RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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Agree on all counts, hence my "lol." The only thing that gives at least a little credence that we could have a bit of snow in some places around then is the CPC's forecast for that period to be well below normal in temp.
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Only 11 days out and it's not the GFS, lol...
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Another virtual monster snowstorm on the 6Z GFS on 4/3. That's about 48" from the GFS over the last 2-3 weeks, lol. At least for this one the AIFS is showing 1-2" NW of 95, which could be plausible.
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How fitting this would be for most of NYC Metro, lol...
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Not only did that not happen, but the Euro is now showing an inch or two along/N of 80 at 18Z, instead of well N of 84 at 12Z. It's not being a weenie to simply point out what models are showing. There are still no other models on board and 95 snow is still a very low probability, but not zero - and both the NWS Philly and NYC offices are now mentioning the potential for at least inland snow for the first time.
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Not sure I can recall a single model being such an outlier for so long and this close to the event (72 hrs). It almost has to be wrong, but...
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What makes you think I am? I think I've made it clear that this is a very low probability event for 95, at least, but it's not a zero probability event, as snow is obviously possible in late March. Would need to see support from other models to start to be truly interested in this.
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Some much needed rains...
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12Z GFS still shows snow for Friday, which is not that far off. Of course, it's still alone showing snow south of 84 - would be amazing if somehow it's right.
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Probably, but it's enough to keep you and a few hundred other desperate winter weather weenies hanging on for another few days, just like the threat for 3/25...
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Great data, thanks! I like looking at max wind gusts, like this graphic, more than mean wind speeds, since I think people "feel" like it's windier than normal based on how often we have very gusty winds, whereas I don't think most are thinking about whether the mean wind speed is 12 mph or 10 mph over a month.
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And this is only 4-5 days out on the GFS, with other models showing snow only further north during this time - and even the GFS ensemble showing that, too (indicating the Op is probably an outlier), but ya never know...
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Surprised nobody posted these last night. Yes, it's still a longshot at 8-9 days out, but it's not impossible to have snow in late March and it's nice to see two models showing some snow.
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Many people on social media making comments about the past few months being windier than normal, but I haven't been able to find any data to evaluate whether or not that's true (the NWS Now Data pages don't seem to include wind data). Is that something anyone arounf here tracks and if so is there some data to share to illuminate whether it has, actually, been windier than normal for the past few months (maybe for D/J/F)? Thanks!
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12Z Euro, GFS, GDPS and AIFS all show interior snowfall in NEPA/NWNJ/SENY and New England on 3/25-26 - and not too far from the 95 corridor. It's at least worth watching, since we know that most late March events never look like much until a day or two before.
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I'm just happy there's the potential for a winter storm, but we'll obviously need to see other models to come on board before believing the outlier GFS is correct. And if somehow it were correct, look at that snowfall gradient from over a foot along 95 to just a few inches 20-30 miles SE of 95, due to sleet and some rain (it's not all rain - Pivotal maps don't count sleet). This also isn't 10 days out anymore - precip starts in about 5.5 days.
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I love cold weather, but I have a disc golf tournament tomorrow at 10 am at Allaire State Park in Monmouth County. I don't actually mind the cold and even snow for disc golf, but it's going to be windy and I hate the wind.
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Just noticed that Pivotal finally has snowfall maps for the AIFS, so I don't have to piece together temp/precip maps as a guess anymore.
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Don - I'm guessing you'd be able to find the answer to this question: how many times has NYC had below average D/J/F, but still been below normal in snowfall for that 3-month period? I would imagine that's unusual. TIA.
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Final measurement around 10:45 pm was 0.6" (was poker night and we just finished, so I wasn't getting out to measure that often, lol). Brings us to 16.5" this season. Beautiful light fluffy snow - must be 14-15:1 ratios. About to go broom this one away.
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0.5" as of 9:10 pm - love that last band - gorgeous out there...hope to make 0.6-0.7"
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up to 3/8" with a nice little band over me...
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snowing lightly with 1/4" otg - might get to 1/2". Very slick.
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Up to 0.1" of snow and that was a very important 0.1" because it brought my seasonal total from 15.9" to 16.0". Every little bit, lol.
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We now have a whole light dusting on all surfaces now, lol; plenty of reports of 1/4-1/2" or so in places like Branchburg, Basking Ridge, Bethlehem, Quakertown, Morristown, etc. Supposedly, we'll see occasional bands like the one we just saw through 8-9 pm - really want to get 1/2" if possible, just to pretty things up...
