78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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I like the look of the Euro at day 10, clown range or not.
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Have to love the run to run consistency on the Euro.
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GFS is all alone in showing a cutter next Tue.
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I didn't say he was a hater, jeez. No sense of humor here.
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There's your reason.
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7 Days here, too. Most will be gone in a couple of days, only to be rejuvenated again. We take. Already have about the December snowfall average, so all is gravy from here.
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If the LR GFS is right, we should have a very cold Christmas day with all that cold air across the country and Canada. Be nice if that pre-Christmas snow happens, too.
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What's with the surface thermals on the American models vs the Euro for 12z tomorrow? GFS has 24ºF and the NAM 26ºF for Boston, while the Euro has 4ºF.
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My wife was in Chestnut Hill from late morning until mid afternoon and she said it was sleeting around there while we were getting moderate rain. I pushed about 1 1/2 inches of slush out of the driveway late in the afternoon. Latitude made a big difference even for a few miles.
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I was skeptical about the whole thing. We got 4-5" which mostly melted and washed away on Monday, and then another 4-5" on Tuesday which will be around for the most part until Mon-Tue.
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Not placing any stock in it, but unlike even 5 day potential snow events, a 10 day 60F rainer will probably verify.
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Thermals on CMC at all levels above looked much colder than GFS for entire duration, well below 0C.
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CMC came south, too.
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We might as well have 6 day first alerts warning of 60 mph wind gusts.
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That doesn't say much for the GFS then.
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18z Euro?
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Too much of a hugger this run. Still early in the game.
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The king will soon tell us how much stock to put in that gfs run.
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Your time is coming: "Nhc suggests intensification before the et transition starts prior to making landfall near Halifax as a strong category 1 or low end category 2 hurricane. Et is expected to continue until the storm moves into the Gulf of St. Lawrence while remaining at hurricane strength until it passes Northern Newfoundland." https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/technical_discussion_e.html
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0z NAM shows a strengthening system after it passes HSE until SE of the Cape. If extrapolated, it looks to turn slightly toward the NNE into NS. The 18z GFS also showed Dorian strengthening but not as much.
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Way west this run- only 100 mi off the elbow. Probably extratropical by then, although still near hurricane strength. ACK with close to 24 hrs of tropical storm winds.
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Can someone explain why when the GFS or many of the other models initialize, that the pressure reading is nowhere near the actual? It shows Dorian strengthening while it is more likely to be weakening as it moves north, especially from where the intensity is now.
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Here are a few samples. https://twitter.com/Brendeaaa/status/1168221965473210368/video/1
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Outer rain bands approaching West Palm Beach area. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Most models, including the hurricane models, show the turn already beginning by now, with the eye going N of Grand Bahama Island. Only the Euro had the eye going across the island part way, but turning NW before getting to Freeport. Then we have the modeled stall to consider around Freeport. If that doesn't happen, then all bets are off. I have relatives in Naples, so they look fairly safe there.
