RU848789

As of 6:45 pm we had 1.75" on the ground at 30F, so another 3/4" in the last hour and right now it's just puking heavy snow (likely >1"/hr rates). Just went out for a drive to White Rose because I love driving in the snow and, duh, we love us some White Rose on a snowy day. All secondary roads are snow covered and icy, while Route 1 was mostly wet, but snow was starting to accumulate on it.

We have been very lucky the past year or two relative to NYC and others in CNJ, so I guess we were due to miss some good bands sooner or later.

Been snowing moderately to heavily for the last hour and as of 5:45 pm we're up to 1" at 31F, so 3/4" in the last hour (had about 1/4" all day sadly). Radar looks great and if we can keep up good intensity through maybe 9 pm we might just get to 4". Big dendrites - very pretty out there. Just got done shoveling and I would imagine my experience is similar to anyone near or SE of 95 - we had slush underneath, then snow on top and it was a bit of work to get the bottom layer up - but it'll be impossible by late tonight, I think. So shovel.

Been snowing moderately to heavily for the last hour and as of 5:45 pm we're up to 1" at 31F, so 3/4" in the last hour (had about 1/4" all day sadly). Radar looks great and if we can keep up good intensity through maybe 9 pm we might just get to 4". Big dendrites - very pretty out there. Just got done shoveling and I would imagine my experience is similar to anyone near or SE of 95 - we had slush underneath, then snow on top and it was a bit of work to get the bottom layer up - but it'll be impossible by late tonight, I think. So shovel.

NWS-Philly updated their discussion and map; snowfall on the map for the event is down maybe 1" for each swath along and SE of 95. At least it's finally snowing moderately to heavily and starting to accumulate, but I have my doubts about getting even to 4" at this point. I need to get outside and stop worrying about all this crap, lol.

Mike - sorry if I've been a little testy, but it's frustrating to not know what you guys are thinking and that 7 pm onward map on the winter weather page without having any updated event snowfall graphic there is very confusing to many, I'm sure. Maybe they could add the event total graphic to that page. Thanks for taking the time to respond.

Thanks, Mike, but you guys have to fix this ASAP as the winter weather page shouldn't show that map and the advisory for Middlesex now says 1-3" of "additional" snow when we haven't gotten any yet. 1-3" of additional snow certainly doesn't get us to an event total of 4-6" in the graphic above or the original 3-5" WWA wording. It's all very confusing and I still don't know what the forecast is.

And if this is real, that would be a major bust since we've only had a dusting so far... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 331 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington- Including the cities of Freehold, Wharton State Forest, Sandy Hook, New Brunswick, and Jackson 331 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. Something weird going on as my point and click still says 2-4" during the daytime and 1-3" at night (after 6 pm). This AfternoonSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 38. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. TonightSnow, mainly before 11pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

WTF is Mt. Holly doing? Who would issue a map starting 3 hours for now at 7 pm?

As of 2:30 pm, we have a dusting on colder surfaces (a bit on some paved surfaces), as we missed most of that last band to the west of us. Snowing lightly and down to 34F.

As of 2:30 pm, we have a dusting on colder surfaces (a bit on some paved surfaces), as we missed most of that last band the west of us - looks like it hit P'way nicely. Snowing lightly and down to 34F.

And presumably that moves ENE towards much of NJ and NYC...

First few flakes just started at 12:15 pm; temp is 37F with a dewpoint of 33F, so will obviously take at least an hour or two to get cold enough to accumulate here, as we don't expect the heavier snow until at least 2-3 pm.

First few flakes just started at 12:15 pm; temp is 37F with a dewpoint of 33F, so will obviously take at least an hour or two to get cold enough to accumulate here, as we don't expect the heavier snow until at least 2-3 pm.

Some 6Z models backed off on precip/snow, but not the Euro/GFS, at least, and many forecasters rely on those two...also could just be a blip, so would imagine no forecast changes at this late point unless some big changes at 12Z...

Didn't notice anyone having posted the NWS maps, so posting them below along with the map of warnings/advisories. Didn't do too badly last night, especially with the prediction on the NWS increasing snowfall amounts at 4 am. Have fun kids - and make sure you shovel by the end of the storm if you get wetter/slushier snow, because that stuff will freeze solid overnight and will be there all week.

That's how you know I'm old, lol, thanks...

Just for giggles, given the increase in snowfall for many models, as well as the broader coverage with more snow and less rain from 95 SE to the coast (at least north of Toms River), I'm expecting the NWS to continue increasing snowfall totals. I'd go for 4-6" within 10-20 miles of 95 from Philly to NYC and for Monmouth County N of 195, with 2-4" for almost all of the rest of NJ, except maybe 1-2" for most of Cape May County and the NJ coast up to LBI. I would also keep the 6-8"+ area NW of 95, but probably move the 6" line SE 10-15 miles to maybe West Chester to New Hope to White Plains and I would have all of LI at 4-6", except eastern Suffolk at 3-4". My guess is that this would mean warnings for the 95-adjacent counties from Philly/SNJ up through NYC and probably advisories for Mommouth, Ocean, SE Burlco and maybe Cumberland, but not Atlantic/Cape May; guessing LI might be 4-6" advisories but not warnings, but close call (like for Middlesex/Mercer, where warning criterion is 6" vs. 4" for counties south of 276/195, so the warnings would make sense for SEPA/SNJ. Been wrong before on guessing NWS moves before, but I find it fun to guess.

And the CMC's failure is complete...

Forgot to post this (from my FB this afternoon): Time for my guesstimate for our house in Metuchen: going with 5.1", which is a bit above the model consensus (and my NWS point-and-click forecast is 4.3"), as I'm riding the Euro AIFS. I don't do storm forecasts, since I'm not a pro and I have no mapping skills. I just comment on other people's forecasts, lol.

Wow, the NWS has already bumped snowfall amounts up a bit along 95 and about 1" cross the board SE of 95 to the coast in NJ and they explain below how this is due to the early 0Z models, as discussed above. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 901 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025 -- Changed Discussion -- Meanwhile near the I-95 corridor, this is where the forecast will be the trickiest in terms of Ptype. With temperatures right around if not just above freezing here as the precip begins, it may actually start as rain before turning over to snow as dynamic and evaporational cooling effects take hold. Then, as the low tracks up the coast through the day, a mix with or change back to rain or sleet may occur in the afternoon for a time before any mixing flips back to snow before ending Sunday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for this area. However, the early signals from the 00Z guidance suite tonight suggests that the amplification will be less than previously anticipated so this would result in a potentially weaker system, leading to more snow further south and east. With this being said, have subtly upped forecast numbers by about an inch or so across the coastal plain early this evening. Considering this, may have to further expand Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings further south and east, but we`ll leave that for the mid-shift to handle in the coming hours.

Amazing consensus at 0Z for the meso/hi-res models I've seen for at least the Philly-NJ-NYC region...NWS is likely going to raise accumulations SE of 95 based on these unless we see something odd with the globals... The NAM shows a general 4-6" event for literally everyone except 2-4" for Cape May and 6-8" for NYC and NE-ward The NAM 3km (high res) shows a general 3-6" even everywhere except for SENJ south of Toms River, which get 1-3". The HRRR shows a 4-6" event for almost everyone, except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River The RAP shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 2-4" for AC to Cape May. The HRW-FV3 (will be the new NAM someday) shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 0-4" for SENJ south of Toms River

Been telling people, especially those who get some mix/slush in their snow pack, to shovel during the event and right after it or else they're going to have a rock solid pack in the morning and yes the salt on the streets will melt some of the snow to make it slushy and that piled up mass will freeze solid wherever the plows leave it - could make tight city streets a nightmare.

Here's the precip field; of course verification awaits (which is highly likely overall - there are always parts of a forecast that don't work perfectly for every model), but this is impressive

Hands down the best performing model for this event, based on memory, so I was curious and made these two GIFs of the surface low placement at 0Z Sunday and the 24 hour precip field through 06Z Monday and the consistency over 8 runs is astonishing and iirc, this consistency goes back 4-5 days.