RU848789

Don't know if you or others would know the answer to this, but has anyone ever gone back and run some big storms with very checkered modeling history, like 12/26/2010 (which looked dead 36 hours before the event and then boom! as most around here would know), using today's models, which we know are more accurate, in general, to see if they would've done better than the 2010 models did? I know the model improvements over the years are not all due to the physical models themselves, but are also due to the improvements in the richness of the data inputs, so today's models with 2010 or 1980 data inputs might not be as good, but I would love to know the answer to how today's models would do vs. older models for storms of the past.

To summarize, at 0Z, GFS is a significant snowstorm for most of our area, especially the coast, while the Euro gives an inch or two towards the coast, but is essentially out to sea again (similar to the past few runs) and the CMC and UK are also out to sea well to our SE, with all four models giving decent snowfalls to the deep south then some to SC/NC/SoVA before heading up the coast (GFS) or out to sea (Euro, CMC, UK); the ICON does give our area a few inches. This system is on life support for being a major snowstorm for our area, kind of like RU's hoops season, lol. In both cases, it's not over yet, but if we don't see dramatic changes soon, they're toast. And the 6Z GFS is similar to 0Z with the Euro to come. Great analysis of what's going on meteorologically by Tomer Burg, below, including why this system is much more complex and unpredictable 5 days out than today's storm was. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1876453467453083696

I'd be very happy with a less amped storm that still dumped 4-8" of snow on most of the area...

Looking good so far...

Bummer for the SEPA/SNJ folks near Philly, who got a lot less than forecast and not much more than most of us in CNJ and even NNJ.

Damn, thought you guys would get more - sounds like Philly and adjacent SNJ only getting 2" or so...

That last little band over us did the trick, moving us up to 1.2" for the storm and the radar truly looks done for us; temp up to 28F. That brings us to 5.8" for the winter, which is close to average for this point of the season. And great to hear so many people are getting 1" or so even in NENJ/NYC/LI, which is a nice surprise. So pretty out there.

That last little band over us did the trick, moving us up to 1.2" for the storm and the radar truly looks done for us; temp up to 28F. That brings us to 5.8" for the winter, which is close to average for this point of the season. And great to hear so many people are getting 1" or so even in NENJ/NYC/LI, which is a nice surprise. So pretty out there.

I had 1.1" at about the same time, but with the little band that could the past 30 minutes, I'd bet we got another 0.1", so about to go measure again for what should be the actual last time for this one, lol.

Measured around 1:05 pm, thinking we were done, but 2 minutes later the snow picked up again and is still going decently, so might pick up another 0.1". It truly looks dry behind what we have now. My house is about 1/2 mile NW of where 287 and the NJTPK meet, so whenever someone says "north and west of 95" or "north of 287" I'm both, lol.

As of about 1:05 pm, we're up to 1.1" and down to very light snow, with not much more on the radar to our west, so this might be it, unless we get a rogue band over the next hour or two. Not too far off my 1.5" prediction yesterday and more than I thought we were going to get around 9 am this morning when we got off to a slow start. Just enough snow for a few kids to sled on, although they left just before I got the latest pic below.

As of about 1:05 pm, we're up to 1.1" and down to very light snow, with not much more on the radar to our west, so this might be it, unless we get a rogue band over the next hour or two. Not too far off my 1.5" prediction yesterday and more than I thought we were going to get around 9 am this morning when we got off to a slow start. Just enough snow for a few kids to sled on, although they left just before I got the latest pic below.

1.6" reported in Basking Ridge - surprised they have more than us in Metuchen, but it did look like they had better bands, which is always a bit of a crapshoot. Back to moderate snow again and for the next 10-15 min I think - could be about it, but might get us to 1".

As of noon, we're up to 0.8" as that last ~40 minutes was pretty good snowfall, but we're back to very light snow. Could maybe squeeze out another 0.2" to get to 1", but not sure. Still gorgeous, though, as per the pic, which also shows the two roads I mentioned above, one brined and one not.

As of noon, we're up to 0.8" as that last ~40 minutes was pretty good snowfall, but we're back to very light snow. Could maybe squeeze out another 0.2" to get to 1", but not sure. Still gorgeous, though, as per the pic, which also shows the two roads I mentioned above, one brined and one not.

And at least the CMC isn't a whiff anymore...

Please sir, may I have some more?

Best snow of the storm the past 15 minutes - coming down moderately - not too much longer though on the radar...

In a bit of a lull now with very light, fine, pixie dust flakes falling, but radar looks nice approaching us from the SW, so should pick up soon. We're up to 0.4" as of 10:50 am (2 hrs) and it's still 26F. And brining works by the way for light snows like this: the street we live on, which was brined, is just wet, but the street that feeds into it is 100% snow covered.

In a bit of a lull now with very light, fine, pixie dust flakes falling, but radar looks nice approaching us from the SW, so should pick up soon. We're up to 0.4" as of 10:50 am (2 hrs) and it's still 26F. And brining works by the way for light snows like this: the street we live on, which was brined, is just wet, but the street that feeds into it is 100% snow covered.

Grew up in Whitman Square - WTHS Class of 80. Hope you get to at least 3" down there. When I was a kid it always seemed like south and east of Philly - us - did much worse than north and west of Philly (usually due to mixing/changeover), but this could be your chance, lol.

Yeah, I have friends in Mays Landing and Northfield who are getting heavy snow with a few inches OTG already.

Yes, I edited my post, as I hadn't seen the 12Z NAM/RGEM/ICON all upping totals to 1-1.5" (and 2" in spots) for areas N of 276/195 up to 78, i.e., CNJ, so maybe I spoke too soon.

13Z and 14Z HRRR, still have 1"+ for CNJ from 9 am through 2 pm. Not buying it. My guess is the Euro is going to end up being the model winner for the overall storm in the NE US at least, looking at its consistency for days showing a lighter event than other models and less than most forecasts, including the NWS. Edit - hadn't seen the 12Z NAM/RGEM/ICON all upping totals to 1-1.5" (and 2" in spots) for areas N of 276/195 up to 78, i.e., CNJ, so maybe I spoke too soon.

Been snowing lightly for about an hour and we have a whole 1/4" OTG as of 9:50 am, lol. NWS discussion said they're sticking with their forecast amounts, but I have my doubts for most of CNJ, especially the northern half towards 78, getting to 1" and for Philly getting to 3", looking at the radar, although it can always fill in more. It is covering all surfaces, which is no surprise at 26F, so paved surfaces are slick already. It is a very pretty snow - light and fluffy consisting of small dendrites. Edit: Well, all of a sudden, the 12Z NAM/RGEM/ICON came out, all upping totals to 1-1.5" (and 2" in spots) for areas N of 276/195 up to 78, i.e., CNJ, plus the 13Z and 14Z HRRR are showing 1"+ for CNJ from 9 am to 2 pm, so maybe I spoke too soon, especially as the radar in eastern PA from Philly to Allentown has blossomed and is heading our way - depends if it holds together or dries up/falls apart.