shown with the forecast wind speeds instead of the limited S/H/M labels, which aren't detailed enough. Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 However, there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward. In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at 12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Florence?

Been awhile since we've seen some actual threats...

Gotta watch out for those frog stranglers. Sorry, couldn't resist.

Been pouring here for the last 30 minutes or so, but no reports of high winds in the Metuchen/Edison area that I've seen (unlike last night). Can't wait for the return to normal weather tomorrow. Have friends at CitiField at the Foo Fighters show and they just stopped it for awhile presumably. Sucks.

Great pics tonight! Amazing how much wind, rain and damage there was on the north side of town and how trivial the storm was on the south side of town, where I live (<1 mile away). We barely got any rain or wind from either round, but so many friends had downed trees and some lost power - in fact, we had a friend come over and charge up all their devices and we gave them some ice, a cooler and some flashlights (they only had candles!). Crazy.

Here's the crazy radar estimate precip over the last 24 hours, showing an incredibly steep gradient from flooding rains in SENJ/DE to moderate rains a bit inland from the coast to just east of 95 to essentially nada along and NW of 95, which was not what was forecast. It happens. Models still all over the place for overnight through tomorrow early afternoon, but the NWS is sticking with likely heavy rains (1-2" with locally up to 5") for anyone near, along and SE of 95. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 930 PM, starting to see some increase in shower activity from the south and southwest. The water vapor imagery shows an impulse moving up across the eastern Carolinas and eastern Virginia, and this feature should result in additional increases in showers especially overnight into early Saturday morning. Thunder has been rather sparse so far as shower/convection is more low-topped, however the greater chance for some thunder appears to be late tonight when some increased forcing for ascent arrives. Made some additional adjustments to the PoPs given trends and continued with the idea of a slower thunder mention northward. Otherwise, a front has lifted northward into the area from the coast. Bermuda high pressure will continue to advect a ribbon of rich tropical moisture back into the region along and south of this front as well. Meanwhile, a broad jet located to our northeast will result in broad diffluence aloft, strengthening through Saturday. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is passing by just offshore. PWats remain around 2-2.5", near climatological maxima, along with MUCAPE near 1,000 J/kg. The more robust showers and thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour. The threat for severe thunderstorms is very low. With all the cloud cover and moisture around tonight, temperatures will remain quite mild, with lows ranging from the low to mid 70s. Light southerly winds through Saturday, though winds will become light and variable at times. Guidance continues to pinpoint the heaviest rainfall potential from across portions of Delmarva and into the urban corridor through early Saturday afternoon. An additional wave of widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms is expected to impact this area beginning around daybreak Saturday through around midday. Widespread rainfall amounts near 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher amounts up to 5" possible. While much of the area has been dry recently, the rainfall rates may lead to some areas of flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. The Flood Watch remains in effect as previously issued through 2 PM Saturday to highlight this threat.

Nice, consistent guidance from the regional, shorter term models. Deluge on the 12Z NAM from 8 am to 2 pm tomorrow vs. a few nuisance showers on the RGEM (RDPS). Makes for easy forecasting, lol. Like most, hoping for the RGEM to be right - have a disc golf tourney tomorrow at Rutgers (50th annual Jersey Jam) and DG in the rain sucks.

So, let's talk about eclipse day. Long post (surprise!). After a nice homemade breakfast at our B&B in central NH (Coppertoppe), my wife and I left around 8:30 am and while heading up 93 we could see that a nice delay had started 20 miles N of us on 93 at the dreaded Franconia Notch area, where 93 goes to one lane in each direction. So we ditched off onto 112 (NW) then 116 (NE) to 93 north of the Notch and then traffic wasn't bad the rest of the way up to Pittsburg, NH, the northernmost town in NH, just about guaranteed to have clear skies and well into totality (3:15 seconds of it). Ride took about 3 hours vs. 2:20 on a typical day. We filled up the gas tank (important for later on) and headed to Buck Rub Pub & Lodge, which had great food (poutine was awesome) and had set up a viewing area outside for the event, where everyone set up their lawn chairs and blankets - with drink service! Last pic is of my wife and I and the event area on their lawn. Met some very nice people from MA/NH who were there including one who was playing a great eclipse playlist on the outdoor speaker they had and her nephew had an amazing photo/video setup and allowed us to take a few pics of his viewfinder. Shared the best one here, below, which shows the "diamond ring" feature and shared one of my crappy pics of the ecipse near 75% - can't really even tell as the light "filled in" what was missing - pics weren't my main goal, though - being enveloped in the experience was. And then the main event. It was simply mind blowing watching the moon blocking more and more of the sun's rays, filling the sky with an eerie, high contrast light that kept dwindling and slowly lowering the ambient temperature. I had experienced about 75% totality in 2017 and that was cool, but not "amazing" - however, "amazing" can't hold a candle to what we saw, especially at that moment the eclipse went from 99.9% to 100.0% and everything went mostly dark (not pitch black, but like 25-30 minutes after sunset) and it was about 10F cooler than the ~55F temp before the eclipse with everything becoming quite still and silent. It was breathtaking, including the otherworldly pink prominence, made of hot plasma extending several "Earths" from the sun's surface - the pic below shows it and we hope the guy we met will share his photos of that soon. Totality >>>>>>> Partial. We decided to hang out with our new friends for awhile after the eclipse was over, including an impromptu karaoke eclipse session, featuring my wife belting out "Me and My Bobby McGee" with the our new friends. Was actually quite well done! With things winding down by about 5:30 pm we left for our B&B, hoping waiting would allow traffic to clear some. Nope. Then began our 8.25 hour odyssey across NH/VT - there's an entertaining Reddit thread linked below on this. We were expecting it to be maybe 4-6 hours given the huge numbers of people heading back to wherever they came from , but this became a serious cluster, as the NHDOT really screwed things up from I've heard and read. It took maybe 3 hours to get down towards Bethlehem, NH, via 120/2/135/116/142 - all back roads since US3 and I-93 were parking lots, partly due to the old Franconia Notch bottleneck. It then got worse as they closed exits 39 and 38 off of 93 because they supposedly didn't want some of the rural side roads being overrun and even closed some of those small roads all of which led to it taking some people 5-6 hours to navigate <5 miles of 93 at the Notch and led us to waste 3 more hours moving about 5 miles, just trying to even get to 93 near there - with cell service being largely out greatly exacerbating the problem, as one couldn't figure out what alternates were closed/open/moving. People were reportedly peeing anywhere off the road they could (or in cups) and many simply got out of their cars, while others ran out of gas. Complete shitshow - that ~3 hour segment was the worst traffic I've ever been stuck in. Ever. And luck played a huge role, given the lack of cell service, as one couple staying at our B&B only took about 5 hours to get back from Pittsburg (they went more west through VT staying further from 93), while another couple at our B&B took over 9 hours to get back from Coleyville which is15 miles south of Pittsburg, plus they left right after the eclipse. Fortunately, we did hit an open gas station after about 4 hours of slow driving and were able to use their bathroom (with a line of about 20 in it) and then made one good decision 6 hours into our ordeal, as we decided, after moving 2 miles in 2 hours approaching 142, that we would take 142N just to be moving instead of trying to brave 142S to 93S, which we heard took people 3-4 hours to negotiate - and then we get into the clear got some cell service and noticed that we might be able to take 302E then 116S, then 113W (all through the White Mountain National Forest) to bypass 93 and get to our B&B in Hebron. It actually worked with my wife doing yeoman work on the navigation and me somehow surviving that much driving and it "only" took 2.25 hrs vs. the 3-4 it likely would've taken if we had tried to get to 93. They should've implemented "contraflow" like they do in hurricane evacuations, reversing flow on 93N (for about 8 miles) to give 2 lanes heading south - would've likely averted at least some of the mess and 93 and the side roads. Oh well. Fortunately, we made it home in ~6.25 hrs this afternoon (vs. 5.25 hrs heading up on Sunday). Having said all that, I'm sure we'll get over that crappy drive and always treasure experiencing a total eclipse. See you all in Spain in 2026 for the next one (or Greenland). https://www.reddit.com/r/newhampshire/comments/1bzjjoy/what_fing_rrd_decided_that_preventing_traffic/