RU848789

I love cold weather, but I have a disc golf tournament tomorrow at 10 am at Allaire State Park in Monmouth County. I don't actually mind the cold and even snow for disc golf, but it's going to be windy and I hate the wind.

Just noticed that Pivotal finally has snowfall maps for the AIFS, so I don't have to piece together temp/precip maps as a guess anymore.

Don - I'm guessing you'd be able to find the answer to this question: how many times has NYC had below average D/J/F, but still been below normal in snowfall for that 3-month period? I would imagine that's unusual. TIA.

Final measurement around 10:45 pm was 0.6" (was poker night and we just finished, so I wasn't getting out to measure that often, lol). Brings us to 16.5" this season. Beautiful light fluffy snow - must be 14-15:1 ratios. About to go broom this one away.

0.5" as of 9:10 pm - love that last band - gorgeous out there...hope to make 0.6-0.7"

up to 3/8" with a nice little band over me...

snowing lightly with 1/4" otg - might get to 1/2". Very slick.

Up to 0.1" of snow and that was a very important 0.1" because it brought my seasonal total from 15.9" to 16.0". Every little bit, lol.

We now have a whole light dusting on all surfaces now, lol; plenty of reports of 1/4-1/2" or so in places like Branchburg, Basking Ridge, Bethlehem, Quakertown, Morristown, etc. Supposedly, we'll see occasional bands like the one we just saw through 8-9 pm - really want to get 1/2" if possible, just to pretty things up...

Light flurries here - not enough to accumulate...

Saw this elsewhere, which supposedly shows flakes where snow is actually falling, which is cool - don't have RadarScope Pro, though.

Do we know if the snow on the radar is hitting the ground in NWNJ/Lehigh Valley?

I'll take that bet...we have model consensus on at least 1/2" for NYC Metro with some places getting 1"+ (and those places can't be predicted well for a mesoscale event like this one). Models can be way off days in advance, but I doubt they're all wrong <8 hours from the start of an event, even a minor one.

Even the globals (especially the Euro/CMC) are showing 0.5-1"+ this afternoon/evening N of 276/195. It would be nice...

The NWS has come around to Walt's thinking (which Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 agrees with, too) as their interactive point/click map now shows 0.5-1.0" north of 276/195 in PA/NJ/NY (and 1-2" in the Poconos) vs. 1/4-1/2" south of that line, even though their official map only says <1". Still pretty minor, but as the NWS said, "with cold temps, roads could get slippery especially after sunset this evening." This would apply for areas that get more than 1/2", given temps in the upper 20s. Also, the most recent 12Z mesoscale/short-term models (NAM, HRRR, RAP, RGEM), which, in theory, should do better with a minor mesoscale event like this, are all showing 0.5-1"+ for areas N of 276/195. The NWS map shows 0.5" for my house, but I'll go with a hugely overperforming 0.7", lol. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=PHI Also, for those curious, this was a big storm for NE NC and SE VA and extreme southern MD/DE, as per the map below. The VA Tidewater area got 8-12", the northern OBX got 3-5" as did the Research Triangle and Richmond areas, and extreme southern MD/DE got 4-6", while areas in western VA/NC got a fair amount less than forecast as did northern VA/MD, with DC actually shut out, as was all of NJ, except Cape May which got <1/2". Was really fascinating to see the steep gradient across the southern half of Sussex Co, DE, going from 0 to 5" over a 20 mile stretch from NW to SE.