RU848789
-
Posts
3,915 -
Joined
-
Last visited
2 Followers
About RU848789
-
Bummer - intensity let up a bit and the small dusting melted from the table/chair/cartop; still a bit on the snow. Just a touch too warm still at 34F. Really need it to drop or else we're going to waste a lot of snow.
-
Fascinating observation (to me at least): the snow started to accumulate on the 32F sleet/snow on the ground maybe 5 minutes ago, but isn't accumulating on our deck table (stone, so probably at least in the mid-30s), but did just start accumulating on our rattan deck chairs (likely colder than the table). Pretty sure it'll be accumulating on everything soon as intensity is picking up.
-
Last NAM "before" the event...
-
Radar looks to be ~25 dBZ, but only snowing lightly - guess we're still moistening the column, as it's down to 34F now.
-
Snow just started lightly with a temp of 35F (dewpoint 26F and a wet bulb temp of 31.9F), so hopefully we'll be down to at least 33F soon, which should allow easy accumulation on 32F snow/sleet. Paved surfaces will take longer and require higher rates of course.
-
Nice jump up on the UK...(and a small bump up on the CMC, which looks just like the RGEM, of course).
-
So far, the NAM, NAM3km, RRFSA, ICON, HRW-FV3, RGEM and HRRR are all a bit snowier than 6Z, solidifying the likely 1-2" (with 3" in some areas where the best banding sets up) from Philly-Toms River up to a bit N of 80, IMO. Hopefully, we see the same for the GFS/Euro/UK/CMC and the AI models.
-
Some of us are already above average (29.7"). :>)
-
The 18Z RGEM just showed the most snow it has showed this week. Much more likely that it's catching up to this being a minor event than "leading the way" in any way.
-
Someone should analyze the variance we're seeing run to run across each model. It's rare to see it this high with models going both up and down like rollercoasters - just look at the 12Z/18Z RAP and NAM. It kind of reflects who exquisitely sensitive this setup is to fairly minor variations. This might be where an NBM is the way to go - if I had to make a forecast map it would look a lot like the NBM with 1-2" for most and maybe some spots up to 3".
-
Nice improvement in the Euro - if I had to guess, this might be where we end up and I'd be happy with this...
-
Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ.
-
Wrong. If snow can stick at 34F in April with heavy rates at midday, it can stick with moderate rates at 34F at night.
-
Almost all of the AI models (AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext) support at least a 2-4" event area-wide, so while the GFS may be on steroids (like the GRAF), this support plus the fact that almost every other model not from Canadia now shows a 1-2/1-3" kind of event (NAM3km, NAM, ICON, UK at least) tells me that a 1-3" event is now a reasonable guesstimate with 3-6" on the table and <1" still on the table too. A miss/scrape is a bad call right now.
-
UK with significant improvement in snowfall at 0Z, like most models so far...
