RU848789

So the 0Z Euro is a step back from 18Z for NYC Metro, but is still better than 12Z was and is somewhat more in line with the rest of the 0Z suite. If the storm was tomorrow, I'd go with the NBM, i.e. ~2" along 80 (including NYC) increasing as one goes south to 3-4" along 276/195 and more south of there (meaning 2-3" for most of CNJ). I'd take that, considering things were looking like <1" for most folks N of 276/195 until this evening, although I also won't turn down further increases, lol.

UK also showed improvement relative to 12Z, if you live north of Wilmington to AC. Euro up next - hoping it at least doesn't backtrack from 18Z...

CMC joins the party - loving the trends since the 18Z Euro...

Euro at 18Z and ICON/GFS at 0Z. Good trends.

Yep, big jump in snowfall on the EPS for areas north of DC-Cape May, so this wouldn't appear to be an Op outlier (not like that nutty 12Z GFS run showing 12"+ in the deep south today, while the GEFS showed barely nada).

Nice! Let's hope this is the start of a trend towards at least some snow for our area (and maybe more than a few inches) - and with temps in the 20s, melting/accumulation wouldn't be an issue, plus we might do better than 10:1, if we can get good dendritic growth (which is not a factor in the Kuchera algorithm, which is why I don't post those maps).

Exhibit #877 on why putting any stock in Op models beyond 6-7 days is fruitless, as the 18Z GFS comes back to reality for SE US snow vs. 12Z and why ensembles are the way to go. Obviously, the 12Z GFS was an outlier solution for SE snow given that probably every other member had little to no snow. While the ~10 day Op runs of the Euro/GFS for the 1/10-11 window haven't looked great for our area the past few Op runs, we're still ridiculously far out, so let's see how it plays out. And hope for an inch or two on 1/6.

Good call, although it's interesting to see how different the GEPS is vs. the Op CMC at 12Z. The Op having so little precip must be a dry outlier for the ensemble mean to be so much wetter/snowier.

Yes, we've both posted the NBM model inputs before, but as far as I know, many of those models don't run out 120+ hours and there are some I don't have access to and the ones I do aren't showing that much snow through 1/6. So still puzzled.

Interesting that the NBM has bumped up snowfall a bit at 13Z vs. previous runs, especially along/S of 78, when none of the major globals are showing anywhere near that amount of snow (just small upticks on the Euro, especially N of 276/195. I know many more models go into the NBM, but I'll admit I'm puzzled.

NAM! Just kidding. Getting ready for our annual NYE party, so no model watching for the next ~12 hours or so, and figured it's fairly dead between model suites. Happy New Year All!

Minor point, but the BOM graphic has no title on it, so one can't see what run it is nor how far out the run goes - wondering if it's "snipped" instead of copied/pasted. Looks like it's today's 07Z run thru 1/9 at 0Z. Completely agree patience is key here with so many models/solutions and still being 7+ days out.

Did you see the 6Z GFS? Has a general 1-3" snowfall for most of EPA/NJ/SENY (including Philly/NYC) on 1/6 and then has a monster snowstorm with a foot or more for the region on 1/10. Kind of fits your two thread idea.

Zoomed in, since this is the NYC forum - I'll take two of these, please, lol. Still almost 8 days out, so no surprise the Ops aren't aligned, but at least the major ensembles are fairly aligned for decent snowfall through day 10+. I check about twice a day for a few minutes, since the uncertainty is still way too high for Op run consistency or reliability. As many have noted, the biggest story could end up being brutal cold in the SE US, which could lead to major crop damage in Florida and temps near 32F as far south as Miami (last freeze there was in 1989).

Buckle up folks, social media is about to go wild, but as amazing as this pattern looks, we all know that 11-day forecasts are highly uncertain and there are things that could go wrong to wreck the virtual snow we're looking at now. As others have said, I'll be very interested, but I'm not going to start getting really excited about anything until I see some general consensus within 6-7 days, i.e., the timeframe when numerical weather prediction, which is inherently chaotic, starts to become more certain - that's why the NWS, who knows a thing or two about forecasting, doesn't issue forecasts beyond 7 days.

Four below average winters in a row, including 2 duds (3 for most, but we got 24.6" last winter with almost half of that from the Norlun Trough Mega Death Band from Heaven), will make me post Day 11 GFS Op runs. Wow.

A little snow...

Still have over 2" on most of our property... so pretty to look at and walk in. Had a very nice Christmas with our son and his fiancee. Presents, all kinds of apps, burgers and dogs (top line butcher meats), an ice cream sundae orgy and now watching the Princess Bride. Happy Holidays all!https://imgur.com/a/1uPR3NQ https://imgur.com/a/1uPR3NQ

Already back down to the mid-30s in most locations and should be below 32F in an hour or two and very little melting goes on at these temps at night, so whatever you had at aunset should be what you have at 7 am tomorrow.

I was talking more about deciduous trees - the dark wood absorbs a lot of UV radiation and the trees then become a heat source at ground level and help melt snow on the ground. Of course on the north side of any tree that provide shade, melting will be less otg than when open to the sun. The other thing that thick evergreen rows can do is catch most of the snow, so it doesn't accumulate much underneath and then that area melts first and spreads. One thing I think many don't get is that melting is not simply a "top down" process where the top (or bottom if the ground is warm - not an issue for this event), but is often more influenced by a "boundary" process, where the melting is driven by areas that first melt near warmer boundaries, like paved surfaces or tree trunks or grass under evergreens, and then that boundary just continues horizontally as new areas of grass become exposed to the sun.

Here are a couple of pics from about sunset. The first shows that without traffic today's snow (no snow was left on paved surfaces from Saturday since there wasn't much accumulation on them to begin with) held on pretty well on streets and sidewalks and the 2nd shows 0.9" on the sidewalk across the street from me vs 1.1" that fell. And the next pic shows we still have about 2.8" out of the 4.4" that fell since Sat (loss due to melting and compaction). Yes there are some south facing yards with bare spots next to paved surfaces and trees, but most yards have 1-2" of snow (my yard is more shady than most, hence the 2.8").

Of course most paved spots that had some traffic and sunny spots near trees (which absorb heat well and "spread" that to the ground) will be bare, but the sidewalk across the street from me is 100% covered (it was undisturbed) and my entire property, except the very back where there are a bunch of trees, has 1.5-2.5", as we've lost maybe 1/2" to compaction/melting. Also, any undisturbed open field in the sun in town has 2+" on it, as melting is far slower when there is no exposed pavement or no trees to initiate melting at the boundaries.

Disagree. While most/all of the snow on paved surfaces will likely be gone, we're only talking 6-7 hours above 32F (and only maybe 1-2 hours above 36F), with temps back down to 32F by 6-7 pm and the sun just came out partly here around 1 pm, so there's only ~3 hours of meaningful sun left today, at the lowest sun angle of the year...so I'm expecting at least some of the new snow to survive (1/3 to half left?). I will be checking later today.

Nice! Please tell me you measured, lol...

Technically, according to Walt Drag, former NWS-Philly/Boston met, who posts in the NYC forum (lives in Wantage) anything greater than 1/2" rounds up to 1" for the purposes of that 7 am measurement. Guaranteed to have that here with 2-3" OTG now.