RU848789

Hey neighbor - I'm in Florida until Tuesday, so need some intel on tonight's snow. Radar looks decent right now and a friend in town said we had a dusting, but I'm worried none of my friends is going to measure for me It's. all on your shoulders now, lol.

still only out to 180 on Pivotal, lol..nice run though - lots of opportunities for good snows...

As I just said elsewhere, who hacked the GFS? Fess up, lol...

And show saw this coming? UK for 2/5-6...

So, where do we sign up for this? We're inside 7 days now, so no longer quite fantasy land, but still a long way to go.

We did get 10.6" from late Dec through late January, so not nothing, even if not as much as many thought we would get...

GFS has been an outlier, relative to the AIFS/Euro/CMC up through 18Z. Of course that could change and it kind of just did with the CMC taking all the precip south of our area, such that it's gone by the time temps drop below 32F for our area, which was a surprise. Looks like we'll need to wait a few model cycles to have confidence in a forecast.

Was gorgeous today. We play soccer every Sunday (full 11 on 11 game) morning and it was perfect: temps in the upper 20s with ~2-3" of dry, still powdery snow still on the ground, since it really hadn't been above 32F all week, and no wind. We had a blast. And I also got in a couple of rounds of disc golf in the snow on Wednesday and Friday - was chilly, but not uncomfortably cold with a few layers - it's a great way to get a decent workout, while playing a fun game and enjoying the beautiful snowfall.

Didn't see it posted, but the 18Z AIFS has 1/2-3/4" of QPF from midday Friday through about sunrise Saturday with temps in the 40s everywhere south of 84 (and above 32F up to about 90) with temps not crashing towards 32F south of 84 until the precip is over. That's barely even a cold rain. I know it's 5+ days out, but this one is going to need a lot of help to become a threat for anyone south of 84, IMO, especially with the 18Z Euro and 12Z CMC showing similar surface depictions (albeit with the CMC being a bit slower). The Friday afternoon/evening start time would also likely mean the record dry January wouldn't verify for many locations - as per the models.

What actually goes on is that cold air has been shown to limit the performance of the mucosal immunity system, i.e., the nose and mouth, where most viruses first make their entry into people and this was only truly demonstrated (in vitro - not in vivo yet, from what I've read) over the last 2-3 years. Lower humidity (which we see in the winter, especially indoors with forced air heat) can also enhance viral transmission due to expelled viral particles (from coughs, sneezes and even breathing) remaining suspended in the air longer. And, of course, there's still one of the primary drivers for more viral infections in winter: people simply being together in close quarters more often for longer periods, which increases the "dose" of viral particles that someone could be exposed to from an infected person, even prior to them having symptoms (which was a major issue for COVID). https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-minute-why-do-people-get-sick-with-viruses-in-the-winter/

Surprised not more chatter about the 6Z AIFS, which shows about 3/4-1" QPF falling with temps <32F for all but the immediate coast in our region on 2/1. Model has been pretty deadly recently, but this is still 10 days away...

I can't imagine the criteria for Sussex/Warren/Morris being higher than for NYC metro.

Interesting...and another post by the NWS-NOLA in that thread, below, explains the measuring location issue about the old record of 8.2" in 1895 being at a discontinued site and that they're evaluating potential records. Clearly, many reports >9" in the city and probably way better pic/video proof of them now than in 1895. On another note, how are you getting the twitter post thumbnails to appear on this site? I recall reading one had to modify the URL but don't remember the details. https://x.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1881830656860422395

Would be a shame if New Orleans doesn't actually break their 8.2" record from 1895, as I'm seeing "only" 8.0" being reported by TWC - could be the official NOLA site didn't get the heaviest bands that others in the city, who got ~12" or more got. Or maybe the Central Park zookeeper was relocated to NOLA. https://x.com/HeatherZWeather/status/1881864306419261762

Or the "snow won't accumulate on the warm ground" posts, lol.

Measuring bust you mean. LGA was 3.6" and I saw social media reports of 3+" in Manhattan. I get JFK being a bit low (2.2") right on the water, but CPK/LGA are at the same latitude and while the UHI is real, I just find it hard to believe it's that much stronger in CPK than LGA.

As of 9:45 pm we had 3.5" OTG as intensity lessened more quickly than expected. I then shoveled, which wasn't too bad since I had shoveled the slushy bottom layer earlier and near the end of shoveling we got a bonus extended snow shower, picking up another 0.1" for a final total of 3.6". A trained spotter in Metuchen reported the same 3.5" as me at 9:38 pm and I saw a report of 3.5" in SI a few miles away. A little disappointing vs. the 4-6" NWS forecast early this morning (and my 5.1" prediction yesterday), but still a fun storm and everything looks great. Season total is up to 10.4", which is close to normal for this point in the winter.

As of 9:45 pm we had 3.5" OTG as intensity lessened more quickly than expected. I then shoveled, which wasn't too bad since I had shoveled the slushy bottom layer earlier and near the end of shoveling we got a bonus extended snow shower, picking up another 0.1" for a final total of 3.6". A trained spotter in Metuchen reported the same 3.5" as me at 9:38 pm and I saw a report of 3.5" in SI a few miles away. A little disappointing vs. the 4-6" NWS forecast early this morning (and my 5.1" prediction yesterday), but still a fun storm and everything looks great. Season total is up to 10.4", which is close to normal for this point in the winter.

lol, I didn't see the post above this one from you, so I was wondering what you meant. You should still measure though, as the bands have been inconsistent...

As of 8:45 pm we have 3.3" OTG at 28F, as temps are starting to drop more quickly. That's about 0.6" the last hour, as intensity wasn't as consistently high. Guessing we have another 20 min of moderate/heavy snow, then maybe another 30 min of light/moderate snow after that, so thinking we'll get to 3.7-3.8". Still a cool storm and we're going to have this snow around for a couple of weeks, which is nice (for me).

As of 8:45 pm we have 3.3" OTG at 28F, as temps are starting to drop more quickly. That's about 0.6" the last hour, as intensity wasn't as consistently high. Guessing we have another 20 min of moderate/heavy snow, then maybe another 30 min of light/moderate snow after that, so thinking we'll get to 3.7-3.8". Still a cool storm and we're going to have this snow around for a couple of weeks, which is nice (for me).

As of 7:45 pm, we have 2.75" OTG at 30F, for 1"/hr the past hour and it's still heavy snow and is definitely higher ratio snow than earlier, as it's drier and has better formed dendrites, so I think we're going to get to 3.5-4.0" assuming we get another hour or so of decent snowfall. Just wish we didn't miss so much earlier today and for about 20 minutes about 90 minutes ago when we were in a bit of a snow hole with light to moderate snow when everyone around us had heavy echoes. It happens.

As of 7:45 pm, we have 2.75" OTG at 30F, for 1"/hr the past hour and it's still heavy snow and is definitely higher ratio snow than earlier, as it's drier and has better formed dendrites, so I think we're going to get to 3.5-4.0" assuming we get another hour or so of decent snowfall. Just wish we didn't miss so much earlier today and for about 20 minutes about 90 minutes ago when we were in a bit of a snow hole with light to moderate snow when everyone around us had heavy echoes. It happens.

My issue with them earlier wasn't about the forecast, itself, but about the poor communication of that forecast to the public at their 4 pm shift change, where they put out confusing graphics (the snow from 7 pm onward when it was 4 pm and no event snowfall update) and text products showing a WWA saying 1-3" additional snow at 3:30 pm for Middlesex County when nobody in the county had more than 1/2", leading one to believe we'd only get 1-3" total, when the AFD was still saying 3-6" for the 95 corridor as was my point-and-click forecast, which was 4" at that point. At the end of the day I probably have 2" now and will likely get another 2" vs. the advisory this morning saying 3-5" (and my point and click and their 4 am snow map saying I'd get about 5.3"). I have no issue with getting 4" if that's what we get or even just 3+" - but they need to improve their graphics/text communications.

As of 6:45 pm we had 1.75" on the ground at 30F, so another 3/4" in the last hour and right now it's just puking heavy snow (likely >1"/hr rates). Just went out for a drive to White Rose because I love driving in the snow and, duh, we love us some White Rose on a snowy day. All secondary roads are snow covered and icy, while Route 1 was mostly wet, but snow was starting to accumulate on it.