RU848789

I'll countersue, lol. I love sleet and think we should multiply what falls by 3 to get to about 10:1.

Pretty sure the UK is still 2nd, although those model verification scores are typically based on 500 mbar temps/pressures, iirc, and I don't know if we have accuracy scores on what all of us want, i.e., on NE US winter storms (I've asked some pros before and nobody has said we have that kind of data).

Was outside this morning around 8 am and measured about 0.2" of snow on my car top and back deck (all surfaces were covered, but paved surfaces were covered unevenly). Just got back and we actually still have about the same amount as of 9 am, so very little melted (it's up to 29F from a low around 27F, so it's been below freezing). Schools had a delayed opening (just kidding).

Been snowing lightly here for about 20 minutes at 29F and we officially have a dusting. which is about 0.1", so my snowless winter is over, lol. Looks like most places are getting some measurable snow in E PA, most of NJ, NYC/LHV/LI, with my guess being that some bands have delivered at least 1/4" for some and maybe close to 1/2". Woohoo!

Looks like NENJ (Union to Bergen) and NYC/LHV got a period of snow around 3 am or so, at least by the radar, unless it was heavy virga. Any reports? Looks like a band might hit my area shortly - hope it's actual snow...

Looks like NENJ (Union to Bergen) and NYC/LHV got a period of snow around 3 am or so, at least by the radar, unless it was heavy virga. Any reports? Looks like a band might hit my area shortly - hope it's actual snow...

Remember, if it weren't for air conditioning, nobody would live in the south except farmers, like it used to be...

Look at the urban heat island effect in Kenilworth, NJ (just west of Elizabeth), where it's 50F right now, lol. All kidding aside, it's always interesting to see the lack of any UHI when it's very windy, as the continuous convection whisks that heat away easily - pretty much the same temps everywhere, except well NW of 95, where there is some elevation. Quote

Well it's almost 1 pm and temps in NW Sussex/Warren and the Poconos are at or below 32F - good luck with the snow. We started as sleet here in the Edison area around noon and got a tiny coating before the quick changeover to rain. That's it until late next week for us...

GFS finally on board, but a day later - and of course, the CMC loses the storm at 12Z - let's see if the Euro still shows a big snowstorm at 12Z. Still in fantasy land, but I'd rather have models showing a potential major storm 7-8 days out than none at all...

0Z NAM is even colder/snowier with regard to the southern extent of significant snow (except for the weird snow hole over Scranton). If either of these were to verify or even be close, there are going to be a lot of surprised people.

Hard to ignore the significantly colder 12Z NAM and GFS solutions relative to earlier runs. Let's see if other models hop on board. Not going to "save" the 95 corridor, but would have big implications for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, NWNJ, and the Hudson Valley.

I should probably know this, but is there somewhere that captures when a first frost and freeze actually occurred for towns/counties in our area? Tons of websites out there listing average first frosts and freezes, but havent seen what I'm asking about. Based on the NWS map, I would assume Sussex/Warren and the Poconos have already had their first freezes, since they're not included in the freeze warnings (they don't get issued after the first freeze, which marks the end of the growing season; not sure if frost advisories get reissued after the first frost and before the first freeze, though). TIA.

Like always? Meaning everything reported to date by the media on Ian has been BS? Of course not, the reporting has generally been fantastic. Such an ignorant statement.

Thought folks would be interested in this; link and excerpt below. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump Enhanced computing and storage capacity will allow NOAA to deploy higher-resolution models to better capture small-scale features like severe thunderstorms, more realistic model physics to better capture the formation of clouds and precipitation, and a larger number of individual model simulations to better quantify model certainty. The end result is even better forecasts and warnings to support public safety and the national economy. The new supercomputers will enable an upgrade to the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) this fall and the launch of a new hurricane forecast model called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), slated to be in operation for the 2023 hurricane season pending tests and evaluation.

I'm amazed nobody is talking about potential significant snowfall for the interior NE (Poconos, Catskills and interior NY/New England and possibly even far NWNJ and the Hudson Valley) on Monday night into Tuesday - and what might it take for some snow to reach all the way down to the 95 corridor...

Thought Mt. Holly's AFD was excellent. Going to be a wild day for you folks. Normally I'd be observing and posting non-stop, but it's time for a round of disc golf down here in Vero Beach (high near 80F today), then a trip to the casino to play poker with my dad. Will seriously miss not being there for this one. Enjoy, but stay safe! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 613 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure system will affect the area today, bringing rain then snow, before strong northwest flow develops later today through Sunday. High pressure builds across the southeast states on Sunday, then offshore Sunday night. A weak frontal boundary is forecast to move across the area on Tuesday, before a coastal system passes near or south of the region late Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY... Steady precipitation is overspreading the region this morning as strengthening low pressure begins its trek up the East Coast. Widespread low clouds and some fog are also in place thanks to light southeasterly flow. Precipitation is falling as mainly rain for now, though surface observations indicate the approaching cold front has already moved into the Poconos and will continue to progress southeast, with rapid temperature drops and rain changing to snow occurring behind the front. The quick moving low to our southwest will continue to strengthen as it passes over or just east of the region today. Its intensification will be supported by a vigorous mid- level trough beginning to pivot to a more neutral orientation, as well as extremely strong upper jet dynamics which will easily allow the developing low to achieve bomb cyclone criteria by tonight. Regarding the local forecast, the main change overnight, while not a huge change, was a continuation of the trends from yesterday. The track of the low continues to push a little further east, resulting in a faster transition to snow for eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. This has resulted in higher snow totals nudging a little further southeast. With the eastward trend, QPF has decreased somewhat, especially to the northwest. As a result, snow totals in the Poconos did not increase, and the Lehigh Valley was also little changed. However, they did increase a little more noticeably over southeast PA and north-central NJ. The Winter Storm Warning was extended a little further southeast in PA, and Winter Weather Advisories were extended east of the Delaware River in southern New Jersey, and to Kent County, MD. Considered Warnings for Morris and Hunterdon NJ as well. Will hold off there for now but monitor trends for possible upgrade later. This will be an impactful event. Rain will steadily change to snow from northwest to southeast from soon after daybreak through early this afternoon. Snowfall rates around and locally above 1 inch per hour are likely in the warned area, and could briefly occur in the Advisory area also. This is supported by NBM and HREF 1 hr snow probabilities and strong fgen forcing which will be present. As winds increase (more on this below), blizzard-like conditions will occur for a time late this morning and early this afternoon over much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Even along the I-95 corridor, this could be a rather impactful event even though snow totals will not be as high. A couple hours of snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour and gusty winds with blizzard-like conditions are likely for that corridor, including Philadelphia. Furthermore, this looks like a classic setup for a flash freeze, with temperatures plummeting below freezing while precipitation is still ongoing. Snowfall rates will taper off by mid afternoon, but light snow will continue and wet surfaces will continue to freeze as temperatures fall further, with flash freeze impacts extending potentially all the way to the coast. In terms of the wind, there may be a couple of main bursts. The first will be this afternoon and early this evening with the initial wind shift to northwest, subsequent pressure rises, and changing of precipitation to snow. This looks like a good bet to bring 40 to 45 mph gusts, locally higher, to much of the region during the afternoon and early evening. These winds could lead to areas of blowing snow and contribute to continued reduced visibilities well into the afternoon even as snowfall rates diminish.

Euro is now an actual snowstorm for the 95 corridor. Just arrived in FL to visit family, so I'll be pissed if I miss a good snowstorm, lol...

One thing to keep in mind with accumulations and melting, which we talk about every March, is that it's all about rates, where accumulation = snowfall rate - melting rate. And once one has a good enough snowfall rate to exceed the melting rate (which is obviously lower on grass than pavement) and accumulation begins, that snow on the ground is now at 32F, so the melting rate for subsequent snow falling on 32F snow goes down significantly, i.e., it's now only a function of melting from above 32F air temps and the impact of the indirect sunlight (where the melting rate due to the warm surface is no longer a factor). And if the snowfall rate is high enough it can overcome the melting rate even on pavement (the melting rate is probably around 1/2" per hour on pavement).

EE rule anyone? That's a lot of snow from pretty good models to completely ignore, although snow depth is less for each (as is Kuchera, given likely above 32F temps somewhere in the column, at least near/along 95). At the very least would be nice to get a few inches on the grass and have some snow during daylight hours to watch.

Along and near 95, like here in Metuchen, we were fortunate temps went above 32F from about 7-10 am (33-34F), allowing melting of the ice on paved surfaces (aided by the indirect sun), so my driveway/sidewalk and street in front of my house are now just wet, but temps have dropped back to 31-32F in the area and not much of the ice on the trees/cars melted, as per the pics. By my eyeball it looks like about 0.15-0.20" of ice accretion on branches (which probably was 1/4" at its worst). We had that on the paved surfaces this morning until at least 6 am when I fell asleep. Here are a couple of pics: a bush from my front yard showing the ice accretion and the view of the pond and trees across the street. Freezing rain is so dangerous, but you have to admit it's exquisitely beautiful to look at.

We've had freezing rain for the last few hours, but the precip has just let up quite a bit as a dry slot has hit most of CNJ/SNJ. Just looked closely at some small branches and I'd estimate between 0.10 and 0.15" of ice accretion. The freezing rain and the 1/4" or so of sleet that fell earlier have combined to make an icy/slushy mess on all surfaces. My driveway is extremely slippery as is the road in front of my house (very lightly traveled overnight) - watching some TV coverage and cams, the more heavily traveled major roads in the 95 corridorappear to be mostly wet but reports are that NW of here parts of roads like 78 and 287 are icier. It's still 31F here, but temps just SE of here in Old Bridge and Keyport are 33F so warmer air is finally getting down to the surface. I'd expect the 95 corridor to get above 32F by ~7 am, but it will take til mid-morning a bit NW of here. Time for some sleep...

Back to mostly freezing rain at 31F with a few sleet pellets mixed in. Wondering if that's it for the sleet or not here. Already have probably 0.05" of ice accretion on trees - easiest place to estimate that, since the sleet didn't accumulate on the branches. Very slick out right now.

It's pouring sleet out there right now - we got 1/4" of sleet in the last 30 minutes, which is 1.5" of snow equivalent per hour, roughly. Everything is covered and roads are very slick. Glad we're getting sleet and hopefully it'll be for awhile. Interestingly, the dual pol looks like the sleet shouldn't be falling here, but it is. 31F still. Fortunately, few people have to travel between now and 5-6 am, when I think we'll be above 32F along 95, allowing some melting to occur, although there will still likely be some slushy areas on the roads if temps don't go above 32F until 5-6 am (not everything melts magically at 33-34F, which is where it'll be through 8-9 am). Anywhere it's not above 32F by 7 am is going to be in for a real mess tomorrow morning, assuming we get several hours of at least moderate sleet and then freezing rain.

I've always thought the dual pol radar was the best one to differentiate sleet from other precip types I assume in the pic below that the yellows are the highly reflected signals from the ice pellets, while the "clear red" (south of 80 in NJ and extending W of Trenton in PA for a bit) is rain or freezing rain. I'm assuming there is no radar that can actually "detect" freezing rain (since rain and freezing rain are identical while falling) and that radars that show ZR are using some built in algorithm that knows the depth of the <32F layer at/near the surface. Is there a good "radar" that shows where the ZR is or should I just look to see where it's below 32F?