78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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Confidence is not inspiring with the 12z suite with the GFS/GEFS all alone.
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Looked to me like the Euro op is about 6 hrs faster than at 0z. With the improvement in the northern stream, if it can slow down we can pull it further north.
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8 of those 20 members are nice hits. A marked improvement from earlier runs.
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It's amazing how that N stream changed so much in one run. It virtually almost disappeared from 12z.
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Pivotal seems to have started up again. Now at hr 30.
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Same on Pivotal.
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Good memory there. Maybe that "78" will bring us a blast like that from the past.
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Thanks. How did you know that?
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This was my original point: "If we see uncle starting to get a clue, and/or the Canadian, then I'll believe we have a real shot." CMC finally got a clue at 0z.
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Quite the contrary. If you look at the CMC 12z run there was nothing there. At least they have an actual storm there now. So my confidence has actually improved, which was my original point earlier.
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This reminds me somewhat of the Blizzard of 1978 which might not have happened without the phase of systems. And we didn't know whether they would phase almost up until go time. But there was a lot less technology available back then to determine that. The models were rudimentary.
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Not disagreeing with those details. It's just that i can't buy the general statement of "random luck".
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Other guidance showing it to increase confidence was my only point. I'm not singing any praises of the CMC or Uncle.
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As was said previously, other guidance showing it does help confidence.
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You know that is not true. How many solutions over the years have we seen well beyond d6 which have been proven right? Especially rainers.
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Longer than you.
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That was my point exactly.
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I'll remind you of this post if this ends up a complete miss, since CMC and Uncle have called a miss from the beginning.
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If we see uncle starting to get a clue, and/or the Canadian, then I'll believe we have a real shot. Unless or until that happens, these on again off again runs of the GFS and Euro are meaningless. But that had better happen very soon.
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Canadian and uncle have never been on board since they can't shake that sw energy, and the latest GFS has that sw energy digging again, and the northern stream was weaker as well.
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Took the same track east just under us as did the 12z GFS, albeit a bit further north. And the stronger system kept the temps colder aloft.
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Or uncle either.
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On the Op, once that energy in the sw wanes, the low blows up into a 946 monster well east of Nova Scotia. Future runs will have to eliminate that energy faster if we are to have a chance for a monster blowup closer to home.
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You could see early on h5 that the change in the energy out west from 18z wasn't going to be favorable this run.
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That sw energy over Baja came back this run and screwed us.
