RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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It's a kind of forecast bust, as per my recent post, since the snow predicted didn't materialize, but the mass of frozen precip that fell (0.5" of sleet is about the water equivalent of 1.5" of snow at 3:!) was spot on and the impacts have been substantial on the roads with regard to accidents and slips/falls, so definitely not a "big picture impact" bust at all.
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Thanks for the kind words. I was only using the word "bust" with reference to the forecast of 1-2" of "snow" by the NWS (their map had all of CNJ/NNJ in their 1-2" swath and point and click forecasts were around 1.2-1.5" for most) and many others for CNJ and beyond, as well as the predictions by most models showing 1-2" to 2-4" of snow, but the forecast was definitely not a bust with regard to impact, as we both agree that sleet is just as impactful to travel/removal as snow (maybe moreso as it melts more slowly), as sleet is just as difficult to drive/walk on as snow (maybe worse) and there are many, many accidents being reported. In hindsight it's interesting to look at the NAM in more detail, as it was the only one really showing <1" of snow due to an earlier changeover to sleet. This can be seen in the 0Z run last night, where the Pivotal snowmap shows <0.5" of snow for most, but the Tropical Tidbits map was showing ~2" of "snow" for most of NJ - but on TT, sleet is reported as 10:! ratio snow by the model, whereas Pivotal doesn't count sleet at all. 2" of sleet would be about 2/3" of "snow" on the ground given about a 3:1 sleet:liquid ratio (or even 1/2" at 2:1 ratio; sleet is often 2-4:1 ratio and I don't know what this sleet is), which is not far off my 0.4" and reports of 0.5" or more of sleet for many. By inference, the NAM was predicting about 2/3" of mostly sleet. I think there are some service providers that give actual snow and sleet accumulation forecasts, but I don't have access to those (I think NCEP has them), so I had to do the comparison/analysis by inference.
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Up to 32F but still sleeting with some freezing rain mixed in with 0.4" of mostly sleet on the ground. Looks like this is about over for us, as temps are above 32F to my S/SE/E and even NE. Temps still 30F or less from about New Hope to Somerville to Madison and NW of that line, so more frozen to go there.
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Still 31F here with sleet falling, but 33F reported in Carteret about 7-8 miles to my ENE - wonder if being a bit further west matters for this one with regard to being a little colder. Paved surfaces are very slippery.
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Everything is coated with a very slippery layer of snow/sleet and any untreated surfaces are treacherous; even the brined road we live on is very slippery. As I've said countless times, when it comes to impacts on travel and removal, frozen mass is way more important than depth (except for visibility impacts which are nil for sleet); also, sleet melts more slowly than snow once temps go above 32F, given the much lower surface area to volume/mass ratio (less surface area is exposed to warmer air per unit mass). Up to 31F now and worried about freezing rain coming, although still a mixture of maybe 80% sleet/20% snow.
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In my experience measuring sleet, it's more like a 3:1 ratio, although that ratio can range from 2-4:1. https://www.wral.com/story/how-to-measure-rain-snow-and-sleet/21158392/
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Snow/sleet mix here at 30F with about 1/4" of snow/sleet on the ground as of 5:30 am. Radar looks juicy. Wasn't supposed to be sleet yet. If we've already had a permanent changeover that's way early and means we're likely not going to get more than 1/2" or so of sleet (~1.5" of snow "equivalent" by mass). Sleet being reported in most CNJ locations from what I've seen. NAM for the win, if so, and a significant model and forecast bust for most, IMO, as the changeover to sleet wasn't supposed to occur until 7-8 am. I wonder if this also means we might get more freezing rain than expected, which would suck.
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Thought this might help and not take up 10 pages with maps, lol... 12Z models are in and are snowier and a bit wetter, in general. Tough forecast. Could see the NWS maybe bumping the initial snowfall thump up a little bit, but maybe not, as perhaps they have confidence in the warm air aloft coming in sooner, holding down snow/sleet amounts to the 1-2" forecast for most N of 276/195. We'll see. For the global models, the Euro and CMC are both about 2-4" for folks N of 276/195 through NYC metro (and 1-2" south of there for Philly and northern SNJ), UK is 3-5" for the whole Philly-NJ-NYC region, while the GFS is 1-2" along/N of 276/195, but 2-4" for NENJ/NYC. For the meso/short-term models, the HRRR and RAP are very bullish, still, with 3-5" for the entire region (a bit less for far SNJ), the RGEM shows 2-3" N of 276/195 (1" or so south of there) The NAM and NAM 3km are huge outliers showing <1" south of 80, with a bit of freezing rain, but mostly rain falling (1/4-1/2") and 1-2" of snow to freezing rain and rain north of there. Hard to take them too seriously given how much of an outlier they are - would be a huge coup if they were right. Almost all of the models showing a few inches or more of snow above do eventually show a changeover to sleet and rain (1/4" or more of rain as temps go above freezing in the mid/late morning for most) with some showing a brief transition featuring freezing rain first, especially along/NW of 95.
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The 06Z NAM is even more of an outlier now, showing very little snow south of 84, but having substantial ZR for many south of 84 down towards Philly, followed by a soaking 1/2"+ rain (which we could use). I know it can score a coup sometimes, especially in WAA/mix events, so it's worth watching how this plays out.
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As many have said, great signal for a snowstorm on Tues/Weds. The three major ensemble means just look so pretty side-by-side, as it's not that often one sees such consistently snowy output across all 3 models 7+ days out, especially given that the ensembles usually have a bunch of member runs with little to no snow that drag the mean down a lot, but not here. Is there a betting market for snowstorms? I also like The WPC 7-day outlook already having most of our area in the 50-75% probability of at least 2.5" of snow, which is almost unheard of this far out - as well as the comment from WPC's Cody Snell in the Twitter thread below, saying the last time he could recall a situation like this was Jan-2016... https://x.com/cody__snell/status/1887014767581389293
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All true, but the bottom line is that it's a close call on most model soundings and will likely be a close call in reality, plus no model in the world can get the entire column thermal profile exactly right at each time step, so this will be more of a radar and observational event than most. Would love all snow/ sleet with minimal ZR and rain...
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GFS and UK vs. the world for decent snow south of 78, except of course for the goofball NAM with snow only south of 276/195...
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Thanks! A friend in town said about 1/4". We've had 4 events with <1" that have added up to 1.5", so every little bit helps. Up to 10.7" on the winter.
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What did we get so far and let me know how that last band looks...damn I hate being away from home when it snows, lol...
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Agree it's very likely a bad prediction, but it's not wrong until it's wrong.
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Hey neighbor - I'm in Florida until Tuesday, so need some intel on tonight's snow. Radar looks decent right now and a friend in town said we had a dusting, but I'm worried none of my friends is going to measure for me It's. all on your shoulders now, lol.
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still only out to 180 on Pivotal, lol..nice run though - lots of opportunities for good snows...
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As I just said elsewhere, who hacked the GFS? Fess up, lol...
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And show saw this coming? UK for 2/5-6...
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So, where do we sign up for this? We're inside 7 days now, so no longer quite fantasy land, but still a long way to go.
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We did get 10.6" from late Dec through late January, so not nothing, even if not as much as many thought we would get...
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GFS has been an outlier, relative to the AIFS/Euro/CMC up through 18Z. Of course that could change and it kind of just did with the CMC taking all the precip south of our area, such that it's gone by the time temps drop below 32F for our area, which was a surprise. Looks like we'll need to wait a few model cycles to have confidence in a forecast.
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Was gorgeous today. We play soccer every Sunday (full 11 on 11 game) morning and it was perfect: temps in the upper 20s with ~2-3" of dry, still powdery snow still on the ground, since it really hadn't been above 32F all week, and no wind. We had a blast. And I also got in a couple of rounds of disc golf in the snow on Wednesday and Friday - was chilly, but not uncomfortably cold with a few layers - it's a great way to get a decent workout, while playing a fun game and enjoying the beautiful snowfall.
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Didn't see it posted, but the 18Z AIFS has 1/2-3/4" of QPF from midday Friday through about sunrise Saturday with temps in the 40s everywhere south of 84 (and above 32F up to about 90) with temps not crashing towards 32F south of 84 until the precip is over. That's barely even a cold rain. I know it's 5+ days out, but this one is going to need a lot of help to become a threat for anyone south of 84, IMO, especially with the 18Z Euro and 12Z CMC showing similar surface depictions (albeit with the CMC being a bit slower). The Friday afternoon/evening start time would also likely mean the record dry January wouldn't verify for many locations - as per the models.
