RU848789

We now have a whole light dusting on all surfaces now, lol; plenty of reports of 1/4-1/2" or so in places like Branchburg, Basking Ridge, Bethlehem, Quakertown, Morristown, etc. Supposedly, we'll see occasional bands like the one we just saw through 8-9 pm - really want to get 1/2" if possible, just to pretty things up...

Light flurries here - not enough to accumulate...

Saw this elsewhere, which supposedly shows flakes where snow is actually falling, which is cool - don't have RadarScope Pro, though.

Do we know if the snow on the radar is hitting the ground in NWNJ/Lehigh Valley?

I'll take that bet...we have model consensus on at least 1/2" for NYC Metro with some places getting 1"+ (and those places can't be predicted well for a mesoscale event like this one). Models can be way off days in advance, but I doubt they're all wrong <8 hours from the start of an event, even a minor one.

Even the globals (especially the Euro/CMC) are showing 0.5-1"+ this afternoon/evening N of 276/195. It would be nice...

The NWS has come around to Walt's thinking (which Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 agrees with, too) as their interactive point/click map now shows 0.5-1.0" north of 276/195 in PA/NJ/NY (and 1-2" in the Poconos) vs. 1/4-1/2" south of that line, even though their official map only says <1". Still pretty minor, but as the NWS said, "with cold temps, roads could get slippery especially after sunset this evening." This would apply for areas that get more than 1/2", given temps in the upper 20s. Also, the most recent 12Z mesoscale/short-term models (NAM, HRRR, RAP, RGEM), which, in theory, should do better with a minor mesoscale event like this, are all showing 0.5-1"+ for areas N of 276/195. The NWS map shows 0.5" for my house, but I'll go with a hugely overperforming 0.7", lol. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=PHI Also, for those curious, this was a big storm for NE NC and SE VA and extreme southern MD/DE, as per the map below. The VA Tidewater area got 8-12", the northern OBX got 3-5" as did the Research Triangle and Richmond areas, and extreme southern MD/DE got 4-6", while areas in western VA/NC got a fair amount less than forecast as did northern VA/MD, with DC actually shut out, as was all of NJ, except Cape May which got <1/2". Was really fascinating to see the steep gradient across the southern half of Sussex Co, DE, going from 0 to 5" over a 20 mile stretch from NW to SE.

And the Euro joins the party for our blizzard tomorrow, lol...

0Z NAMs not bad - key message is that there will be some bands - where the 1"+ amounts will be is a crapshoot, of course...

Any snow reports from Cape May? Looks like they've had a few decent spells of snow on the radar...

Party time, sign me up - and it's our monthly poker night and this month it's at my house in Metuchen (we'll hit 40 years next year), so even better!

Latest RAP saves us, lol, although it is interesting to note that the meso models are a bit more bullish for the Philly-NYC area (1/2-1" for most) than the globals (0-1/2" for most. 1/2" would be nice, but so would an overperforming 1", given how this storm has turned out.

I get the disappointment in the season, but at the same time I've had 12 measurable snowfalls totaling 16", albeit 4 of them were <1" and 6 of them were 1-1.5", with only 2 of them in the 3-4" range - but all of them made it look wintry for at least a few hours to a day. Have had at least a bit of snow coverage much of the winter post 12/20, as it's been cold, preserving the small snowfalls. If we can get another 1" tomorrow and a couple of 3-4" storms before the winter is over, I'm up to about normal.

NAM 12Z ULL snows from about 4 pm to midnight put down 0.5-1.0" for most and even over 1.0" for some...it's at least something...

Similar to 18Z for inland areas, but a lot more snow for SENJ and far ELI. Just need the ULL to connect more to the low via an IVT to get those 1-2" amounts in NEPA to make it through NJ/NYC. I would guess we'll see a lot of movement in those ULL blobs/bands of snow NW of the NJ coast and ELI. Congratulations Cape May and Montauk, lol.

If you end up being right about the ULL-IVT driven minor snowfall all along, we'll all owe you big hugs! Salvaging an inch of powder out of this debacle would still be very nice.

5.5" according to this site; also saw their snowiest winter was 42" in 1980. https://www.bestplaces.net/climate/city/virginia/virginia_beach

That graphic makes it look like the asteroid is the size of Saudi Arabia, lol - it's actually 177 feet across. Not sure if Bruce Willis or Robert Duvall will still be around to save us...

18Z RGEM almost identical to 12Z and presents a much more believable general area-wide snowfall from the ULL of 0.5-1.5" of pure powder, with a bullseye on NYC and is fairly similar to the 18Z NAM with the ULL snows - and both show hints of an inverted trough reaching westward from the coastal low to the ULL. I could see someone getting a few inches wherever the best bands set up.

Not surprisingly, the CMC looks a lot like the RGEM with the ULL blossoming and the coastal not that far offshore anymore...would at least be nice to get an inch or so of pure powder...

This is essentially what Walt has been talking about, i.e., 1" or so for most from the ULL...although the heavier coastal precip isn't that far away...

Is there any better summary of how this winter has gone for most of us in this forum than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days? It's not that we've been shutout, but that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, has gotten more and is projected to get even more. Ouch.

Waiting for Walt's daily morning post and hoping he still sees some way of getting >1" for NYC metro...

The 6Z NAM and the 03Z SREFs are the only models showing any snow over 1" anywhere north of coastal DE, although several models have ~1/2" amounts throughout the inland regions north of there due to the ULL, while several others show nada. I can understand why the NWS cut snowfall back again. We're close to miracle territory for getting even minor snowfall north of DE, although their 1 in 10 chance high end map does show some surprisingly high snowfall amounts for the area, indicating that there's still some potential for more snow (and reflecting that we're still 42+ hours away from the "event" starting time)...and their 1 in 10 chance low end map shows 0.0" for everyone.

This is the 19Z BOM I'm sure he was referring to at 7 pm...I would kill for that, lol, but I'm sure it's heavily weighted towards the NAM and SREFs, which are also bullish. The NWS often follows the BOM at least early on, but clearly they are not right now, with less snow forecast, which is understandable with nada from the GFS, UK, CMC, etc (other than the 1/2" or so now showing up on some of the models for nearly everyone, presumably due to the upper level low).