78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
78Blizzard replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I like your optimism but speculating on 11 day potential just won't cut it after this latest day 2 failure. Long range and even medium range model confidence has been found wanting this winter season. Earlier this winter others were being criticized for posting such long range op runs. -
Euro did come north a bit, but too little too late.
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The 0z Euro at 06z shows temps in the upper 20's. What a joke. It's 36F here now.
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Both the 03 RAP and HRRR show 1"/hr rates here between 10-2, so we could still get 6" here.
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Nothing like a busted forecast to attract the flies.
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Heavier qpf is breaking out in extreme NE KY. How much of that moves into those SE OH counties remains to be seen. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-OH_RV-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Some here were done a month ago.
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ICON still shows taint in many areas.
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I said days ago that we would overachieve with this storm. But we may be doing so from a much lower baseline now.
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I think we will see a north movement from now to go time. How much, we will see?
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Imagine someone who signed off here late this morning and came back to see all these pages, picking up where he left off. His joy turned into bitter disappointment as he began reading.
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Yeah, you weren't giving them much yesterday.
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Is there any chance that bad data was ingested that was thus picked up by all models? Also, if you look at the last 6 runs of the 3k NAM, it has consistently brought the outer limits of the qpf shield down from upstate NY to where it is now on each successive run. So this has been telegraphed to some degree, but the Euro didn't pick up on it that quickly.
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Even a 30-40 mile shift back N will make a big difference for many. This isn't done yet.
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The Cape is waiting for the apologies for being dumped on yesterday when claiming to be in the jack.
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It's actually worse. Probably don't even need a WSW for most if that verifies.
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Quite a difference now between the juicier mesos and the Euro and Ukie.
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Euro takes a step toward the Ukie.
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There will be a lot of this if that Ukie verifies.
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03z RAP is also really juiced:
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0z FV3 really juiced.
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The ICON is reflecting taint for BOS south, including some inland areas.
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What would be really funny is the 18z GFS verifying so that 2-4" became 20" down on the outer Cape.
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They really need to correct that model's warm bias. It is worse than the previous iteration.
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Congrats Chatham.
