RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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Had some weird PC crap going on, lol...deleted the dups...
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Not here - that hole is a hole in Metuchen - barely a flurry now and it looks like it could kill most of an hour for me.
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Welcome aboard! And let's get this man a red tag! And since you're here, how much QPF do you think the 95 corridor from, say Edison (I know, just outside of your CWA, but close and where I live, lol), to NYC will be losing to sleet/ZR/rain. Hoping the NAM is overdone with the ZR and we stay snow longer, but we'll see I guess. Appreciate the work the NWS does, especially PHI and OKX, as I'm right on the border.
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As of 1 am, we're up to 1.1", so we had about another 1/4" last hour, but the radar has dried up to our SW and it's heading here, so expecting less this next hour, unless that fairly large hole closes up. Still 24F. Probably going to nap for a few hours...
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Finally getting a decent band the last 10 minutes with heavier snowfall and bigger dendrites; looks like the band might last another 20 minutes, but hard to predict that stuff.
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And as of midnight we're up to 0.9", so another 1/4" or so in the last hour. Temp is down to 24F. Snowfall intensity remains a bit more than light, but not quite moderate with small, fine flakes, indicating we're not getting the best snow growth, with small dendrites/rods falling, so ratios are probably close to 10:1 if I had to guess. Assuming we stay at 1/4" per hour overnight, we'd likely have about 2.5" by 6 am, which is when the coastal low is supposed to be taking over and the models (and mets) are saying intensity will increase, but also bring in more warm air aloft, probably changing our precip to sleet or freezing rain or plain rain by maybe 10 am - but if we can get 3-4 hours of 1/2" per hour snowfall (moderate rate), we could add another 2" to get to around 4". We'll see. Interesting that Lee Goldberg has essentially the NJ TPK from Trenton to Ft. Lee as the 3" line with 3-5" NW of that line and 1-3" SE of it.
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And as of midnight we're up to 0.9", so another 1/4" or so in the last hour. Temp is down to 24F. Snowfall intensity remains a bit more than light, but not quite moderate with small, fine flakes, indicating we're not getting the best snow growth, with small dendrites/rods falling, so ratios are probably close to 10:1 if I had to guess. Assuming we stay at 1/4" per hour overnight, we'd likely have about 2.5" by 6 am, which is when the coastal low is supposed to be taking over and the models (and mets) are saying intensity will increase, but also bring in more warm air aloft, probably changing our precip to sleet or freezing rain or plain rain by maybe 10 am - but if we can get 3-4 hours of 1/2" per hour snowfall (moderate rate), we could add another 2" to get to around 4". We'll see. Interesting that Lee Goldberg has essentially the NJ TPK from Trenton to Ft. Lee as the 3" line with 3-5" NW of that line and 1-3" SE of it.
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As of 11 pm, we're up to about 5/8" as another 1/4" fell the past hour. It's still 25F, but the snow has increased in intensity the last 10 minutes and it looks like that will continue for awhile, so hopefully we'll start doing better than 1/4" per hour.
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As of 11 pm, we're up to about 5/8" as another 1/4" fell the past hour. It's still 25F, but the snow has increased in intensity the last 10 minutes and it looks like that will continue for awhile, so hopefully we'll start doing better than 1/4" per hour.
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Storm seriously overperforming for DC/Balt as warnings were just issued for 4-6" of snow as 4" is already on the ground in the DC area and 3" in Baltimore. Doesn't guarantee anything here, but it's also overperforming in the Philly/SNJ area, so there's a decent chance of CNJ/NNJ getting at least to the 2-4/3-5" forecast amounts (and maybe the high ends of those or beyond). https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning
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As of 10 pm, we're all the way up to 3/8", so 1/4" the past hour and down to 25F. Obviously, still just snowing lightly, but some better returns are not far away.
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As of 10 pm, we're all the way up to 3/8", so 1/4" the past hour and down to 25F. Obviously, still just snowing lightly, but some better returns are not far away.
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Clearly, they only see a bit of ZR occurring... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 933 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 930 PM update.... No significant changes to the forecast as of 930PM. Snow overspreading the region as expected with transition to ice happening in southernmost zones presently. Tweaked the wording for the WSW to give a bit more range in better agreement with our existing forecast, and spread a bit more ice further north and west into PA and central/northern NJ, but these are minor adjustments since a light icing on top of plowed, treated roads should cause little additional issue... a crust on top of the snow otherwise.
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The ZR scares me if that verifies, even if a fair amount of the ZR doesn't accrete, plus much of us along 95 would be losing 3" or more of snow to ZR - I want it all as snow, at 15:!, lol.
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As of 9 pm, we have a heavy dusting, i.e., about 1/8" of absolute pixie dust, fine grained snow, on all surfaces at 26F.
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As of 9 pm, we have a heavy dusting, i.e., about 1/8" of absolute pixie dust, fine grained snow, on all surfaces at 26F.
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That's what I said!
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People in the Philly burbs already reporting 1.5-2" as of 8:30 pm (Philly forum) and 0.5" in Philly already. Not sure if early, great band or storm overperforming...
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2.1" already?! That bodes well for the storm to overperform for the Philly/SNJ area and hopefully up through the rest of NJ/NYC. No model had the Philly area over 1" as of even 10 pm, let alone 8:30 pm or so.
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Started snowing lightly here around 8:15 pm and we already have a dusting on everything at 26F...
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And the 18Z GFS Op is juicy (3-6" generally), but the 12Z was only 1-2" so we're seeing the high uncertainty express itself. Might be pretty late in the game that we get a good handle on this one (think the main energy comes ashore from the Pacific Weds night).
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NAM and RGEM have consistently shown that freezing rain risk after about 9 am or so, but the globals either have all snow for 95 or a later changover to sleet or freezing rain. Freezing rain sucks, as it's dangerous and aesthetically unpleasing. Saving grace could be that it'll mostly be falling on top of snow, forming a crust and not falling on bare ground forming ice rinks. It also could rob many of us along 95 and even a bit NW/SE of 95 of 0.1-0.2" QPF (or 1-2" of snow), which would also suck. Hopefully the Euro is right on this. Thoughts on how this might play out?
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A little surprised nobody posted the NWS snowfall maps, which show a general 2-4" snowfall with the higher end amounts (3-4") generally N of 276/195 and the lower end (2-3") south of there, although the lesser 2-3" amounts are also forecast from NYC eastward, presumably due to less precip. The NWS is a little more bullish than the NBM, also below, although most of the 6Z models are showing 2-4". The most important message for most people, IMO, is that it will be all snow for the region through about sunrise on Tuesday with temps below 32F (in the mid/upper 20s except near the coast where temps will be closer to 32F), meaning snow will easily accumulate at night with cold temps, leading to very slippery roads everywhere for the Tues am rush hour, as all but treated/heavily traveled roads will likely be snow covered and visibility will be reduced; even the treated major roads will likely be a bit slushy with temps below 32F. Also, people should shovel by sunset on Thursday, especially if they get above 32F and/or get some rain/ZR, since the wet snowpack would then freeze solid after sunset and it's not forecast to go above 32F for most through at least Sunday.
