78Blizzard

Natural gas futures are down over 9% tonight. Looking ahead, that's as good a tell as any of the models' indications. Of course, they probably looked at the models and sold, lol.

If Canada is going to have much warmer than normal temps over the next couple of weeks, we're finished. Is there such a thing as a back door cold front in January, lol?

Problem is that no other model shows this. But Para has been steadfast for a few days now. If it scores a coup, maybe they can replace the GFS now.

12z GFS Para still wants to bring us some snows on Jan 4 or so.

2020, 1996, 2008... what year had the better torch, lol? Is that what this thread has come to?

The 12z Para GFS looks like a burp run @ h5. This 18z run is more like its previous several runs. It's out 8 days, but who knows, the GFS had the grinch storm for more days than than that. But cutters seem to have that long lead time. Also, the para says the new year's storm is meh around here - not even a tenth of an inch. But it will still be warm.

My point was that the 354 hr prog you highlighted could look a lot different a week from now, that's all.

And this 354 hr prog may look better a week from now, too, as far as the Pacific is concerned.

Things wouldn't be so dire if we hadn't lost our complete packs. Bare ground coming into Jan doesn't make for happy weenies.

After our latest cutter on New Year's, the 06z GFS op shows at least 2 whiffs for us. Figures.

Now the 0z GFS has something for the NYC, MA peeps to track, lol. If you like tracking 9 day op runs. Like the 18z run on the 10-11 day, not likely to happen as depicted.

The one big difference is that we won't have to hear all the crying about losing the pack.

I'll sell that track. But I still think that Jan 5-6 will evolve into a good period for us in most of SNE.

Our Canadian friends have fared no better this Christmas, with the current temp at Goose Bay, Labrador at 43 F: Upper Lake Melville (1) Logo for Environment Canada Rainfall Warning 5:10 AM AST, Thursday, December 24 2:39 AM AST, Saturday, December 26 Source: Environment Canada Rain and record high temperatures are on the way. Total rainfall: 20 to 35 mm with higher localized amounts possible, especially over higher terrain. Locations: western and central Labrador. Time span: continuing until overnight tonight for the heaviest rain but showers or periods of rain may continue until Sunday morning. Remarks: Record high temperatures are forecast for today and Saturday. The rain combined with these unseasonably high temperatures will lead to significant snowmelt and increased runoff leading to a greater chance for flooding. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and water pooling on roads. Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to [email protected] or tweet reports using #NLwx.

That 2-3 inches we had at midnight completely gone except for a few spots on the east side.

Merry Christmas all. Still 2-3 inches on ground here, so still a white Christmas eve and Christmas day this year, rain and 50's F be damned.

I still think Jan 5-6 is when we get our next chance at something big, and it won't be rain.

I wonder what they mean by "slight risk"?

We have 2 weeks to move that about 300-400 miles to the NW.

Like everything else, they can blame it on global warming.

With our luck that extreme blocking will probably lead to whiffs when our opportunity opens up, lol.

Not saying it's the same look, just that the delayed outcome could be just as elusive.

Didn't we see this last year? Groundhog Day.

Yeah, the GFS gives us either a cutter or a whiff, lol.