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78Blizzard

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Everything posted by 78Blizzard

  1. 78Blizzard
    Outer rain bands approaching West Palm Beach area. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
  2. 78Blizzard
    Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island. Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport. Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport. If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off. I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there.
  3. 78Blizzard
    This thing had better not continue westward from Freeport or there will be a lot of panicking by not just the public, but also the NHC. It's only 70 miles from Freeport to West Palm Beach. The average track error is 70 miles in this time frame.
  4. 78Blizzard
    I have never seen such general model agreement on the track going out 5-6 days, although some of the hurricane models are a bit further west.
  5. 78Blizzard
    What's really hilarious are the little run to run differences in the GFS track at 5-6 days out. If this were January, this run would show a cutter after an OTS on the previous run, lol. I know winter dynamics are different than early September dynamics, but still.
  6. 78Blizzard
    It takes people's minds off the tariffs that went into effect today.
  7. 78Blizzard
    He's not a weather nut like the rest of us.
  8. 78Blizzard
    Euro further west with a direct hit at Cape Hatteras with a strengthening system after weakening further south.
  9. 78Blizzard
    Sounds to me like TWC is putting their chips on the Euro ensembles, with not one of their members showing it hitting FL. That, despite their warnings that FL is not totally out of the woods. I wouldn't be surprised to see that cone shifted slightly west at the 11 pm advisory.
  10. 78Blizzard
    18Z hurricane model HWRF further sw last two runs now, with inner eyewall over Cape Canaveral and then inland west of St. Augustine and west of Jacksonville. Comes ashore as a weak CAT 2.
  11. 78Blizzard
    I've never seen a track like the GFS follow the contour of the coastline all the way from south FL up through Cape Hatteras without making landfall anywhere. It's almost like the coastline is an impenetrable wall. I'm not buying it. This run puts the Cape & Islands into the outer fringe. Any further movement west and north could be interesting. The previous run had it moving more ENE much further south, now the movement is to the NE.
  12. 78Blizzard
    The 12z hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, have definitely trended back to the west and south. And the interim 6z run of the Euro has also. In fact the HMON now has a landfall just north of FL in Brunswick, GA and hugging the coast right up to Savannah. Be interesting to see the 12z Euro.
  13. 78Blizzard
    It's still progged as a CAT 2 in NE FL on Wednesday evening. Very slow moving. If that high to our north is slow to move out later in the week, this could come closer to us as it deteriorates in cooler waters.
  14. 78Blizzard
    Visibility lowering and the wet streets are now snow covered.
  15. 78Blizzard
    Ukie still has some good QPF for both systems combined for BOS areas south, although far SE areas would have some mixed precip and rain, especially on the Monday event.
  16. 78Blizzard
    James, you can just change the date on that snowfall map and use it now for Monday.
  17. 78Blizzard
    What's really funny is that the Euro had this as a cutter through the GL on Sunday.
  18. 78Blizzard
    IKON is paltry, too.
  19. 78Blizzard
    The lowest pressures are around Hatteras now.
  20. 78Blizzard
    3k NAM looked better for PYM south.
  21. 78Blizzard
    We've gone from to in less than 24 hours.
  22. 78Blizzard
    If that verifies, I'm for replacing the GFS with the James model.
  23. 78Blizzard
    Talk about a cave:
  24. 78Blizzard
    Five days ago the Euro had this going thru the Lakes, so things could be a lot worse. Just saying.
  25. 78Blizzard
    GEFS much more bullish than 18z.
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