RU848789

We're now getting moderate to heavy sleet here and it's down to 31F. Already a light accumulation on all surfaces, with my driveway/sidewalk and street in front of the house starting to get slick. No idea if we're going to get more sleet or ZR the next few hours, but it looks like it's going to get pretty dicey out there.

TWC is actually calling for 0.1-0.25" of ZR for most of the 95 corridor and 1/4-3/4" of ZR not far NW of 95 in eastern PA (mostly north of 276) and in NJ N of 202 - that may be overstated, but there are several models that are showing that right now, as others have posted - they typically don't overdo it on their forecasts (of course they hype what they think is going to happen, but they don't overdo what is going to happen) and I watch them pretty closely. That could be a major nightmare for overnight travel and could even lead to power outages. Hopefully, temps get above 32F anywhere near 95 by 5-6 am, limiting impact to just the overnight hours before rush hour, but the rush hour 10+ miles NW of 95 and especially N of 276 in PA and N of 202 in NJ/ will likely be impacted significantly with temps not going above 32F until mid morning for many.We have a mix of sleet and freezing rain here in Metuchen that just started getting heavier and we already have some ice on cars and trees, but not on paved surfaces yet, but that will likely occur soon with temps at 31-32F. Will be an interesting night that many won't see, lol.

Thanks!!

With temps below 32F before the event starts, for most (at least north of the Raritan/202), any snow/sleet that fall should accumulate, especially at night. Also, from an impact perspective, 1" of sleet has the same frozen mass as 3" of snow, meaning it will be just as hard to drive in (apart from not having visibility issues) and remove, so I would expect significant travel impacts for anywhere that gets at least 1" of sleet (and then maybe up to 0.1" of freezing rain) - and with temps for most of NYC metro not getting above 32F until 7-9 am, the rush hour could be impacted significantly.

Nope, I'll take a bit of snow, some sleet and a little ZR (which is much less impactful on top of snow/sleet) over rain any day...

For what it's worth, Lee Goldberg was just on and showing a futurecast that looked a lot like the GFS/NAM, i.e., a bit of snow (an inch or two for NYC), then a fair amount of sleet, then maybe a bit of ZR and then rain, but not rain until 8-9 am, which would mean a real mess on even NYC streets with temps around 32F and 1-2" of snow and 2-3" of sleet (which is 6-9" of snow equivalent) for 7-11" of snow equivalent, which makes sense as those two models are showing nearly 1" of LE by 7 am before any rain. I don't think anyone is thinking this storm will be as impactful as the GFS/NAM are showing right now for the immediate NYC/NENJ/LI area (and maybe even down into CNJ north of the Raritan/202, which would include me). Those Tidbits maps show a ton of sleet. And the CMC got "snowier" vs. 12Z, according to the Pivotal snow depth map, which I believe is mostly sleet and which I don't believe is at 3:1 ratios (maybe 5:1, since it's probably some snow and sleet); Tidbits doesn't show sleet as snow on the CMC. Hey @MGorse- you were very helpful answering my questions about how the NWS does take into account snow/liquid ratios in their snowfall forecasts a few weeks ago (as per internal calcs, not Kuchera), so thought I'd throw out another question. Does the NWS ever put out sleet accumulation forecasts or are they just folded into the snowfall forecasts at maybe 3:1 sleet:liquid ratios? I've never seen any, but maybe I've missed it. IMO, sleet is greatly underestimated by most with regard to impact, as 3" of sleet is roughly the same frozen mass as 10" of snow, both of which have about the same impact on driving (apart from visibility impacts) and snow removal - so it would be nice to have sleet maps or somehow factored in better in the snow maps. Thanks, in advance, for any insights.

Don't think I've ever missed any snow at any time of the day or night in at least 35 years, lol.

Euro jogs south a bit with the snow, but doesn't show much sleet (snow depth actually shows less than snowfall, which makes no sense).

Keep in mind (something I discuss in any setup where there could be sleet) there's quite a potential sleet signature, as per the GFS, especially, which is showing >6"+ of "10:1 ratio snow" most of which is really likely to be 3:1 ratio sleet, verbatim, looking at the Tidbits snowfall map. The Tidbits map counts all of the sleet as 10:1 snow, while the Tidbits and Pivotal snow depth maps seem like they are doing some combo of 10:1 snow and maybe 3-5:1 sleet, depending on location. It's impossible to tell exactly, which is why I often prefer the Tidbits snow/sleet map, all at 10:1, so I at least know one important thing and that is the mass of frozen precip (not including freezing rain) - as mass is a very important emergency planning number, as snow removal and driving (apart from visibility) impacts are most closely related to frozen mass, not depth. The NAM shows similar outcomes for the model outputs fro Pivotal and TT with regard to sleet/snow. I wish they would publish separate sleet maps (including the assumed ratio).

Don't think I posted in this thread earlier, but after thinking the snow was over around 5 pm with 3.25" OTG, it just kept snowing on and off, lightly, through much of the evening and we got another 1/4" of snow, for a total of 3.5" and 3.0-3.6" amounts were recorded very near to me (Parlin, Hopelawn, Carteret, South Plainfield, etc. (and most of these were from around 4-5 pm, before the last 1/4" fell). Nice storm, reasonably well forecast by the NWS with 1-3" amounts for most of SEPA/SNJ (S of 276/195) and 2-4" amounts for most of PA/NJ N of that line up to 78 (except only 1-2" at the coast) and 3-6" amounts for NWNJ and the Lehigh Valley (which were definitely well under-forecast). NYC/NENJ got 2-3" for the most part and LI got 3-5" (also under-forecast). 3.5" brings our seasonal total up to 18.75". NWS map of reports is below, but not a final map yet, as there are many incomplete reports in there and in the PNS lists. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=39.58&lon=-74.98&hr=24

Well, it just kept snowing on and off, lightly, through much of the evening and we got another 1/4" of snow, for a total of 3.5" and 3.0-3.6" amounts were recorded very near to me (Parlin, Hopelawn, Carteret, South Plainfield, etc. (and most of these were from around 4-5 pm, before the last 1/4" fell). Nice storm, reasonably well forecast by the NWS with 1-3" amounts for most of SEPA/SNJ (S of 276/195) and 2-4" amounts for most of PA/NJ N of that line up to 78 (except only 1-2" at the coast) and 3-6" amounts for NWNJ and the Lehigh Valley (which were definitely well under-forecast). NYC/NENJ got 2-3" for the most part and LI got 3-5" (also under-forecast). 3.5" brings our seasonal total up to 18.75". NWS map of reports is below, but not a final map yet, as there are many incomplete reports in there and in the PNS lists. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=39.58&lon=-74.98&hr=24

Not sure if you saw my recent post on Center City - haven't seen any reports from there, but 1-3" reports from Philly outside of CC - could see the UHI effect leading to CC being on the low side. Any intel?

Any reports from Center City Philly? Saw the outer parts of Philly got 1-3", but the airport only had 0.4", so wondering if that was just a measurement issue or was there really less in the most urban part of Philly. TIA. ...Philadelphia County... Chestnut Hill 3.2 in 0345 PM 02/13 Public Manayunk 2.8 in 0430 PM 02/13 Public Shawmont 2.0 in 1140 AM 02/13 Public Fox Chase 1.3 in 0800 AM 02/13 Trained Spotter Philadelphia International 0.4 in 0725 PM 02/13 ASOS

Always prefer night time snow, so there's much less chance of melting and you can see the snow all night if you just don't waste time sleeping. Plus, I really enjoy the late night Jeb-walks when there's not another soul in the world to disturb the perfect peace of a silent snowfall.

Well it's been snowing fairly lightly and continuously since 11 am and it seems like the snowfall rate has been roughly equal to the melting rate (I'm guessing we've had about 0.1-0.2" snow per hour and that's the likely melting rate), so I'm going to stick with the 3.25" I measured at 11 am. It also hasn't wavered from 32F since 9 am. With the sun much lower in the sky now, it's likely that any additional snow will accumulate, but the storm's precip looks to be close to over, except for the coast and LI. If this is the last of it, that brings our seasonal total up to 18.5", which is very c;lose to normal for this point in the season.

Where's "here?"

As of 11:00 am, we're up to 3.25" with 1/4" the last hour; my driveway/sidewalk still has about 1/2" of snow in most spots from the earlier band, although that will melt with lighter rates and the indirect sun. Still 32F.

As of 10:00 am, we hit 3.0", with 0.4" the last hour and most of that in the last 20 minutes with the moderate band we're under. My driveway and sidewalks are getting snow-covered again after shoveling. Still 32F

Radar really blowing up now in CNJ - those NWS guys know what they're doing, lol - this could easily put down another 1/2"-1" if it holds together - beautiful big dendrites fallkng moderately right now.

As of 9:00 am, we have 2.6" of snow (only 1/10th of an inch the last hour) and I just cleared the snowboard (every 6 hours), so let's see if we get much more or not. I'm guessing another 1/2" given that we have some snow bands incoming from the SW. It's 32F here and will stay around 32F for the next several hours before dropping into the 20s this evening. Just shoveled as we have enough on the driveway/sidewalks that won't melt before this evening and I don't want frozen slush for the next 2 days. Also, the NWS update just said it looks like accumulating snow in NWNJ (esp Warren/Sussex) and the Lehigh Valley, which overperformed with 3-5" of snow, so far, is over, but that they're seeing snow bands blossoming over SWNJ/SEPA (clear on the radar), which should impact the 95 corridor and much of SNJ and the coast for the next several hours with another inch or so possible, although that snow will very likely only accumulate on colder surfaces now that the sun is up and stronger and temps are at or slightly above 32F. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 912 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... There was a bit of a lull in the snowfall rates this morning. However, another band of snow was beginning to develop and advect northeastward along the Interstate 95 Corridor and vicinity around 9:00 AM. That should continue to be the trend during the balance of the morning with the band drifting eastward and off the coast late this afternoon. With temperatures at or just above freezing, additional snowfall amounts in those area should be no more than an inch or two. Meanwhile, for the areas to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor where the overnight snow over-performed, the current trends suggest little additional snow accumulation, with the snow mostly coming to an end by afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisories will be left in place and may need to be adjusted around midday.

As of 8:00 am we're up to 2.25" OTG with 1/2" the last hour. 31F. Here's a pretty picture... worth a walk outside y'all. Also, you can see from the pic that the lightly traveled road across the street is still fully snow-covered, while the busier street right in front of our house is only partly slush-covered, as traffic has warmed things up a bit and melted some of the snow.

Really nice band just popped up for Southern Somerset through most of Middlesex/Union - coming down nicely now with decent sized dendrites.

As of 7:00 am, up to 1.75" with fairly light intensity most of the last hour, but picking back up again now. Temp down to 31F. HRRR shows another inch or so for most through about noon, but at fairly light rates of 1/4" per hour, I doubt we'll see that much more accumulate with the indirect sunlight becoming more of an issue for melting by 9-10 am. Guessing we'll end up with 2-2.5" here.

As of 6:00 am, we're up to 1.50" OTG, as intensity as definitely lighter the last hour (1/4" fell). Intensity picked back up the last 10 minutes and flakes are now more dendritic/drier, presumably due to better growth up in the DGZ and a colder column. 32F here.

As of 5:00 am, we're up to 1.25" OTG, as intensity was a bit less the last 20 minutes or so. Temp down to 32F, so melting should no longer be an issue, at least not until 9-10 am when the sun is up in the sky a bit. Very pretty out there and it's great snowball snow...