RU848789

"GFS, your failure is complete." Spoken in the voice of Darth Vader. As an aside, the system told me I couldn't post a GIF showing these 3 images as it was too large, but I was able to paste the 3 images in separately. Seems a bit odd.

Love the "New and Improved" NAM, lol, i.e., the RRFS, which will be replacing both NAMs sometime next year (supposedly).

My point was that they could've issued a 72-hour map (that's as far out as they issue them, which I'm fine with) at 18Z that went through 18Z Sunday, which is past the end of the storm, but they waited until 0Z to do so. Plus, I think issuing a map through only 12Z Sunday, without clearly noting that snow wasn't over yet is more than a little misleading and something they shouldn't do, IMO.

The NWS finally issued their first snowfall map that goes through the end of the storm and, as expected, they're generally in the 1-3" range with the lower amounts well NW of 95 (less precip) and the higher end of the range along and SE of 95 (and SW of Philly), but anyone who has seen the models knows that 3-5" amounts are still on the table if the coastal stays close enough to the coast. Good NWS discussion highlighting the range of possibilities is below. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 231 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 The forecast gets more complicated for the Saturday night through Sunday period as there will be several different things at play. In the upper levels, there will be an upper level trough digging as it moves from the Great Lakes region towards the east coast. Meanwhile at the surface level, there will be an arctic front pushing into the area from the NW as low pressure pivots through Quebec into northern New England. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that a wave of low pressure will form farther south near the front as it`s moving through the mid Atlantic region Saturday night into Sunday morning. However there are differences regarding the strength and track of this system. The latest GFS continues to indicate that the low may not really get going until it`s off the coast and if this were to verify, most of the precip with the system would be near and south of the I-95 corridor but mainly fall as snow. The NAM is at the other end of the spectrum indicating a stronger low forming near Delmarva. This would keep the heaviest precip with the system north of the urban corridor with lighter amounts and more of a snow/rain mix farther south. The 12z RGEM lies in between these two extremes. There`s also a wide variation in the ensembles. Given this continuing uncertainty, we largely stayed close to the NBM. And the bottom line with this forecast is that we do expect precip to move in either late Saturday evening or overnight Saturday night. It should be mainly snow except near the coast where some mixing with rain is likely...especially at the onset. And if arrives early enough Saturday evening, some rain or mixing could also occur near the urban corridor. The bulk of the precip falls overnight Saturday night through the first half of Sunday morning. This had been looking like a light precip event but some of the latest guidance has also beefed up QPF amounts into the .25 to .50 inch range. The big questions though are where the highest amounts will fall and how this will translate to snowfall. We admittedly still lean a little on the conservative side with forecast snow amounts and continue to indicate a fairly widespread 1-3 inches falling across the area. There is the potential though that some areas could see snow amounts in the 3 to 5 inch range given the general uptick in forecast QPF. The big question though is where these amounts occur. A more northern track would result in these higher occuring over eastern PA into northern NJ where a more southern track would favor higher amounts along the coastal plain. At this point, the main thing to stress is this continuing uncertainty in the details despite overall moderate confidence in there being an accumulating snowfall event affecting the area.

That's why I almost always post the 10:1 maps, as those give you easy-to-calculate QPF too and to do one's own ratio adjustments, as Kuchera generally sucks as a snow prediction algorithm.

This can't be a serious post. GFS has been all over the map, while the Euro and AIFS have been fairly consistent for a light to moderate snowfall for a few runs and the CMC came on board at 12Z and the UK almost did too (after showing nada for several runs). And the NAM/RGEM at 84 hours (yes, questionable) look very similar to the Euro at 84 hours with snow on our doorstep at 06Z Sunday. Certainly not a lock yet 3+ days out, but confidence is much greater than 24 hours ago.

Yes it is and AIFS is good too, while the volatile GFS remains all over the place. I like these more local maps, but keep in mind that this map still includes an inch or two N of 84 for many today, but it's just the Sunday event for anywhere near and SE of 95.

Looks like thread time... Edit: just saw the new thread...

Looks like the Euro Op is likely on the NW side of the ensemble envelope, given the Ens mean...

Bad track for most of us, but at least there's a storm on the Euro...

Well, given our recent track record, betting against snow isn't the dumbest thing in the world, lol.

AIFS has been fairly consistent on this threat. Sign me up. Note that there's a few to several inches of snow before this storm N of 84 on this map.

This might wake a few folks up. Long way to go, but nice to see...

We had our first snowfall of the winter, getting 1/4" of snow overnight - woke up around 1:30 am to see the end of it. Nice.

SWS just issued for 95 and coastal areas from SNJ through NYC/LI for the chance of some light freezing drizzle that could cause a light glaze...

There's no easy answer, although I agree that the DMA map (2nd map below) including the Lehigh Valley and Poconos seems off, as DMA's (Designated Market Areas - basically TV when it was broadcast TV in particular) are generally supposed to reflect where places get their local news/weather and I don't think most in the Lehigh Valley/Poconos are getting their local news/weather from NYC stations - thought these generally got this from Philly stations. On the other hand the metro statistical area map (first map below) doesn't include Warren County, which seems odd, as that county is definitely NYC-focused. Regardless the one thing I can say is that using the NWS CWA office maps for forums would be a disaster, as those aren't keyed into where people get their local news/weather at all. Best example of that is not having Middlesex County, which actually borders NYC, in the NYC NWS CWA - at a bare minimum any county bordering NYC ought to be in any NYC Metro weather forum (and NWS office).

Well, it is in Ulster County, which is part of the NYC DMA, as is LBI, in Ocean County, so if one uses the NYC DMA it's part of NYC Metro. Not everyone uses the DMA, of course. It's also closer to Central Park than the east end of LI, which I think everyone would consider part of NYC Metro.

Wasn't too surprised we didn't get any flakes here, but would've thought Garwood would get some...

With temps along 95 being below 32F before sunrise and maybe 1" of snow falling, there could be accumulation on roads which impacts the morning rush hour before temps go above 32F and precip changes to rain and the indirect sun aids in melting.

First NWS snowfall map - looks like the NBM, i.e., a compromise between most of the models showing little to no snow along/SE of 95 and the Euro/AIFS camp which are obviously more bullish on 95 snowfall.

Who do we have to bribe to make this happen, lol...

Yep and we had 6" on 2/12/24 and 11.25" on 2/17/24 (the CNJ mesoscale deathband snow)

I've never seen a chaser/journalist actually standing in anything more than about 100 mph winds - if you have footage of someone actually standing in verified 150 mph winds, show it. Hurricanes usually have moderately greater winds over water before landfall than actually measured on land, due to frictional effects. I'm not downplaying anything.

150 mph winds are 150 mph winds, regardless of "source," plus the radial inflow and vertical winds in both types of storms (vertical motion exists in both kinds of storms) are far lower than the tangential/horizontal winds and I'm certain standing in 150 mph winds from either source will lead to injury or death. However, it is true that the rate of change of the wind speed in a tornado is usually greater than in a hurricane due to the shear/torque component of tornadoes and that can exacerbate damage, but the far bigger component is the actual horizontal wind speed. Also, Cat 5 hurricanes have a lot more mesoscale vortices than weaker hurricanes and these produce more turbulence/localized shear and can behave more like tornadoes.

Landfall... Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MAKES LANDFALL IN JAMAICA... ...ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE LANDFALLS ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches). THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection. The next position update will be provided with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 78.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES