RU848789

I'm just happy there's the potential for a winter storm, but we'll obviously need to see other models to come on board before believing the outlier GFS is correct. And if somehow it were correct, look at that snowfall gradient from over a foot along 95 to just a few inches 20-30 miles SE of 95, due to sleet and some rain (it's not all rain - Pivotal maps don't count sleet). This also isn't 10 days out anymore - precip starts in about 5.5 days.

I love cold weather, but I have a disc golf tournament tomorrow at 10 am at Allaire State Park in Monmouth County. I don't actually mind the cold and even snow for disc golf, but it's going to be windy and I hate the wind.

Just noticed that Pivotal finally has snowfall maps for the AIFS, so I don't have to piece together temp/precip maps as a guess anymore.

Don - I'm guessing you'd be able to find the answer to this question: how many times has NYC had below average D/J/F, but still been below normal in snowfall for that 3-month period? I would imagine that's unusual. TIA.

Final measurement around 10:45 pm was 0.6" (was poker night and we just finished, so I wasn't getting out to measure that often, lol). Brings us to 16.5" this season. Beautiful light fluffy snow - must be 14-15:1 ratios. About to go broom this one away.

0.5" as of 9:10 pm - love that last band - gorgeous out there...hope to make 0.6-0.7"

up to 3/8" with a nice little band over me...

snowing lightly with 1/4" otg - might get to 1/2". Very slick.

Up to 0.1" of snow and that was a very important 0.1" because it brought my seasonal total from 15.9" to 16.0". Every little bit, lol.

We now have a whole light dusting on all surfaces now, lol; plenty of reports of 1/4-1/2" or so in places like Branchburg, Basking Ridge, Bethlehem, Quakertown, Morristown, etc. Supposedly, we'll see occasional bands like the one we just saw through 8-9 pm - really want to get 1/2" if possible, just to pretty things up...

Light flurries here - not enough to accumulate...

Saw this elsewhere, which supposedly shows flakes where snow is actually falling, which is cool - don't have RadarScope Pro, though.

Do we know if the snow on the radar is hitting the ground in NWNJ/Lehigh Valley?

I'll take that bet...we have model consensus on at least 1/2" for NYC Metro with some places getting 1"+ (and those places can't be predicted well for a mesoscale event like this one). Models can be way off days in advance, but I doubt they're all wrong <8 hours from the start of an event, even a minor one.

Even the globals (especially the Euro/CMC) are showing 0.5-1"+ this afternoon/evening N of 276/195. It would be nice...

The NWS has come around to Walt's thinking (which Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 agrees with, too) as their interactive point/click map now shows 0.5-1.0" north of 276/195 in PA/NJ/NY (and 1-2" in the Poconos) vs. 1/4-1/2" south of that line, even though their official map only says <1". Still pretty minor, but as the NWS said, "with cold temps, roads could get slippery especially after sunset this evening." This would apply for areas that get more than 1/2", given temps in the upper 20s. Also, the most recent 12Z mesoscale/short-term models (NAM, HRRR, RAP, RGEM), which, in theory, should do better with a minor mesoscale event like this, are all showing 0.5-1"+ for areas N of 276/195. The NWS map shows 0.5" for my house, but I'll go with a hugely overperforming 0.7", lol. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=PHI Also, for those curious, this was a big storm for NE NC and SE VA and extreme southern MD/DE, as per the map below. The VA Tidewater area got 8-12", the northern OBX got 3-5" as did the Research Triangle and Richmond areas, and extreme southern MD/DE got 4-6", while areas in western VA/NC got a fair amount less than forecast as did northern VA/MD, with DC actually shut out, as was all of NJ, except Cape May which got <1/2". Was really fascinating to see the steep gradient across the southern half of Sussex Co, DE, going from 0 to 5" over a 20 mile stretch from NW to SE.

And the Euro joins the party for our blizzard tomorrow, lol...

0Z NAMs not bad - key message is that there will be some bands - where the 1"+ amounts will be is a crapshoot, of course...

Any snow reports from Cape May? Looks like they've had a few decent spells of snow on the radar...

Party time, sign me up - and it's our monthly poker night and this month it's at my house in Metuchen (we'll hit 40 years next year), so even better!

Latest RAP saves us, lol, although it is interesting to note that the meso models are a bit more bullish for the Philly-NYC area (1/2-1" for most) than the globals (0-1/2" for most. 1/2" would be nice, but so would an overperforming 1", given how this storm has turned out.

I get the disappointment in the season, but at the same time I've had 12 measurable snowfalls totaling 16", albeit 4 of them were <1" and 6 of them were 1-1.5", with only 2 of them in the 3-4" range - but all of them made it look wintry for at least a few hours to a day. Have had at least a bit of snow coverage much of the winter post 12/20, as it's been cold, preserving the small snowfalls. If we can get another 1" tomorrow and a couple of 3-4" storms before the winter is over, I'm up to about normal.

NAM 12Z ULL snows from about 4 pm to midnight put down 0.5-1.0" for most and even over 1.0" for some...it's at least something...

Similar to 18Z for inland areas, but a lot more snow for SENJ and far ELI. Just need the ULL to connect more to the low via an IVT to get those 1-2" amounts in NEPA to make it through NJ/NYC. I would guess we'll see a lot of movement in those ULL blobs/bands of snow NW of the NJ coast and ELI. Congratulations Cape May and Montauk, lol.

If you end up being right about the ULL-IVT driven minor snowfall all along, we'll all owe you big hugs! Salvaging an inch of powder out of this debacle would still be very nice.