RU848789

For Thanksgiving snow, our region hasn’t had much, but in 1989 4.4" fell in NYC, 6.0" fell in Newark and 4.6 fell in Philly from Weds night into T-giving. Before that one has to go back to 1938 for snow in NYC on Thanksgiving, when 3.9” fell. On average we get November snowfall once every 3 years, with the last major one being 11/15/2018, when 4-7” fell across most of the Philly-NJ-NYC corridor and NW of there (less towards the coast) - that was the storm that shut down much of the region as the snowfall was significantly underestimated by almost everyone, despite the Euro/NAM (EE rule, lol) being bullish on snow for the 95 corridor. Loved that storm, as I got out of work in Rahway by 2 pm, as I knew things were getting bad, and it only took me 30 min to get home (10 miles), while people who left an hour later took hours to get anywhere. https://en.as.com/latest_news/will-it-snow-in-new-york-on-thanksgiving-when-was-the-last-time-it-snowed-in-november-n/

The most interesting observation from the 12Z suite, so far, is that the GFS put the crack pipe down on the insane NNJ/nearby NEPA snowfall amounts and is much more in line with the other models. Will be happy to see mood flakes in the Edison area and would be ecstatic with a little coating from a heavier burst or two.

Nada on the CMC, but it's 10 days out...

I'd say a thread would be good. At ~4 am, the NWS put out a more bullish snowfall map, much more in line with the NBM map and they also updated their rainfall map, which is also a bit more bullish (I also love when they include large parts of the NWS-NYC CWA in their maps). Still room for changes, especially on the snowfall side of things, as the NWS-Philly mentioned in their discussion with regard to more snow possible for the Lehigh Valley and NWNJ and even a bit of measurable snow down to the 95 corridor; see the part I bolded below in the NWS-Philly discussion. Folks need to remember that even wet snow with borderline surface temps can accumulate quickly if the snowfall rate is fairly heavy, exceeding the melting rate and with much of the possible snow falling before sunrise on Friday, there won't be a solar insolation component to melting. On the flip side an extended period of light to moderate snow even at night with surface temps above 32F will largely result in white rain with minimal accumulations (and this is especially true if during the day). https://www.weather.gov/phi/ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 656 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Strong low pressure will be located near New York City Thursday evening, with strong and gusty northwest winds funneling cooler air southeastward across the region. The upper low will remain to our west in the upper Ohio Valley, and as that feature heads east, the surface low will actually retrograde slightly, with it becoming "captured" over our northern areas early Friday. Strong forcing over our northern zones relatively close to the surface low and northeast of the upper low will result in continued precipitation through the night, with precipitation tapering off further south and mostly dry conditions in the Delmarva. With the cold advection at the surface and aloft, odds favor a transition to heavy wet snow across the higher terrain, especially above 1500 feet on the Pocono Plateau and possibly a few higher ridges elsewhere in eastern PA and northern NJ. With the best odds of heavy wet snow being across the Poconos, have issued the first Winter Storm Watch of the season for Carbon and Monroe counties, specifically for at and above 1500 feet. Lower elevations may see far less snowfall, in fact the lowest valleys even up there may fail to get an entire inch of accumulation with this elevation-dependent system. As this will be a heavy wet snow with significant wind in the 20-30 mph range, a big potential is downed trees and power lines. Travel Thursday night in particular is discouraged. There are a few simulations which imply snow could reach significantly further south across our region, even down to the I-95 corridor and Philly metro, particularly the Canadian models. For the moment we`ve mostly discounted that guidance as being outliers, but will be keeping it in mind as we watch further progress with this system. Have allowed for some mixing across areas just north and west of the I-95 corridor Thursday night into early Friday, but little to no accumulation is currently expected outside the Poconos. Either way, brisk and cold will be the them for Thursday night, with lows in the 30s for most, upper 20s perhaps in the higher terrain of the Poconos. For the bulk of Friday, the surface low will remain captured under the upper low over our region, resulting in continued showers. Enough insolation likely develops to allow a transition from a rain/snow mix to just plain rain at the lower elevations, with significantly less accumulation in the higher terrain as well, with precipitation starting to taper off towards the end of the day as we start to see some movement eastward and the surface low begins to slowly fill. Regardless, a chilly, raw day will be had by most with temps generally no higher than the 40s region-wide, with temps not straying far from freezing in the Poconos.

The difference between the 0Z NAM and the 0Z GFS is astonishing, especially for NNJ/NEPA. I have a very hard time believing in the GFS here.

Definitely some snow potential for the Poconos, NWNJ, Catskills, etc. Potential for a few to several inches and today's 12Z models are even showing up to an inch of snow down to I-80 (W of 287). And we're now within 3-4 days, so not quite fantasy land anymore. More importantly, we need the rain.

NHC now calling for Sara to dissipate in the next 4-5 days near the end of its journey across the Yucatan Peninsula. This has to be great news for Florida, although clearly all of the models don't show dissipation. Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5.

At 4 am EST, the NHC upgraded the system to a Tropical Depression... Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt based on the Dvorak estimates.

Yep, looks like a Cat 1 if one believes a 7-day op run...GFS shows nada and CMC has a weak low near LA by then. Very hard to glean much from this suite.

About 0.1" here. A little worried about flash flooding, lol. And with regard to the about to end rainless streaks, below is the NWS-Philly update on the latest counts of consecutive days without measurable precipitation at the major climate locations as of Saturday (last time there was measurable precipitation and the amount are in parentheses); the streaks should end for these stations tonight (or early Monday). By the way, the NJDEP is holding a hearing on Tuesday to discuss potential water use restrictions. Allentown 16 days (0.01" on October 24) - tied for 44th longest Atlantic City Airport 38 days (0.02" on October 2) - record longest Mount Pocono 26 days (0.05" on October 14) - tied for 2nd longest Philadelphia 42 days (0.11" on September 28) - record longest Reading 16 days (0.01" on October 24) - tied for 73rd longest Trenton 42 days (0.23" on September 28) - record longest Wilmington 42 days (0.04" on September 28) - record longest Georgetown 43 days (0.13" on September 27) - record longest One note on this, drought is a much longer term weather phenomena than most of the hazardous weather we talk about, so one rain event (especially one with as little as this), generally isn't enough to make any significant dent in the deficit and drought conditions. Therefore, please continue to heed any burn bans or water conservation efforts your localities may have in place! For the rest of the week, there is a small (emphasis on small) chance for rain on Thursday. Otherwise, it appears we'll have mostly dry conditions.

We now have potential tropical cyclone #18 in the Caribbean, which will likely become TS Rafael soon and the NHC forecast track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico strengthening into a weak hurricane near Cuba, but then weakening as it heads further north due to anticipated shear, but as per the NHC discussion, the error bars are pretty high on this one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

The sun appears to have been obscured by dark grey objects in the sky and I observed some small water droplets falling to the earth, apparently from these grey objects. Can anyone explain these strange observations?

And we all know what happened at the end of October 2012, when Sandy slammed into NJ on 10/29/12. Not saying something like that is going to happen, but a pattern like that makes it more likely a tropical system could impact the east coast.

I know you're just sharing info, which is fine, but from my perspective, I find most "daily" records to be much less useful than event records. For example, having 10" on 2 consecutive days for 20" event total is far more relevant/useful than having 13" all in one day. IMO.

Update on the tornado from yesterday in Fort Pierce: it has been confirmed that 4 people died in the Spanish Lakes Country Club Village development in the Lakeland Park area of northern Ft. Pierce (only a mile or so from Vero Beach, so this kind of scared my dad and my brother/SO and my sister/SO, who all live in Vero in separate locations) from that EF3 (estimated) tornado that ripped through the area. Tornadoes are certainly common with hurricanes, but strong tornadoes are pretty unusual and the number of tornadoes was also unusual, with 125 tornado warnings issued and 38 actual tornadoes touching down (based on observations, not 100% confirmed yet). The video of the damage on TWC is heartbreaking with houses literally like they exploded. https://www.wpbf.com/.../officials-multiple.../62561027