78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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Fwiw (probably not much), the Canadian ensembles have nothing even resembling a storm on the 11-12th. And the op had a weak low out near Bermuda. And uncle had most of the qpf heading to Bermuda as well.
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Not to be a debbie downer, but the red flag that I see is that both the GFS op and the Euro op are far west outliers when you look at the ensemble members. In fact, they are just about all alone in those depictions. Let's see if the ops hold in the next couple of runs. I'm looking at the Pivotal maps for the members.
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We've seen this movie before. After a lengthy cold and dry period, we warm up just enough for a cold heavy rain. Then we'll go back to the cold and dry.
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Giving up alcohol for the first month of the year has become a popular trend known as Dry January. Many of us aim to give new meaning to the term Dry January by unwillingly giving up snow for the month.
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Even a favorable track at the end of that Euro run can't produce.
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You can go to upstate NY this weekend and get feet from the lake effect.
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Even during this warm spell, the RH in the house never got above 35%. During the cold snap it was in the low to mid 20's. Definitely not good for the skin. I usually get occasional nose bleeds in the right side of my nose in the winter because of the low humidity, but so far this year nothing.
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I have to use lotion every day to keep them from getting chapped.
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We cold and dry...
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My only point was that we would like to see this move a couple of hundred miles closer in the time remaining. It is a threat as far as that specfic run is concerned. Maybe I should have used the word "potential".
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12 days, 15 days, what's the difference? We spent a lot of keyboard time on that 12 day one.
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Need to get that 15th threat about 200-250 miles further nw. Plenty of time to do it.
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The 11th threat is actually worse on this run with the system heading for Bermuda. Now we kick the can to the 15th with a close call. Monster with a 51mb drop in 24 hours.
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Improved again from 0z. These baby step improvements over the past 2 runs could still get us there with just a couple more favorable runs. That energy in the sw Baja has moved well west now.
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The Euro still says cold and dry for the next 2 weeks.
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Definitely an improvement from 12z at h5. Baby steps 12 days out.
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Given a choice, I'll take the 0z over the 18z. Don't need any wind damage with a big rainer. But let's see what the 0z Euro has to say. It will have to make a big change at h5 from 12z to follow the GFS.
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A compromise of the 18z and 0Z would be perfect for most of us.
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It was only about 50. The high to the north was about 1034 mb and the low only made it to 984 mb at its peak. Yet that was still enough to bring hurricane force winds. There was a high over central southern Canada close to 1050 mb though.
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It's occluding when it stalls over Maine, and most of the qpf is then over far eastern areas.
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Different animal. This is a progressive system, not a stall like in 1978.
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Parts of extreme eastern Maine receive 18" in 6 hours at 10:1. True white out zero visibility with those winds. The ultimate blizzard where blizzard conditions last for hours on end. But the 6 hr jackpot goes to Waterville Valley with 25" in 6 hours, again at 10:1.
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A lot will have to change on the Euro with h5 at 0z from the 12z run if that track is going to get some consistency. There is a world of difference right now between the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS.
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That run resurrects the look from yesterday's 06z GFS, which completely disappeared from subsequent runs until now. This run is not going to happen this way either. Probably be gone at 0z.
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